Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231104a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"TASS covered all this in too much detail and promptly. Some kind of insanity has happened to them. They have forgotten that their main task is not to report the news, it's to create an ideologically correct narrative for the Kremlin"
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts the video with his usual greeting and a cup of tea. He mentions it is Saturday morning.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
The Ukrainian General Staff reported significant Russian losses for the previous day, including:
- 830 personnel
- 11 tanks
- 38 armoured personnel vehicles
- 35 artillery systems
- 7 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) - the highest number Jonathan can recall
- 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems
Even if these numbers are overestimated, it still indicates a very bad day for the Russians. The 7 MLRS lost is especially notable when they usually average less than 2 per day.
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Drone Warfare
Drones are playing an increasingly important role in the conflict. Andrew Perpetua, a mapper Jonathan frequently references, reported that 100% of Ukrainian equipment losses in the past day were due to drones. On the Russian side, most of their losses were also from drones, with a few from Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers and unknown causes. Jonathan has previously reported that up to 70% of equipment is now being taken out by drones, a phenomenal difference they are making on the battlefield.
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Russian Aircraft and Equipment Losses
- A Russian Su-25 fighter jet was reportedly downed according to Oleksandr Tarnavsky, spokesperson for the Tavria Group of Forces.
- 5 expensive Zoopark radar systems, worth $25 million each, were destroyed based on video footage. That's $100 million worth of equipment.
- Ukrainian special forces destroyed 2 modern Russian Lear-3 electronic warfare systems from 2022 and a R-419 radio relay station from 2018. Each system costs around $10 million.
Ukrainian Civilian Losses
Ihor Dubik, a 60-year-old defender of Mariupol, spent 200 days in Russian captivity where he was tortured and lost over 30 kilograms. After being exchanged in December 2022, he returned to battle with the Azov battalion but was sadly killed at the front last week. His story highlights the human cost of the war.
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Attacks in Southern Ukraine
- Ukraine allegedly struck the Russian Dnipro group's headquarters at a recreation centre in Strelkove, Kherson Oblast. Russian air defences reportedly only intercepted half the missiles.
- Explosions were heard in Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia. There has been less video footage of Ukrainian strikes recently. Possible reasons could be reduced Ukrainian success, fewer strikes, or a greater Russian interception rate due to improved electronic warfare and experimental S-400 systems.
TASS Editor Fired
The editor of Russia's state media news agency TASS, Mikhail Mikhailov, was fired for reporting too much detail on the Wagner rebellion in June, which angered Putin. TASS covered Wagner fighters taking control of Rostov-on-Don in "too much detail and promptly", forgetting their main task is to create an "ideologically correct narrative for the Kremlin". This demonstrates how TASS is a propaganda mouthpiece for Putin rather than a genuine news agency. Claims by pro-Kremlin voices online that cite TASS should be viewed in this light.
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Protests in Ukraine
There have been demonstrations across Ukraine in cities like Kryvyi Rih, Kyiv and Dnipro. However, rather than protesting the war, Ukrainians are demanding more support for the army and an end to corruption. They want all money to go to the war effort. While there is good evidence that international military aid is reaching the armed forces as intended, Ukrainians want to ensure that other funds are not being diverted away from where they are most needed.
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De-Sovietization in Kyiv
In Kyiv, a stele commemorating the 60th anniversary of Soviet victory in World War 2 is having its Soviet star dismantled. This is part of ongoing efforts to remove Soviet symbols in Ukraine.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and mentions he will be recording a second video covering military aid, other aid, and geopolitics. He signs off with his usual "toodlepits".
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