Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:31⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Front Line Update for 27/04/2024. He reminds viewers to check out the map legend if they haven't already. He thanks JR for his work on the map.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Front Line

🎦 00:31-03:33⏩

Jonathan notes some red pins on the map which is worrying as this axis has been stable for some time.

• There has been some movement in the Tabaivka region, but this seems to be a case of different mappers aligning their maps with each other, rather than Russian advances.
• However, all three mappers (DeepStateMap, Syriac Maps, Andrew Perpetua) show advances by Russian forces in the area around Kislyavka.
• Syriac Maps (pro-Russian) describes it as the "Russian Army restarting offensive operations".
• They report that the Russians have taken the high ground in the area after bombarding it.
• Jonathan notes that although Syriac Maps claims the whole settlement has been captured, the other mappers show that the Ukrainians are still holding the western part of it.
• Jonathan is concerned as this axis has been quiet for about a month.

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Terny-Torske Salient, Svesk, Chaziv Yar

🎦 03:33-05:39⏩

• Jonathan reports no changes for the Terny-Torske Salient or Svesk.
• He then looks at Chaziv Yar, to the west of Bakhmut, and notes that DeepStateMap shows the Russians have made small gains in Ivanovska
• He believes Chaziv Yar is important for the Ukrainians to hold as it sits in front of a crescent of important towns and cities such as Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka.
• Jonathan believes the main Ukrainian defensive line will be behind Chaziv Yar, and that the Ukrainians have been fortifying it since before Bakhmut fell.
• There are reports that Russia has been reinforcing the area to push on Chaziv Yar.
• Jonathan notes that the Russians have made consistent gains in recent days on three fronts in the area: Bohdanivka, the Micro Canal District, and the nature reserve around Ivanivske.
• However, those gains seem to have stopped or at least been slowed down in the last week.

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Avdiivka

🎦 05:39-14:15⏩

• Jonathan states that Avdiivka is where "it's all kind of happening" at the moment, particularly around Ocheretyne.
• All three map sources show Russian gains in Novokalynove, to the north of Avdiivka.
• DeepStateMap and Suriat Maps show them pushing further, towards Keramik, and are "somewhat encircling Novokalynove from the north".
• To the west, in the direction of Ocheretyne and Berdychi, Suriat Maps shows Russian forces making extensive gains.
• Suriat Maps claims that Russia has taken Berdychi, with Ukrainian forces retreating westward.
• Suriat Maps also claims that the Russians have taken new trenches east of Ocheretyne and south of Novokalynove, and taken the central part of Novokalynove.
• They say that Ukrainian forces are retreating northwards from that area, towards the trench systems, and that they have also retreated from the centre of Keramik.
• Jonathan advises viewers to take Suriat Maps' claims "with a pinch of salt", but believes it is "almost certain" that the Russians are making gains in the area.
• He questions whether the Ukrainians have managed to halt these gains.
• He notes that DeepStateMap and Andrew Perpetua, unlike Suriat Maps, don't show the Russians having made gains all the way around Ocheretyne.
• This could mean that Suriat Maps made the changes earlier and the other two mappers are now aligning with that assessment or it could be that Suriat Maps' assessment of control is different.
• Jonathan notes that there is a lot of social media activity concerning the fighting going on around Avdiivka.
• He highlights a video showing a Ukrainian Bradley IFV from the 47th Assault Brigade, shelling Russian positions with its 25mm cannon.
• He also shares a quote from pro-Ukrainian source DefMon, who reports that Ukrainian forces have hit Russian logistics in the area.
• Jonathan reminds viewers that in a previous video, Daniela from Tochny showed heat maps of Ukrainian drone strikes in the area.
• Jonathan states that there are claims that Russia has taken heavy casualties, which could explain the high personnel losses the Ukrainians have been reporting for the last 24 hours (over 1,000).
• Pro-Russian source Rebar says that Russia has made significant gains in the area, taking advantage of Ukrainian mistakes.
• They claim that Russian forces have taken Ocheretyne and are consolidating their positions there.
• Rebar goes on to say that the 74th Independent Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (the "Mad Dog" unit) have installed their battle flag on a destroyed building on the western edge of Pervomaiske (north of Avdiivka).
• Rebar states that Novokalynove has fallen to Russian forces, and that they are "mopping up" remaining resistance there.
• Rebar also says that Russian forces have a foothold on the eastern edge of Keramik.
• They believe that once Novokalynove is fully under Russian control, it is only a matter of time before Keramik falls, due to its geography, which puts it in the lowlands.
• Jonathan confirms that Keramik is in the lowlands, and shows that the Russians would be advancing downhill to take it.
• Jonathan notes that Rebar claims that Russian forces are now advancing on Umanske, south of Semenivka and to the west of Tonenke, after taking Semenivka.
• Jonathan showed this advance yesterday, but the pins weren't on the map at that time.
• Whilst DeepStateMap and Andrew Perpetua don't show this advance, Suriat Maps and Rebar do.
• Jonathan explains that whilst it is tempting to see this as confirmation, the two pro-Russian sources could be relying on the same source, in which case this would not necessarily make the information more reliable.

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Krasnohorivka

🎦 16:46-18:15⏩

• Jonathan now looks at Krasnohorivka.
• He notes that Suriat Maps, unlike the other two mappers, shows Russian forces continuing to make advances inside the town.
• He states that whilst Suriat Maps is probably not "making claims based on complete fabrication", it is likely that they are interpreting "grey zone" areas as being under Russian control, despite the other mappers disagreeing.
• He explains that Suriat Maps might have based their assessment on the presence of a single Russian soldier or vehicle in the area, but that that doesn't necessarily mean they are in control.
• Suriat Maps claims that Russian forces have taken the Grand Alliance gas station on Sovietskaya Street and advanced to the microdistrict east of Krasnohorivka.

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Southern Front

🎦 18:15-18:37⏩

• Jonathan reports no changes on the Southern Front or the Dnieper River delta.

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Ukrainian Strike on Rail Bridge near Verkhnyi Tokmak

🎦 18:37-20:44⏩

• Jonathan cites a tweet by pro-Ukrainian source Intel Schizo, which claims that Ukrainian forces have struck a rail bridge west of the Verkhnyi Tokmak rail junction.
• Intel Schizo described it as the first successful Ukrainian strike on Russian rail infrastructure in occupied territory in almost 11 months.
• Jonathan believes that Ukraine should be striking Russian rail infrastructure more often, and speculates that they might not have been doing it due to a shortage of missiles for their HIMARS systems.
• He shows the area on the map, and whilst Google Maps doesn't show the railway line, he points to what appears to be it.
• Jonathan notes that this will affect Russian logistics, and that railway bridges are harder for the Russians to replace than sections of track.
• Jonathan speculates that Ukraine might have used a Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG cruise missile to attack the bridge.
• He notes that it was recently revealed that Italy has been secretly supplying Ukraine with SCALP-EGs, alongside France, which he welcomes.
• Jonathan believes that a key element of Ukrainian success will be to use long-range weapons such as cruise missiles to attrit Russian forces, as this doesn't cost Ukrainian lives.

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Tatarigami Analysis

🎦 20:44-32:22⏩

• Jonathan moves onto analysis from Tatarigami, who asks why Russian forces have advanced in multiple directions, what the implications are, and what the future prospects are.
• Tatarigami has centred their analysis on Chaziv Yar, Kurokove and Ocheretyne.
• Jonathan reminds viewers where these are.
• He highlights that Kurokove is a key logistical hub, and that he has long believed it would be a Russian objective.
• Tatarigami begins by stating that Ukrainian forces have retreated from Ocheretyne and Soloviove (northwest of Avdiivka).
• Whilst the 115th Brigade has been blamed for this, Tatarigami says that this misses the bigger picture.
• That bigger picture is that many Ukrainian brigades are not in a fit state to hold off a Russian enemy that enjoys "disproportional advantage in personnel, artillery, vehicles and air support".
• Tatarigami argues that whilst it is easy to blame the 115th Brigade for retreating, the reality is that the constant bombardment they have been subjected to, including by Russian glide bombs, would break the morale of even the best troops.
• They go on to say that there are systemic issues in the Ukrainian military, such as "poor communication, coordination and leadership".
• These stem from deeper issues, such as personnel shortages and challenges in training skilled officers for senior roles.
• Jonathan agrees with this assessment, and says that this situation is only made worse by the attrition Ukrainian forces have faced.
• He explains that this leads to them promoting inexperienced soldiers into leadership roles as they've had no-one else. This makes them particularly vulnerable when facing a larger, better-equipped enemy that doesn't care about its own losses.
• Tatarigami believes that the Russians are trying to outflank Chaziv Yar and attack it from the front, using a similar strategy to the one they used against Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• They say that Russian troops are reinforcing the area, and that they are aiming to take both the north and south sectors of Chaziv Yar.
• Jonathan reminds viewers of the three axes of advance on Chaziv Yar he covered earlier.
• Tatarigami believes that if the southern part of Chaziv Yar falls to the Russians, they will then be able to advance on Kostyantynivka, cutting Ukrainian logistics to the south of Bakhmut.
• The situation would worsen, they say, if Russian forces were to push north from Ocheretyne towards the same road, as this would lead to a link up of Russian forces, putting the Ukrainians in a very difficult position.
• Moving down to Volododonetsk (south of Donetsk City), Tatarigami says that the Russians are trying to cut off Kurokove.
• They believe that if they can establish fire control over the road going through the area, then this will sever Kurokove's logistical links.
• Tatarigami goes on to say that if Kurokove falls, this will put the entire Ukrainian grouping in the Vugledar area at risk.
• Jonathan shows the area on the map, and notes that whilst it is not a huge distance from Marinka, where the current front lines are (around 13km), he's not sure that the Russians have the capacity to make such gains.
• He explains that if Kurokove is compromised, it does put the entire area under threat.
• Tatarigami believes that Russia is trying to exploit Ukraine's current weaknesses to make significant gains.
• They identify three main reasons why Ukraine finds itself in this position: delayed mobilisation, delayed Western aid, and inadequate fortifications.
• Jonathan agrees, and notes that these are all things that have been talked about many times on his channel.
• Tatarigami argues that whilst trenches offer good protection, the extensive Russian use of guided bombs and loitering munitions means that Ukrainian troops need better overhead cover in the form of concrete structures, as well as nets to protect against drones. They say that Ukrainian units lack the resources to build these.
• Tatarigami asks whether the Russians can realistically achieve their objectives in 2024.
• They note that, according to military theory, once an enemy's defences have been breached, it opens the door for mobile units to advance through the gap and operate relatively freely.
• However, they also believe that given the losses the Russians have suffered to their vehicles and ongoing issues with logistics, it is unlikely that they will be able to advance deep into Ukrainian territory as they did at the beginning of the war.
• Instead, they think that the Russians will likely focus on smaller encirclements of Ukrainian troops.
• Jonathan largely agrees with this assessment, although he believes that Ukraine's defences are more "brittle" than most realise.
• He explains that this is because they haven't mobilised enough troops, lack sufficient ammunition, and didn't construct proper fortifications in key areas.
• He contrasts this with the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where the Ukrainians have constructed substantial defences in anticipation of a Russian offensive.
• Jonathan notes that the Russians were able to take Avdiivka so quickly because the Ukrainians had hardly any ammunition at the time, their defences hadn't been finished, and the Russians used a large number of glide bombs.
• He believes that whilst the Ukrainians are now constructing defences, it might be too little, too late.
• Jonathan thinks that whilst the Russians have been attrited, they are in a better position than the Ukrainians, who are "on their knees".
• He doubts that the Russians can advance a significant distance, and questions whether they would be able to push all the way to Kurakhove, for example.
• He believes that for this to happen, the established Ukrainian units in the area would have to be completely destroyed and the Russians would need far more equipment and men than they currently have available.
• Jonathan doubts that the Russians have that, and given the rate at which they are being attrited and their problems with recruitment, he doesn't believe that they'll be able to amass a large, effective reserve force.
• However, he admits that he could be wrong about this.
• Tatarigami believes that the situation will stabilise when Ukraine starts receiving more Western military aid, and is able to deploy freshly mobilised and trained troops.
• However, they note that the second of these is unlikely to happen any time soon, as it takes time to mobilise and train soldiers to a sufficient standard.
• Tatarigami warns viewers against complacency, and points out that the Russians still have a large reserve force (the equivalent of at least two corps), which they could deploy at any time, to any part of the front.
• Tatarigami concludes by saying that this is a very advantageous situation for Russia to be in, and that if they fail to capitalise on it, it will call into question their ability to achieve their objective of capturing the entire Donbas region any time soon.
• They say that this might even force them to reassess their goals in Ukraine.
• Jonathan agrees that this is a critical moment for Russia, and that they have to achieve a decisive victory now, rather than waiting six months, as by then Ukraine will have received more Western weapons and will be able to mobilise more troops.
• He believes that Russia is taking advantage of the current situation, where they are only slightly weaker than Ukraine.
• However, he thinks that this will likely change once Ukraine starts receiving even more military aid from the West.

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Wrap Up

🎦 32:22-32:33⏩

• Jonathan asks viewers for their opinions, and to provide evidence to support their arguments.
• He thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.

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"The Russians are only a little bit well I think they're on their knees as well they just got bigger knees than the Ukrainians and uh they are exploiting those weaknesses."