Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"Ukraine deserves an invitation to NATO."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:19⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG Politics video, a Ukraine War news update, part two, for July 13, 2024. Today's focus is on restrictions placed on Ukraine regarding the use of Western-supplied weapons within Russia.

Return to top⤴️

Zelensky's statement at the NATO-Ukraine council

🎦 00:19-03:16⏩

Jonathan reads and analyses a recent thread by Zelensky where he addressed the NATO-Ukraine Council. Zelensky emphasizes that Ukraine's fight against Russia's full-scale aggression is not just about Ukraine's own defence but about safeguarding the global rules-based order. Ukraine prevents aggressors from benefiting from their wars of aggression, which is fundamental to the alliance's purpose—ensuring that those who initiate criminal wars against other nations face defeat. Zelensky expresses gratitude for the air defence systems provided, but stresses the urgency of their delivery to protect Ukrainian cities. He highlights delays in the delivery of certain military aid packages, which he believes only serve Putin's interests, and emphasizes the importance of swift delivery to ensure Putin's failure. Zelensky reiterates his request for permission to strike Russian territory along the border, arguing that this permission, along with the bravery of Ukrainian soldiers, was crucial in thwarting the Russian offensive on Kharkiv. He cites the effectiveness of HIMARS strikes on Russian military targets near the border and advocates for the provision of ATACMS, Scalp, and Storm Shadow missiles, suggesting their potential to cripple Russian military airfields launching glide bombs. Zelensky justifies the request to target these airfields by highlighting Russia's monthly deployment of approximately 3,500 glide bombs against Ukrainian cities, emphasizing that destroying these bases is a matter of self-defence. He stresses the need for at least 150 F-16s (half of Russia's estimated 300 combat aircraft) to effectively counter the Russian air threat and calls for an expansion of pilot training missions. Zelensky expresses gratitude for the establishment of the NATO-Ukraine Council, viewing it as a step towards Ukraine's eventual NATO membership, which he considers crucial for lasting peace in Europe. He believes that Ukraine's victory against Russia is essential to prevent further Russian aggression in the region and calls for a formal invitation to join NATO, emphasizing that Ukraine's inclusion would significantly strengthen the alliance's security framework.

Return to top⤴️

Jonathan's analysis of Zelensky's statement and the importance of EU and US support for Ukraine

🎦 03:16-04:13⏩

Jonathan analyses Zelensky's statement, underscoring the need for a strong European response to the conflict, as a Russian victory would severely weaken the EU project. He argues that the EU's strength hinges on its reaction to the Russian aggression and its support for Ukraine's success. He believes that the US holds the key to Ukraine's success, particularly in enabling strikes on Russian airbases using weapons like ATACMS, Scalp, and Storm Shadow missiles. Jonathan underscores the significance of US support, highlighting Zelensky's statement: "We need this permission from our partners and most importantly from the US." He then delves into the confusion surrounding potential restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow missiles against targets within Russia.

Return to top⤴️

Confusion and speculation about restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow missiles in Ukraine

🎦 04:13-08:15⏩

Jonathan discusses the contradictory information surrounding restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow missiles provided to Ukraine. Initial reports suggested that the UK had given permission for strikes inside Russia, but later statements indicated potential pushback from the US or Italy. The Times reported that the UK requires approval from two allies before authorizing such strikes, one being France (co-manufacturer of Storm Shadows) and the other an undisclosed NATO ally (speculated to be either the US or Italy). Jonathan cites conflicting opinions on the matter, including insights from defence analyst John Ridge, who believes the restrictions are political, not legal. Ridge argues that no legal framework exists for the UK or France to restrict Ukraine's use of the missiles unless explicitly stated in the end-user agreement. Shashank Joshi suggests that Italy's past stance against using its weapons inside Russia might be a factor, despite the current Italian government's strong support for Ukraine. Jonathan expresses frustration with the lack of clarity, questioning the authority that seemingly restricts the UK Prime Minister's ability to make decisions, especially if the restrictions are indeed political and not legally binding. He concludes that while the UK might be willing to allow such strikes, their hands seem tied.

Return to top⤴️

Polish Foreign Minister considers downing Russian missiles over Ukraine

🎦 08:15-11:52⏩

Jonathan highlights the strong stance of several European leaders, particularly those from Eastern European countries, regarding Russia's aggression. He lauds individuals like Radosław Sikorski (Polish Foreign Minister), Gabrielius Landsbergis (Lithuanian Foreign Minister), Kaja Kallas (Estonian Prime Minister), Mette Frederiksen (Danish Prime Minister), and Emmanuel Macron (French President) for their robust and consistent responses to the conflict. He specifically applauds Sikorski's suggestion to consider downing Russian missiles over Ukraine as a legitimate act of self-defence, especially following Russia's targeting of a children's hostel. However, Jonathan acknowledges that Poland is seeking a NATO-wide decision on this matter to avoid potential escalation and ensure collective security backing. He expresses doubt that NATO would grant permission for such action, leaving Poland to consider a bilateral approach with inherent risks.

Return to top⤴️

Czech Republic to supply 100,000 artillery shells to Ukraine per month

🎦 11:52-14:39⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to military aid, reporting that Ukraine will receive up to 100,000 artillery shells per month from the Czech Republic. This initiative will supplement existing supplies from the US, UK, Germany, France, and other countries, significantly boosting Ukraine's artillery capabilities. Jonathan believes this will enable Ukraine to increase its rate of fire and potentially outmatch Russian artillery, especially given the superior precision and targeting abilities of Ukrainian forces. He acknowledges potential logistical challenges for both sides, including barrel wear, maintenance requirements, and the constant threat of drone attacks and counter-battery fire, but remains optimistic about the positive impact of increased ammunition supplies for Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

US develops new low-cost, precision-guided munition for Ukraine with a range of 250 miles

🎦 14:39-16:07⏩

Jonathan reports that the US is developing a new, relatively inexpensive precision-guided air-launched standoff munition for Ukraine, boasting a range of up to 250 miles (400 kilometres). He believes this development could be "really good news" for Ukraine, potentially enabling strikes on Russian airbases and other strategic targets within Russian territory, particularly those currently outside the range of existing weapons. He questions the purpose of a 250-mile range if restrictions prevent strikes on Russian territory and suggests that lifting these restrictions would make the weapon far more effective in targeting Russian military infrastructure.

Return to top⤴️

Northrop Grumman to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine

🎦 16:07-16:33⏩

Jonathan announces that Northrop Grumman, a major US defence contractor, has become the first US company to sign an agreement to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine. This move, confirmed by Stephen O'Brien, signifies a deepening involvement of US companies in supporting Ukraine's defence industry. Jonathan speculates on the timeframes and types of weapons to be produced, promising further updates as details emerge.

Return to top⤴️

Zelensky and Macron discuss next defence package, security cooperation and military training

🎦 16:33-17:08⏩

Jonathan mentions Zelensky's meeting with French President Macron, during which they discussed the next defence package for Ukraine, security cooperation, and military training initiatives, including the potential training of Ukrainian pilots on Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets. Jonathan expresses keen interest in the specifics of the upcoming French military aid package, urging viewers to "keep their eyes peeled."

Return to top⤴️

UK to receive limited number of F-16s

🎦 17:08-18:03⏩

Jonathan discusses the UK's expected delivery of six F-16 fighter jets by summer 2024 and up to 20 by the end of the year. While acknowledging the relatively small number, he stresses the complexities of integrating such advanced aircraft into Ukraine's existing military infrastructure. He emphasizes the need for a carefully planned and executed strategy, suggesting a rotational system where a significant portion of the F-16 fleet undergoes maintenance in neighbouring countries to minimize their vulnerability to Russian attacks.

Return to top⤴️

Jonathan jokes about the complexities of aircraft maintenance

🎦 18:03-18:33⏩

Jonathan takes a humorous detour, joking about the intricacies of aircraft maintenance using technical jargon. He lightens the mood with his characteristic wit, acknowledging the grim reality of the war and Russia's targeting of civilian infrastructure like children's hospitals.

Return to top⤴️

Belgium to deliver 30 F-16s to Ukraine by 2028

🎦 18:33-19:30⏩

Jonathan returns to the topic of F-16 deliveries, mentioning unconfirmed reports of Romanian F-16s potentially operating over the Odessa region. He then discloses Belgium's pledge to supply 30 F-16s to Ukraine by 2028, a timeframe deemed "unacceptable" by Ukrainian officials. Jonathan speculates on the reasons behind the delay, suggesting possibilities such as the aircraft still being in active service with the Belgian Air Force, extensive refurbishment requirements, or other unspecified factors.

Return to top⤴️

French A2SM HAMMER bombs to be integrated with Ukrainian F-16s

🎦 19:30-20:31⏩

Jonathan highlights the French-made A2SM HAMMER guided glide bombs, which have proven highly effective in Ukrainian service. He reveals that efforts are underway to integrate these bombs onto the F-16s destined for Ukraine. However, this adaptation process, initiated in May 2023, might cause delays in the deployment of the F-16s.

Return to top⤴️

Argentina offers military aid to Ukraine

🎦 20:31-22:04⏩

Jonathan reports on Argentina's Defence Minister, Luis Petri's, announcement of their readiness to provide military aid to Ukraine. He makes a lighthearted comment about the minister's appearance. He notes initial plans to transfer two Mi-171E transport helicopters to Ukraine were hindered by maintenance issues rendering the aircraft inoperable. Despite their economic challenges, Argentina has taken a strong stance in support of Ukraine, joining a growing list of nations providing military assistance. Jonathan emphasizes Argentina's official designation of Hamas as a terrorist organization, a first for a South American nation. He then outlines Argentina's potential supply of light weapons, ammunition, mortar shells, and 155mm artillery shells, all critically needed by Ukrainian forces.

Return to top⤴️

Estonia delivers network equipment to enhance Ukraine's cybersecurity

🎦 22:04-22:27⏩

Jonathan highlights Estonia's delivery of network equipment to bolster Ukraine's cyber defence capabilities. This shipment, part of the IT Coalition's ongoing support, will enhance the capacity of Ukrainian data centres and strengthen the cybersecurity infrastructure of the Ministry of Defence and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

Germany and Latvia launch joint drone initiative for Ukraine

🎦 22:27-27:29⏩

Jonathan discusses a new drone initiative announced by German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius at the NATO summit in Washington. Under this initiative, Germany and Latvia will collaborate to produce drones for Ukraine, utilizing both German and Latvian manufacturing capabilities. He observes that this arrangement benefits the German and Latvian defence industries and could be seen as a way to address potential taxpayer concerns about the cost of supporting Ukraine by framing it as a mutually beneficial economic stimulus package. Jonathan expresses surprise over the exclusion of British manufacturers from this initiative, despite the UK's leading role in drone technology. He speculates that this exclusion might stem from post-Brexit political realities, suggesting that EU members like Germany and Latvia might prioritize intra-EU trade and collaboration. Jonathan highlights potential advantages for EU members participating in such initiatives, such as simplified logistics, tariff-free trade, and the recirculation of funds within the EU economy. He contrasts this with the UK's position outside the EU, where participating in such collaborations might involve tariffs, bureaucratic hurdles, and ultimately disadvantage British companies. He criticizes the economic rationale behind Brexit, arguing that the UK will need to make significant concessions, like tax breaks or compromising workers' rights and environmental regulations, to offset the disadvantages of being outside the EU's single market. He concludes by suggesting that the German-Latvian drone initiative, while positive for Ukraine, exemplifies the potential economic challenges Brexit might pose for the UK in the long term. He encourages viewers to seek more information on the initiative from the German Aid to Ukraine website (DEAIDUA.org).

Return to top⤴️

Wrap up

🎦 27:29-27:40⏩

Jonathan thanks his audience for watching and bids them farewell.

Return to top⤴️