Ukr War BUMPER NEWS Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Record Drone Strike Repelled
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:30⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War News Update for 9th June 2025, Part 1. He begins by mentioning his recent live stream for the ‘Hits and Losses’ video, which extended due to an unexpected appearance from Andrew Perpetua. The live stream turned into a fascinating discussion on war developments, Ukrainian drones, and frontline activity. Jonathan highly recommends watching it for its valuable information, despite covering yesterday's figures.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Personnel and Equipment Losses & Andrew Perpetua's Analysis
🎦 01:30-10:12⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses, noting a rare drop in personnel losses to 970, which is still a massive number but lower than recent months. He speculates on the reasons for this downtick, suggesting Russia might be preparing for a major push, struggling with manpower, or conducting smaller, more frequent attacks (e.g., with motorcycles or small infantry groups) rather than large columns. Andrew Perpetua’s data, though backlogged, correlates with the General Staff figures, showing spikes and troughs in Russian personnel losses but an overall trend:
- Losses surged significantly over winter as Russia pushed in many areas, sustaining immense attrition for minimal territorial gains.
- Current losses, while down from winter peaks, remain double what they were previously, partly due to Ukraine's reliance on drone lines rather than heavily manned trenches, allowing Russia to make gains with fewer troops.
- Andrew Perpetua has confirmed 552 Russian killed in action on April 12th from video evidence alone, highlighting the conservative nature of official figures. He also noted 275 vehicle losses on the same day, confirming the immense scale of work involved in compiling his lists.
Russia's Manipulation of Deceased Ukrainian Soldier Exchange
🎦 10:13-11:39⏩
Jonathan reports on Russia's attempt to use an exchange of deceased Ukrainian soldiers for a PR win. Russia released footage of refrigerated trucks with Ukrainian bodies at the border, claiming Ukraine failed to show up for the handover. However, Ukraine's Coordination Centre and intelligence chief Budanov condemned this as a "sick PR stunt" and a violation of agreed protocols. Russia had reportedly claimed it would hand over 6,000 bodies in total, a "massive, massive number."
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Russian Improvised Military Equipment: The Bathtub Sidecar
🎦 11:40-13:20⏩
Jonathan discusses a seemingly ridiculous piece of Russian equipment: a motorcycle with a bathtub attached as a sidecar. While it appears absurd and indicates a lack of proper equipment, Jonathan cautions against underestimating its utility. He likens it to the use of motorcycles or quads by Russian forces out of necessity, which sometimes convey an advantage. His philosophical point is that if the improvised vehicle functions to transport supplies quickly to the contact line, then it serves its purpose, regardless of how "ugly" or unconventional it may be.
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Ukrainian HIMARS Strike on Rilsk, Kursk Region
🎦 13:21-14:52⏩
Four HIMARS missiles struck Rilsk in Russia's Kursk region, a key staging area for Russian forces attacking Sumy. Russian sources claimed the strike hit a "cultural and recreation centre," but Jonathan dismisses this, stating Ukraine would not waste valuable HIMARS missiles on such a target. Imagery confirmed a significant hit. Tim White and Z Channel reported that the target was likely a "nice summer camp populated by military types," suggesting it was a high-value military target, evidenced by the use of four HIMARS and Russia's lack of official word.
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Ukrainian Artillery Strikes near Tetkino, Kursk Region
🎦 14:53-15:49⏩
The town of Tetkino in the Kursk region is under heavy Ukrainian pressure. Andrew Perpetua had previously suggested that Ukrainian forces might have taken Tetkino, though this remains unconfirmed. Imagery from FIRMS data indicates intense artillery activity, with some sources claiming Ukrainian units are "levelling Tetkino on the ground." Jonathan cautions that while there's significant activity, such images can sometimes misrepresent who is hitting whom. Tetkino's importance was discussed in Jonathan's previous live stream.
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Russia Amassing Forces for Sumy Offensive & 'Blanket' Analogy
🎦 15:49-17:46⏩
Petro Andriushchenko, head of the Centre for Occupation Studies, reports that Russia is amassing forces for a renewed offensive on Sumy, transferring artillery units, air defence systems, and trucks with troops and ammo from occupied Crimea to Kherson. Jonathan clarifies that while this isn't a "huge" amount of equipment, it's significant given Russia's resource constraints. He uses his "blanket not big enough for the bed" analogy: Russia pulls resources (the blanket) from one area (Crimea) to cover another (Sumy), inevitably leaving the first area weaker. This constant movement of assets underscores Russia's challenge in adequately covering all its operational needs, a problem also faced by Ukraine, albeit for different reasons.
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Russian Guided Glide Bomb Strikes in Zaporizhzhia
🎦 17:47-18:24⏩
Jonathan shows footage from the Zaporizhzhia Regional Administration of the aftermath of a Russian guided aerial bomb hit on a residential area in Zaporizhzhia. He notes that Russia's guided glide bombs (CARBs and FABs) are still very active and frequently hit civilian infrastructure rather than military targets, despite not always being the most precise munitions.
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Ukraine Repels Record Russian Drone & Missile Attack
🎦 18:24-28:24⏩
Ukraine successfully repelled a record-breaking Russian air attack overnight, which included 479 Shahed drones and decoy drones, of which 460 (a phenomenal 96% interception rate) were shot down. Crucially, Ukraine also intercepted an impressive array of Russian missiles:
- 4 out of 4 KH-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles (hypersonic)
- 10 out of 10 KH-101 cruise missiles
- 2 out of 3 KH-22 cruise missiles
- 2 out of 2 KH-31P anti-radar missiles
- 1 out of 1 KH-35 cruise missile
This equates to 19 out of 20 missiles shot down. Jonathan speculates this incredible success might indicate Ukraine has received new air defence systems, including potentially more German IRIS-T systems, or that the Russians focused attacks on larger cities like Kyiv where Ukraine has well-established air defences, allowing for longer interception times. Rivne was a primary target for the Kinzhal missiles, likely aiming for a developing airbase near Dubno. Jonathan notes that even if hypersonic missiles are shot down, their steep trajectory means debris can still fall on the intended target.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Airfields and Defence Plants
🎦 28:25-37:20⏩
Ukraine launched a significant number of drones into Russia and Crimea, targeting multiple regions including Orel, Kursk, Lipetsk, Tambov, Saratov, and Voronezh. Key reported hits include:
- Savaslake Airfield (Nizhny Novgorod region): Locals reported 20 explosions. Ukraine claims two units of enemy aircraft (likely MiG-31s, Su-30s, or Su-34s) were hit. This airfield is used by MiG-31K jets to launch Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, suggesting a strategic effort to prevent missile launches.
- VNIIR Progress Plant (Cheboksary, Chuvash Republic): Approximately 1,000 kilometres from the front line, this plant produces critical components for S-300, 400, 500 air defence systems, T-90M and Armata tanks, BMPs, Terminators, Orion drones, and Su-34 aircraft. It also supplies guidance, stabilisation, and flight control systems for Iskander-M and Kalibr missiles, as well as glide bombs and Lancet drones. Video evidence shows multiple drones (including a Lutie drone) hitting the facility, causing large fires. Jonathan highlights the contrast with Russian claims of an "attempted" attack, when clear video shows direct hits, demonstrating Russian disinformation.
Ukrainian Strike on Kazan Gunpowder Factory
🎦 37:20-37:40⏩
Local media in Kazan initially reported a fire at a paint and varnish workshop. Jonathan notes that such facilities are often targeted and may be involved in military composites. Later reports suggested the fire was actually at a gunpowder factory, which if verified, would be a highly significant hit for Ukraine.
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Targeting Russian Railway Logistics in Saratov
🎦 37:40-37:58⏩
A freight locomotive in the Saratov region was reported to be on fire, appearing to have been struck. This indicates a potential Ukrainian targeting of Russian railway logistics, a vital part of Russia's war economy.
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Tochka U Analysis: Operation Spiderweb and Russian Aircraft Losses
🎦 37:58-39:35⏩
Jonathan shares insights from a Tochka U article on "Operation Spiderweb," a Ukrainian drone operation. The analysis revealed that drones were piloted remotely via radio-based stations near Russian airfields, utilising Russia's own 4G LTE network for communication with operators safely located in Ukraine. Tochka U confirmed catastrophic losses for Russian strategic aviation, including:
- Seven TU-95 bombers
- Four TU-22M3 strike aircraft
- One AN-12 transport aircraft
- Two A-50 AWACS aircraft
In total, 25 aircraft were attacked across four airfields (Olenya, Belyae, Vyagilevo, and Ivanovo). The drones used linear-shaped charge warheads designed for high-value precision targeting, cleanly severing aircraft fuselage, superstructure, or fuel tanks, rendering them inoperable without using conventional long-range munitions.
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Corruption and Aid Appeals in the Russian Military vs. Ukraine
🎦 39:35-46:46⏩
Jonathan discusses the stark contrast in how volunteer aid appeals are handled by the Russian and Ukrainian militaries. In Ukraine, units openly appeal for aid, supported by the armed forces, leveraging charities and networks like Dzyga's Paw, Caritas Ukraine, or NAFO to rapidly acquire needed equipment. This system is seen as a reactive and effective way to supplement central government supplies. In Russia, the situation is the exact opposite. Russian soldiers face punishment, including being sent on "one-way assaults," if they publicly appeal for aid. Commanders view such appeals as reflecting badly on the army, forcing aid requests to be made anonymously. Furthermore, much of the aid sent to Russian units is stolen by corrupt officers or unappreciated by recipients. Russian war bloggers lament that officers are "jealous" of direct aid to units because it cannot be resold, with some even registering vehicles in their own names to prevent theft. Jonathan links this fundamental difference to the motivations for fighting: Ukrainians are fighting for the existential survival of their country, identity, and families, fostering unity and discouraging corruption. Russians, in contrast, lack this existential threat, leading to a greater inclination for individual profiteering and a breakdown of military integrity.
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Mutilation of Ukrainian POW and Russian War Propaganda
🎦 46:47-48:51⏩
Jonathan expresses outrage over a horrific case where a Ukrainian prisoner of war, after being exchanged, showed his body covered in multiple mutilations and a "Glory to Russia" inscription scarred into his abdomen. He contrasts this barbarity with a forum in Moscow, organised by Alexander Dugin (the ultra-nationalist philosopher whose ideology underpins Putin's thinking) and the Sagarad Institute. Speakers at this forum included Sergey Lavrov, Elon Musk's father Errol Musk, UK politician George Galloway, political realist Jeffrey Sachs (who Jonathan dismisses as a "Russian simp"), and Alex Jones. Jonathan highlights the disturbing lineup of figures involved in Russian propaganda, urging viewers to dismiss their views given their association.
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Russian Railway Loading Decline and Economic Impact
🎦 48:52-50:12⏩
Jonathan reviews data from Prudence60 on Russian railway loading, which shows a significant decline in 2025 compared to previous years. As Russia's economy heavily relies on its railway network for transport, this downturn in loading figures suggests a struggling economy and reduced economic activity. Prudence60 predicts a further drop in loading, indicating continued economic challenges for Russia.
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Wrap up
🎦 50:12-50:19⏩
Jonathan thanks his audience for listening to what has been another long video due to the sheer volume of ongoing events in the war. He signs off, promising to speak to them soon. Toodlepips!
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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