Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Every single one of these pictures of Zelensky doing something is a zero-sum game in a sense. Like, every one of these is not one of Russia doing that."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, noting it is now meteorological summer which should allow the ground to dry up for the Ukrainian counter-offensive. He mentions he is going out to see a 90s British indie band tonight so the timing of tomorrow's videos may be later than usual.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses
The Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day show a significant uptick:
- 540 liquidated personnel (up by around 100)
- 15 tanks (a big number compared to recent days of 0-3 tanks)
- 12 APCs
- 27 artillery pieces (Ukrainians are explicitly targeting these)
- 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems
- 6 drones
- 10 cruise missiles (from the night before last)
- 28 vehicles and fuel tanks (likely due to first-person view drone attacks on logistics lines)
- 7 pieces of special equipment (highest number Jonathan can remember)
Overnight attacks on Kyiv
Kyiv was attacked overnight with 21 Shahid drones and 15 KH-101/KH-555 cruise missiles, all of which were reportedly shot down. Jonathan questions whether this is a wise use of Russia's depleting missile stocks. He speculates Russia may be trying to "smoke out" Ukrainian air defence systems to then target them.
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Estimates of Russia's remaining missile stocks
As of May 31st, Russia is estimated to have the following missiles remaining:
- 96 out of 2,200 Kalibr, KH-101 and KH-555 cruise missiles
- 50 out of 900 Iskander ballistic missiles
- 48 out of 53 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles
Jonathan notes the Kinzhals are very expensive so Russia is unlikely to use them "willy-nilly". He questions if using up their depleted cruise missile stocks ineffectually is a worthwhile strategy.
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Tank losses and current inventories
An infographic shows that due to Russian tank losses, Ukrainian gains through captures, and donations/refurbishments of tanks for Ukraine, the two sides now have near parity in tanks - an incredible situation given Russia started as the "second greatest army in the world". Russia has gone from a 7:1 advantage in armoured vehicles to 2:1, and a 3:1 advantage in artillery to 1.5:1.
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Attacks on Kursk and Smolensk
Kursk was hit with 5-7 drones overnight. Smolensk was hit with loitering munitions - one damaging a fire-extinguishing water container at an oil refinery in Peresna, and another damaging an administrative building at a gas distribution station in Dvazye. While not causing major damage, these attacks communicate to Russia that Ukraine can hit these targets, forcing Russia to potentially redeploy air defence systems to protect them.
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Belgorod incursion by Russian volunteer forces
Russian volunteer forces, backed by Ukraine, made another incursion into the Belgorod region, attacking near the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka. They destroyed some Russian equipment before retreating. While causing localized chaos, Jonathan speculates the primary objective may have been to capture high-value equipment or intelligence, with the visible attacks serving as a decoy. Evacuations of civilians from Shebekino were reported.
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Military aid updates
- Ukraine cannot use Western-donated weapons to attack Russian missile complexes on Russian territory.
- The US Pentagon is buying Starlink satellite communications services from SpaceX for the Ukrainian military.
- Ukraine won't receive Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDBs) from the US until autumn/winter as the production line is still being set up.
- A Swiss company wants to sell 96 Leopard 1 tanks to Germany to be refurbished and sent to Ukraine, but the Swiss government is blocking it on neutrality grounds.
- The Netherlands is leading "coalitions" to supply Ukraine with Gepard anti-aircraft vehicles, Leopard 1 tanks, Patriot air defence systems and F-16 jets. Poland will help train Ukrainian F-16 pilots.
- The EU is working on a 4-year financial support plan for Ukraine worth tens of billions of euros.
Geopolitics
- Zelensky held meetings with the leaders of Romania and Germany to discuss support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration and the proposed Global Peace Summit.
- Hungary's foreign minister said Ukraine's NATO accession should not be discussed at the upcoming Vilnius summit, emphasised avoiding direct NATO confrontation with Russia, and rejected combat training for Ukrainian forces.
- Hungarian PM Viktor Orban said it was necessary to prevent a Ukrainian counter-offensive to avoid loss of life, prompting criticism of hypocrisy given Hungary's lack of opposition to Russia's invasion.
- Public support in Sweden for NATO membership has reached a record high of 65%.
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their comments and support. He notes he is going out tonight so the timing of tomorrow's videos may be later than usual.
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