Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News
Table of Contents 📖
"and like we can even if it's bad i mean it all right, and then you start doing German ones, you're thinking, oh, is that appropriate, and then you're thinking, oh, if I did a Chinese or Indian, that's deemed as inappropriate, oh my goodness, and it's this whole, and then I start, like, having an argument in my head, and before, before, you know, we spent half an hour talking about the philosophy of who we can take the piss out of and can't, anyway"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second Ukraine War Update for 02/06/2024. This part focuses on Military Aid news.
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Ukraine use of Western weapons in Russia
🎦 00:08-12:30⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing situation regarding permission for Ukraine to use western weapons in Russia. He notes the US has given the green light for their use in the Kharkiv region, but not for ATACMS, only for systems such as HIMARS. Jonathan also shares his perspective that whilst Lithuania has stated Ukraine has the right to strike military targets in Belarus, this is likely to be symbolic as he's not aware of Ukraine using Lithuanian weaponry that could reach Belarus. Jonathan shares an excerpt from a Politico article that details the month long lobbying effort by US lawmakers that led to Biden agreeing to allow Ukraine to use US supplied weapons to strike Russian territory. Jonathan questions how involved Biden actually is in such nuanced decisions, speculating that such decisions are more likely made by lower levels of the administration such as the Department of Defence and National Security Advisors. Jonathan highlights the influence of lobbying groups and lawmakers in shaping such policies, but notes that the ultimate responsibility will always lie with the President. Jonathan shares his reflections on his earlier musings about the value of Decoys used to protect against drone strikes, noting that he completely overlooked the point that the value lies in the drone hitting a decoy and not hitting something of actual value! He shares reports that Ukraine has already been using US weapons to strike Belgorod, with independent analysts confirming the use of HIMARS. Jonathan also notes that Russian air defences have been targeting these missiles, with some of the resulting debris landing in Belgorod. He speculates, based on user comments, that Russian forces may be deliberately placing their launchers near Belgorod to afford them a degree of protection, although this does carry the risk of debris landing in the city. Jonathan shows imagery of what he believes to be the remnants of a Pantsir air defence system in Belgorod. He finishes the topic by sharing the latest map from @RALee85 and @Militaryland which shows the stance of various countries with regard to their support for Ukraine being able to use Western weapons in Russia. Jonathan notes that Germany was initially shown in green (in support) but this was quickly changed to yellow after users pointed out this was incorrect. He notes this change was a good example of how his community helps him.
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Chairman McCaul supports Ukraine being able to strike any legitimate military target in Russia
🎦 12:30-13:18⏩
Jonathan reports that Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has stated that Ukraine should be able to strike any legitimate military target within Russia, not just those along the border near Kharkiv. This is a sentiment echoed by other Republicans, Mike Turner, Mike Rogers.
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UK to supply Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine
🎦 13:18-13:52⏩
Jonathan reports that the UK is to supply Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine. He notes this was announced by NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, rather than the UK. He is unsure why this is the case.
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Poland to train Ukrainian Citizens residing in Poland
🎦 13:52-15:55⏩
Jonathan discusses an announcement by Polish Foreign Minister, Radosław Sikorski, that Poland intends to train a unit of Ukrainian citizens residing in Poland. He initially expresses some uncertainty, wondering if this relates to volunteers, or Ukrainians who have fled to Poland to avoid conscription. Sikorski clarifies that the training is aimed at Ukrainian citizens living in Poland who are eligible for conscription. Jonathan sees this as a positive step by Poland to support Ukraine, whilst avoiding having to send Polish troops to Ukraine. He highlights the pragmatic approach by Poland, noting they are geographically close to Ukraine, therefore do not need to take the risk of putting boots on the ground.
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French Military Instructors to train Ukrainian troops in Ukraine
🎦 15:55-18:10⏩
Jonathan discusses a tweet by Phillips O'Brien which suggests French troops will soon be openly operating in Ukraine, speculating that if France does so, other European countries are likely to follow. Jonathan then shares a post by Ukrainian politician, Oleksiy Goncharenko, that states French military instructors are already in Ukraine. Jonathan notes that Goncharenko's willingness to share this news publicly could mean he has been given permission to do so. He speculates that France may be waiting for the right moment to make a formal announcement, noting how such announcements often come after the event. He speculates that this may happen when Zelensky is in France for the D-Day commemorations on June 6th.
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Financial and Military Aid for Ukraine
🎦 18:10-24:38⏩
Jonathan provides an update on various financial and Military aid packages:
- Ukraine is to receive $2.2 billion from the IMF, however, Jonathan suspects this will be a loan rather than a grant and will come with conditions
- Luxembourg is to send €5 million to fund materials and equipment as part of the artillery coalition
- Iceland is to send at least €27 million annually from 2024 to 2028 to support Ukraine economically, humanitarianly and defensively. Iceland is also to charter cargo planes to transport military aid from other NATO countries to Ukraine.
- Australia has pledged $20 million to help Ukraine prepare for next winter, the funds are earmarked for energy supplies
- Germany has announced a raft of military aid for May. Jonathan lists the equipment provided (see transcript for details). Of particular note is that 900,000 rounds of ammunition have been pledged for the Gepard anti-aircraft system. Jonathan notes that this is likely to be manufactured over a number of years.
- The French AMX-10RC has been used by Ukraine to provide indirect fire support. Jonathan notes this is not the first time that tanks have been used in this way. Jonathan recalls his own experience when he was criticised for suggesting the T-55 tanks being supplied to Russia by allied countries would be used in this way. He recalls how he was able to counter this criticism by referring to examples from the Korean War and 2021 Armenian-Azerbaijan War when tanks were used to provide indirect fire support.
China overtakes Russia as Africa's largest arms supplier
🎦 27:45-29:45⏩
Jonathan reports that, according to the Economist, China has overtaken Russia to become Africa's largest arms supplier. Russian arms shipments to sub-Saharan Africa fell 44% between 2019 and 2023. Jonathan attributes China's success to low prices and a desire to build strategic influence rather than generate profits. Jonathan draws comparisons with his earlier analysis of French attempts to persuade Serbia to purchase the Rafale fighter jet. He argues that such arms deals are often more about geopolitics than profits - countries that buy weapons from you, particularly on a long term basis will become increasingly reliant on you for spare parts, maintenance and training and over time, will fall into your sphere of influence. He uses the term "influence campaign" to describe China's strategy in Africa.
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Robot dogs
🎦 29:45-31:25⏩
Jonathan shares his surprise at a video that shows a robot dog (similar to those manufactured by Boston Dynamics) using a flamethrower. He briefly touches on a UK TV programme he watched that showed the contrast between the strict conformity of Chinese schools compared with the anti-authoritarian nature of British schooling. Jonathan jokes that even the robot dogs seemed to move in a uniform way! He jokes about Arnold Schwarzenegger making a comeback and muses whether he'd be on "our" side.
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Wrap up
🎦 31:25-31:53⏩
Jonathan explains he's had to cut the video short as it was getting too long, and he had to edit out some of the geopolitical parts of the video. He explains he needed to blur out the fire-breathing robot dogs to comply with YouTube's community guidelines. He encourages viewers to check out his next video.
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