Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"I mean, you can find it in a trash can. You can look for it. You can throw out all the other disinformation and find the truth about Ukraine, but it will be associated with all the other disinformation in there. But you can find it if you search hard enough, because freedom of speech. Yay."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:49⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new Ukraine War News Update for April 2nd, 2024, reminding viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video. He mentions a previous breaking news update about long-distance strikes within Russia using new drone technology.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Significant Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 00:49-02:46⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's reported Russian losses, noting a recent surge in destroyed Russian equipment. He highlights the accuracy of these claims, corroborated by visual confirmations of large-scale failed Russian attacks. While acknowledging the difficulty of estimating personnel losses, he points to 12 tanks, 29 armored personnel vehicles, and 30 artillery systems as significant losses. Additionally, he mentions 31 destroyed vehicles and fuel tanks and six pieces of special equipment.
Return to top⤴️
Oryx Blog: Record-Breaking Day for Visually Confirmed Losses
🎦 02:46-08:17⏩
Jonathan discusses the latest visually confirmed loss data from the Oryx blog, highlighting a record-breaking day for Russian equipment losses. He explains the significance of purple markers (denoting uncertainty in identifying the side a piece of equipment belongs to) and notes a favourable ratio of losses for Ukraine. He delves into the types of equipment lost by both sides, including tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and specialized equipment like the Russian R-330ZH electronic warfare system and a Brem-1 recovery vehicle.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian Artillery Losses and Counter-Battery Fire
🎦 08:17-10:19⏩
Jonathan analyzes the relatively low number of Russian artillery losses listed on Oryx despite being a frequently targeted category. He explains that artillery is often positioned further behind the lines, making it difficult for drones to spot. He also explains the concept of counter-battery fire, where artillery pieces are targeted based on their firing trajectory, making visual confirmation unnecessary. He emphasizes the effectiveness of counter-battery fire, particularly when using precision-guided munitions, compared to drone-directed artillery strikes.
Return to top⤴️
Shifting Trends in Equipment Losses: Javelins, Mines, and FPV Drones
🎦 10:19-11:59⏩
Jonathan observes a shift in the types of equipment contributing to Russian losses. While previously FPV drones dominated, he notes an increase in losses attributed to Javelins and mines, suggesting a possible influx of these weapons for Ukrainian forces. He speculates that this could indicate a shift in Ukrainian tactics due to increased availability of these weapons and ammunition.
Return to top⤴️
The Utility of ATVs and Golf Carts in Warfare
🎦 19:38-21:41⏩
Jonathan questions the practicality of all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) and golf carts in a combat zone, citing their frequent appearance in loss statistics. He references insights from Rob Lee, who highlights their use for deploying soldiers quickly and their low visibility, making them harder to target with artillery or drones. Jonathan shares a video of Russian paratroopers using an ATV to transport a medical team under fire, emphasizing their speed and agility. However, he remains skeptical about the usefulness of golf carts due to their larger size and slower speed.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Downs Russian Forpost Drone Over Black Sea
🎦 21:41-23:35⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukraine downing a Russian Forpost drone over the Black Sea, a $7 million loss for Russia. He describes the drone's reconnaissance capabilities and ability to carry missiles or other weapons. He delves into the drone's history, mentioning Russia's purchase of Israeli Searcher 2 drones in 2009 for study and a subsequent $300 million contract in 2010 to produce them locally using Israeli components. He ponders whether this technology transfer influenced Israel's initial hesitancy to overtly support Ukraine in the war.
Return to top⤴️
Overnight Attacks and Sabotage: Sevastopol, Starobilsk, and Moscow
🎦 23:35-26:25⏩
Jonathan covers various overnight attacks and incidents, including a Ukrainian intelligence operation targeting a power substation in occupied Sevastopol, leading to a power outage. He also mentions the assassination of a Russian-appointed official in occupied Starobilsk via a car bomb. Furthermore, he reports on two factory fires in Moscow, including an electrical insulating material factory, and a tram explosion in St. Petersburg, speculating about their potential connections to the war or possible insurance fraud attempts.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine's New Long-Range Drones Strike Deep Inside Russia
🎦 26:25-31:49⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukraine's use of new long-range drones, previously announced by Mykhailo Fedorov, to strike targets deep inside Russian territory, including an oil refinery in Tatarstan and a Shahid-style drone factory. He highlights the drones' range of over 1,100 kilometers and their potential use of onboard AI to evade jamming. He analyzes the strategic implications of using one large drone versus multiple smaller drones, suggesting that striking multiple facilities might be more effective than concentrating all resources on a single target.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Drone and Missile Activity: Updates and Analysis
🎦 31:49-37:41⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Russian drone and missile activity. He reports on Russia launching a Kh-59 missile and 10 drones into Ukraine overnight, highlighting Ukraine's 90% success rate in intercepting Shahid drones. He contrasts this with a Russian official's statement that drone attacks will only stop once Kyiv is captured, emphasizing Russia's continued ambition to take the Ukrainian capital. He analyzes Russia's reduced use of Kalibr cruise missiles, linking it to the Black Sea Fleet's relocation to Novorossiysk for fear of attacks. He speculates on Russia's potential stockpile of these missiles and the possibility of a future overwhelming barrage. He discusses Russia's missile reserves, claiming they are significantly depleted, and criticizes the argument that Russia's nuclear arsenal negates concerns about its conventional military capabilities.
Return to top⤴️
Russia to Face Starlink Terminal Usage Limitations
🎦 41:03-42:42⏩
Jonathan discusses Russia's use of Starlink terminals for military operations, expressing concern over their access to American technology despite sanctions. He questions why it took so long to limit their access, given the strategic advantage Starlink provides. He criticizes the lack of action from the US government and questions Elon Musk's role in the matter.
Return to top⤴️
Tajik Nationals Arrested in Russia for Terrorism
🎦 42:42-46:22⏩
Jonathan reports on the arrest of three Tajik nationals in Dagestan for allegedly financing a terrorist attack. He criticizes the Russian government for blaming Ukraine for internal unrest while simultaneously arresting individuals unconnected to Ukraine. He highlights the absurdity of the situation, given that Russian citizens are targeting Tajiks on public transport based on misplaced blame towards Ukrainians.
Return to top⤴️
Propaganda, Disinformation, and Social Media Bots
🎦 46:22-49:40⏩
Jonathan expresses frustration with the prevalence of pro-Russian propaganda and disinformation, citing examples of people he knows being influenced by it. He criticizes Elon Musk's approach to free speech on Twitter, arguing that it allows disinformation and propaganda to flourish. He argues that Musk's focus on "freedom of speech" is hypocritical, pointing out that Musk himself controls and amplifies specific voices while suppressing others, effectively controlling the narrative.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Security Services Report Explosives Hidden in Religious Icons
🎦 49:40-50:42⏩
Jonathan reports on claims by Russian security services that explosives were found hidden inside religious icons at a checkpoint. He expresses skepticism about the veracity of the report, suggesting that caution is needed when evaluating information from Russian authorities. He adds a touch of dark humour, mentioning "explosive revelations" related to religion.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 50:42-50:52⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching the extended episode and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share.
Return to top⤴️
