Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
“They [drones] are an absolute nuisance, I assume, for both sides. But anyway…”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:40⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. The video is a Ukraine War News Update for the 10th of December 2023 and is being posted later than usual. He explains that he has spent the day at a rugby match in torrential rain, watching his son play against much larger opponents. He acknowledges that the weather conditions are far worse for those on the front line in Ukraine.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Daily Update
🎦 00:40-01:29⏩
Jonathan discusses the latest figures from the Ukrainian General Staff, pointing out that the reported Russian losses (700 personnel, 4 tanks, 10 APVs, and 6 artillery systems) are significantly lower than in previous days. He attributes this to the poor weather conditions on the front line. Jonathan mentions that the Ukrainian General Staff also reported the destruction of 25 Russian vehicles and fuel tanks, which he notes is "not a bad day in that category." He also mentions the destruction of 3 pieces of Russian special equipment.
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Andrew Perpetua's Analysis: Russian and Ukrainian Losses
🎦 01:29-02:26⏩
Jonathan moves on to the analysis provided by Andrew Perpetua, who notes that losses have been roughly equal between the two sides, with slightly higher losses for the Russians. Looking at visually confirmed Ukrainian losses, Jonathan says that there has not been anything too significant destroyed, listing a couple of older T-64 tanks, a boat, some BTRs (infantry fighting vehicles), and civilian equipment. On the other hand, visually confirmed Russian equipment losses include a Buk M1 or M2 air defence system (a significant loss for the Russians), a few T-80 and T-72 tanks, a BTR-3M with a mine roller, and an unspecified number of infantry fighting vehicles. Overall, losses have been vaguely similar, but the destruction of the Buk air defence system is a blow to the Russians.
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Analysis of Destroyed Russian Tanks: Downshifting of Technical Capability
🎦 02:26-04:37⏩
Jonathan discusses the downshifting of Russian technical capability highlighted by military analyst Trent Telenko, citing a graph from Richard Vareka (who works for Warspotting) that shows the types of Russian tanks destroyed by age. The graph indicates a rapid increase in the destruction of T-72B3 OBR 2022 variants. Jonathan explains that, contrary to what one might assume, the OBR 2022 upgrades are actually less capable and less sophisticated than the T-72B3s and the OBR 2016 variants, although quicker and easier to implement. This rapid shift to a less capable variant suggests that Russia may be running low on its stock of T-72 tanks and is struggling to upgrade to the T-72B3 OBR 2022 quickly enough. He adds a caveat that there have only been six confirmed T-72 losses in December, of which two were OBR 2022 variants. Jonathan concludes that the Russians appear to be upgrading older tanks to the newer, less capable OBR 2022 variant out of necessity, likely due to sanctions impacting their ability to produce tanks to the required specifications. The graph shows a decline in the destruction of older T-72s, fewer T-72B3 OBR 2016 variants being destroyed, and a large increase in the newer, less capable T-72s being destroyed.
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Ukrainian Navy Successes: Russian Ships Destroyed
🎦 04:37-08:07⏩
Jonathan presents an infographic detailing the damage inflicted on the Russian Navy, with a particular focus on the recent destruction of the Karakurt-class corvette Ascald, which was docked in Kerch. He lists the various Russian vessels that have been sunk or damaged, including:
- Saratov (Tapir-class LST)
- Novichokask (Ropucha-class LST)
- Cezar Kunikov (Ropucha-class LST)
- Moskva (Slava-class cruiser)
- Veliki Ustyug (Buyan-M class corvette)
- Vasily Bekh (rescue tug)
- Evangelubets (Natia-class minesweeper)
- Olenogorsky Gornyak (Ropucha-class LST)
- Minsk (Ropucha-class LST)
- Rostov-on-Don (Kilo-class submarine)
Jonathan highlights the significance of the Ukrainian attacks, noting the types of missiles used, including Tochka-U, Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles, Harpoons, and Storm Shadows, and the locations of the attacks, including Berdyansk, Sevastopol, and Novorossiysk. He points out that the Ukrainian attacks on Sevastopol have forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to relocate vessels to Novorossiysk, further emphasising the success of the Ukrainian Navy. The destruction of the Moskva and other vessels is a significant blow to the Russian Navy, and the recent attack on Novorossiysk demonstrates the continued ability of the Ukrainians to strike high-value targets. The need to relocate vessels further calls into question the strategic value of Crimea for Russia, given the importance of Sevastopol as a deep-sea, warm-water port. Jonathan wonders whether Ukraine will be able to maintain pressure on the Black Sea Fleet, especially in light of rumours that Russia is amassing cruise missiles on its remaining vessels.
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Drone Warfare: An Overview
🎦 08:07-09:06⏩
Jonathan shifts the focus to drone warfare, noting the increasing amount of footage being released showing the effectiveness of drones in the conflict. He mentions seeing montages of Ukrainian special forces drone operators using FPV (first-person view) drones to target Russian troops, stating that “it seems nobody’s safe.” Jonathan lists various situations in which drones have been used to attack, including targeting soldiers travelling on vehicles, evacuating wounded, sheltering in trenches and foxholes, and even those attempting to flee on foot. He concludes that while drones are a nuisance for both sides, they have become a highly effective weapon in the Ukrainian arsenal.
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Magyar's Birds Destroy Russian Electronic Warfare Device
🎦 09:07-09:59⏩
Jonathan highlights the recent success of the Ukrainian drone unit "Magyar's Birds", who have destroyed a Russian electronic warfare (EW) device mounted on a BTR-82A armoured personnel carrier. The destroyed EW device is likely a Leer-2 electronic warfare system, although it could be another system as these are mounted on a variety of vehicles. He emphasises the importance of electronic warfare in this conflict, noting that Russian war bloggers have been complaining about the Ukrainian army's control of the skies around Kherson. He suggests that the destruction of Russian EW equipment is crucial for Ukraine to maintain control of the airspace and prevent Russia from gaining a foothold.
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Russian Officer Killed in Training Accident
🎦 09:59-10:33⏩
In a shift from the situation on the front line, Jonathan reports on the death of a high-ranking Russian officer, Lieutenant Colonel Alexei Sitnikov, the commander of the regional SOBR (Special Rapid Response Unit) of the Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard). Sitnikov was killed during a training exercise at the Dobrovitsi training ground in the Ryazan region when an explosive device detonated spontaneously.
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Distant Strikes Overnight: McKeevka Oil Depot Hit
🎦 10:33-11:24⏩
Jonathan reports that it has been a relatively quiet night regarding distant strikes, although there have been reports of heavy shelling. He highlights a large fire at an oil depot in Makiivka, which he believes was caused by shelling, but acknowledges that it is difficult to be sure. He reminds viewers that "shelling" can refer to either artillery or rocket attacks. The fire burned throughout the night and will likely have caused a significant disruption to Russian logistics.
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Food Shortages in Russia: Eggs
🎦 11:24-12:12⏩
Jonathan discusses a user comment from a previous video that challenged his reporting of a queue for eggs in Russia, with the user suggesting that it was likely a localised issue rather than a sign of widespread shortages. He notes further reports of queues for eggs in Belgorod and price increases for eggs in Saratov (4.4% in the last week and 36.6% over the last year). While acknowledging that this level of inflation is not extreme compared to other parts of the world, he expresses concern over the increasing number of issues with the supply of certain foodstuffs in Russia.
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New Russian Trench Protection Measures
🎦 12:12-12:56⏩
Continuing the theme of drone warfare, Jonathan describes new trench protection measures being adopted by Russian troops to counter the threat of FPV drones. Images of these fortifications, which are designed to prevent drones from effectively targeting trenches, have been shared by German journalists. Jonathan believes that these measures are likely to be low cost but high impact, successfully deterring drone attacks. He contrasts this with the robust trench systems that the Ukrainians have been building along the front line, particularly near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, suggesting that they are more heavily fortified than their Russian counterparts.
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Weather Conditions on the Front Line
🎦 12:56-14:03⏩
Before wrapping up the first part of his update, Jonathan shows images of the weather conditions in Ukraine to illustrate the harsh realities faced by soldiers on both sides. The photos show freezing conditions, with one image depicting a soldier's equipment frozen solid. He points out that while dry cold is bearable, damp and freezing conditions pose a serious risk of hypothermia, making it crucial for soldiers to keep dry.
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Wrap Up
🎦 14:03-14:19⏩
Jonathan concludes the first part of his update, stating that there has not been a huge amount of news to report. He promises to cover more geopolitical news and military aid in a separate video, hinting at his frustration with the state of the world.
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