Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other Christmas News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Why are we talking about peace negotiations when this is what the Russians are openly saying their intentions are."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the first part of his Ukraine War Update for 28th December 2023. It's the holiday period and Jonathan apologises that the video is an hour later than usual.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Daily Losses
🎦 00:09-04:16⏩
Jonathan prefaces this section by warning that the Ukrainian General Staff figures for 27th December 2023 are high and that some may question their accuracy. However, he says that recent footage suggests that they are likely to be accurate.
- Russian losses: Jonathan highlights that Russia has been taking large losses over the past week: "920 personnel losses is another day of huge losses. 27 tanks and 42 armored personnel vehicles is massive... even if you take a third off that they are still losing you know up around about 30 APVs they're still losing 18 tanks you take a third off that this is phenomenal numbers".
- Jonathan notes that 15 artillery systems lost is about average.
- 40 Russian vehicles and fuel tanks were destroyed, which Jonathan says is a "heavy hit on Russian logistics".
- Jonathan observes that Russia has large stockpiles of military equipment, so can sustain these losses, and is prepared to sacrifice equipment and personnel for "incremental territorial advance".
- Jonathan explains that Russia is drawing on military equipment from its reserves across the country, such as along its borders with NATO and China. He notes Jonathan Fink's observation that "Russia was far more cognizant of the threat of China than actually the threat from the West".
- Jonathan concludes this section by saying that although Russia is taking these losses, the key question is how long it can sustain these losses for before reaching a "critical tipping point".
Oryx Daily Losses
🎦 04:16-08:25⏩
Jonathan analyses the losses reported by Oryx, an open-source intelligence website that tracks military equipment losses in the Russia-Ukraine war.
- Jonathan notes that Ukrainian losses have been minimal "The Ukrainians have lost a couple of tanks, a bit of surveillance equipment, a couple of bits of artillery, nothing particularly huge".
- In contrast, Russian losses have been high. Of note is the loss of a significant number of tanks, including two of Russia's most up-to-date T-90Ms. Jonathan comments "just look at the tank so we have a ship here that has been sunk that is the training vessel that's been added to the large landing ship that was indicated yesterday... Then we have tanks. And basically, you've got every type of tank listed here. Certainly, every type of new tank. I mean, actually not many. There are three unknown tanks, four four unknown tanks, but other than that there are no T62's, T55's, none of the older ones, these are T72's, uh, T80's and a couple of T90's thrown in for short measure as well. Uh, one with a mine roller there, so two T90M's the two the latest version, the latest tank that the Russians utilize, that's a massive loss of tanks. I mean, goodness me, count that up, that's 5, 10. That's 20 tanks. But, looks of it there. Incredible numbers".
- Jonathan also notes the loss of a number of BMP infantry fighting vehicles (mainly BMP-2s, BMP-3s and some BMDs) and a number of civilian and unknown trucks.
- Jonathan explains that the poor quality of much of the footage from drones, which has often been screen-recorded, makes it difficult to identify some of the destroyed vehicles, which is why some are listed as "unknown".
- Jonathan shows footage of the aftermath of Russian attacks, in particular in the vicinity of Krinkivka, where he says "there is no mechanized equipment they can get across the river so it's just like 200 troops against all all of these Russians attacking them and the damage being done isn't necessarily from those 200 troops. That's almost like, uh, and I hate to say this, but it's almost like baiting the Russians in. So you bait them with the 200 troops and then you hit the Russians with your drones".
Russian Landing Ship Destroyed
🎦 08:25-14:17⏩
Jonathan discusses the destruction of a Russian Ropucha-class landing ship in the port of Berdyansk, which he believes was carrying Iranian-made Shahed-136 suicide drones.
- Jonathan shows Maxar satellite images of the ship before and after it was destroyed: "check out the Maxar imagery that's now coming out of the Ropucha-class landing ship that was taking out [in Berdyansk]. So we know definitely now that that ship is the one that was hit and that ship is no longer a ship. There it was before. There it is now. Yeah, it really did blow up."
- He then discusses an 11-tweet thread by open-source military analyst Trent Telenko, who analysed footage of the explosion: "And actually, Trent Telenko's done an explosion analysis of that. I mean, there is 11 tweets of him doing that analysis".
- Telenko concluded that there were not enough conventional munitions on board to have caused such a large explosion: "there weren't enough shell or rocket munitions to account for blast damage seen in [Berdyansk]".
- Given the size of the explosion, Telenko believes that hundreds of Shahed-136 drones must have been on board the ship.
- Telenko also believes that these Shahed drones had recently been upgraded with thermobaric warheads: "the Russians recently upgraded their Shaheeds with 40 kilograms of thermobaric warheads".
- Jonathan notes that Russia may now be using its warships to transport munitions for security reasons: "he says there must have been many hundreds of Shaheed 136 drones in the [Berdyansk] when she was Storm Shadowed. She was used to move Shaheeds in the same way the USS Indianapolis was used, um, to move the A-bomb in World War II for security reasons".
- Telenko argues that the destruction of this ship, and the Shahed drones on board, will affect Russia's ability to attack targets in Odesa and attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Melitopol - Railway Bridge Destroyed
🎦 14:17-15:22⏩
Jonathan reports that the mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, has said that Ukrainian partisans have destroyed a railway bridge near Svitlodolynske for a second time. He notes that "partisans are active around Melitopol doing the things they're active in Mariupol as well. Those are two of the hot spots for partisan activity".
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
🎦 15:22-18:52⏩
Jonathan provides an update on overnight Russian drone and missile attacks.
- He notes that it has been a relatively quiet night for Shahed drone attacks, with only eight launched (of which seven were shot down): "seven out of the eight Shahids shot shot down last night. So, relatively quiet night. That's the smallest Shahid wave attack that we've seen for some time. There's been at least sort of 20 shot on most nights, maybe the teens, 20s, 30s, and 40s. Well actually, you know, eight Shahids sent is not that much and seven of those were taken out".
- Jonathan speculates that the low number of Shahed drones launched could be linked to the destruction of the landing ship at Berdyansk, if indeed it was carrying a significant number of drones.
- Jonathan reports on Russian attacks documented by military blogger Tim White, in particular in the Kharkiv, Odesa and Kherson regions.
- In Vovchansk (Kharkiv region), one woman was killed and another seriously wounded when their car was hit by what is believed to be an S-300 anti-aircraft missile.
- In Odesa, 12 Shahed-136 drones were intercepted, although debris from one of the drones hit a residential building, killing one person and injuring four others (including a four-year-old child).
- In Kherson, 400 shells were fired over a 24-hour period, killing one person and wounding seven.
Ukrainian Strikes on Crimea
🎦 18:52-20:13⏩
Jonathan discusses recent Ukrainian strikes on Crimea.
- He highlights the importance of the Perekop Isthmus in northern Crimea, which is the only land route into and out of Crimea. He notes that "all those routes into Crimea is relatively easy to cut Crimea off because once you've taken out bridges, there is only that one area where you can get into and off Crimea".
- He believes that Ukraine is focusing its efforts on this area and reports that there have been a series of explosions near Armyansk and Sevastopol.
- Jonathan also notes that the Kerch Strait Bridge was closed again last night.
- Jonathan reiterates that Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets in Crimea are increasing, suggesting that Ukraine could be preparing for a major offensive against Crimea.
Cyber Attacks
🎦 20:13-21:28⏩
Jonathan discusses a number of recent cyber attacks by both Russia and Ukraine.
- Jonathan reports that Ukrainian hackers have successfully attacked 1C, a major Russian accounting and payments network, disrupting services for a number of clients, including gas stations, shops and technology companies. He describes this as "some really effective hacking".
- Jonathan contrasts this with recent Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine's infrastructure, including attacks on Kyivstar, the country's main mobile phone operator, that have affected mobile phone and internet services across the country, disrupting online payments in the process.
- Jonathan also mentions that Ukrainian hackers had previously targeted the Russian pension services and an unnamed network.
German Investigation into Russian War Crimes
🎦 21:28-22:05⏩
Jonathan reports that German investigators have identified a number of Russian soldiers believed to be responsible for killing civilians in Hostomel, near Kyiv, in the early days of the invasion. He notes that this was "right at the beginning of the war when the Russians just were committing war crimes from the get-go" and that the evidence will be sent to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
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Scott Ritter's Predictions
🎦 22:05-23:43⏩
Jonathan pours scorn on former US Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter's predictions that Russia is on the cusp of victory in Ukraine, describing him as a "Russian shill".
- Jonathan highlights that Ritter, who is married to a pro-Russian Georgian woman, has made several incorrect predictions about when the war will end in Russia's favour and believes that he is "entirely compromised" and "in the pocket of the Kremlin".
- Jonathan advises his viewers to ignore Ritter's pronouncements, comparing him to American Christian radio broadcaster Harold Camping, who made a number of false predictions about when the world would end.
Dmitry Medvedev on Peace Talks
🎦 23:43-27:27⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent statement by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, in which he outlines Russia's position on peace talks.
- Jonathan reads out a translation of a Telegram post by Medvedev in which he states that Russia is prepared to enter into peace talks with Ukraine but only on its own terms.
- Medvedev states that "one, [the] special operation will continue its goal will remain the disarmament of Ukrainian troops and the rejection of the current Ukrainian state from the ideology of neo-Nazism... two, the removal of the ruling Bandera regime is clearly not declared, but the most important and inevitable goal that must and will be achieved". Jonathan emphasises that Russia wants "regime change" in Ukraine and to remove the Zelensky government.
- Medvedev also reiterates that Russia intends to capture a number of Ukrainian cities, stating that "Odessa, the Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Mikhelev, Kiev, and our Russian cities ... are still marked in yellow blue on paper maps and on electronic tablets", making it very clear that Russia's goal is to capture Kyiv and depose the Ukrainian government.
- Medvedev concludes by saying that "negotiations are of course possible. Russia has never rejected them unlike the crazy Ukrainian authorities. Such negotiations are not limited by time. They can continue until the complete defeat and capitulation of the Bandera troops of the North Atlantic Alliance".
- Jonathan points out that half a million men have been conscripted into the Russian armed forces since January 2023, demonstrating that Russia has no intention of giving up on its war aims.
- Jonathan concludes this section by saying "Why are we talking about peace negotiations when this is what the Russians are openly saying their intentions are."
Russian Councillor 'Falls' Out of Window
🎦 27:27-28:04⏩
In a brief aside, Jonathan reports that a Russian councillor from the ruling United Russia Party appears to have "fallen" out of a window in Tobolsk. This is a veiled reference to suspicious deaths of Russian officials and oligarchs since the invasion of Ukraine, some of whom are believed to have been murdered after criticising Putin.
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Valery Zaluzhny Awarded PhD
🎦 28:04-29:13⏩
Jonathan light-heartedly reports that Valery Zaluzhny, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has managed to find time to complete his PhD in Law, even though Ukraine is fighting for its survival.
- Jonathan quotes The Economist's defence editor Shashank Joshi who tweeted: "I couldn't finish my PhD thesis because I was far too busy. Valery Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of Ukraine during an existential war, defends his law PhD thesis on a secret topic."
- Jonathan jokes that "every PhD student has long fantasized about the ability to forcibly draft their committee and send them to the other side of the Nipro", referring to the panel of academics that judges PhD dissertations.
Ben Hodges on Degrading Russia's Military Capabilities
🎦 29:13-31:25⏩
Jonathan agrees with former US Army Europe commanding general Ben Hodges' view that Ukraine needs to focus on degrading Russia's ability to wage war by targeting its command and control centres, logistics and artillery.
- Jonathan describes Russia's large pool of manpower as its only advantage over Ukraine.
- He argues that Ukraine needs to increase the frequency of its attacks on Russian military targets in occupied Ukraine: "And what Ukraine have done, that needs to be multiplied by 30, really. And it can't be once a month that these big, huge places are hit. That needs to be every night. They need to be sending waves and waves of missiles, obliterating the Russian ability to prosecute this war."
- He states that Ukraine needs long-range precision weapons to do this: "Long-range precision strike capability that can reach every corner of Russian-occupied Ukraine will make that possible."
- Jonathan believes that the US (which holds the largest stockpiles of such weapons) and Europe need to do more to support Ukraine by providing it with these weapons.
- He notes that although Europe cannot compete with the US in terms of its stockpiles of weapons "they can by ramping up production".
Wrap Up
🎦 31:25-31:32⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share his videos.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I am unsure about the following points in the transcript and would be grateful if you could clarify them:
What does Jonathan Fink mean when he says that Russia was more concerned about the threat from China than the West?
Jonathan mentioned that Ukrainian forces had also targeted the Russian pension service in cyber attacks - do you have any further information on this?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is the first transcript I will be summarising for "ATP Distilled". Jonathan discusses a lot in his videos so it's important that I capture the key points, his insights/analysis and present them in a structured way for viewers short of time.
The first thing I will do is create the title, date and part tags. I will then listen to the video and make a note of the different topics and their corresponding timestamps in the transcript. Once I have listened to the whole video and am happy with the topic titles, I will start summarising each topic. I imagine there will be a lot to cover in this video.
Jonathan's personality is a key part of his videos - his passion, morality, humour and turn of phrase all come across in his videos. It's important that this is conveyed in the summaries. He also has a very close relationship with his viewers, who he refers to as "Team". I will use this in the summaries.
Finally, I need to ensure that all spellings, in particular of Ukrainian places, are correct. I will pay close attention to this, as it is very important.