Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new Ukraine War news update for the 6th of December 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:08-03:03⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, using Del's open-source statistics as a reference. He highlights the significance of the reported 1,660 personnel lost and notes that eight tank losses align with the daily average. He observes that while the average daily tank loss has been consistent, it has been steadily increasing. Jonathan analyses the tactical use of tanks, noting their deployment as glorified APCs and the conversion of some into tracked guard and shed vehicles. He suggests that this might indicate the decreasing utility of tanks in comparison to APCs in the current phase of the war. Jonathan further emphasizes the substantial loss of 46 troop-carrying AFVs, significantly exceeding the average. He scrutinizes the detailed losses presented by Andrew Perpetua's list, which includes 138 visually confirmed Russian KIA, and points out a one-to-one equipment loss ratio, deeming it unfavourable for Ukraine. He attributes this to Ukrainian losses of trucks and civilian vehicles, exceeding their usual numbers.
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Ukrainian Losses
🎦 03:03-07:26⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Ukrainian losses, emphasizing that a majority of the combat asset losses are damaged rather than destroyed. He notes a damaged Bohdana 2S22, expressing surprise at the infrequent appearance of this artillery system given its increased production rate. He lists additional Ukrainian losses, including a Leopard 1A5 tank, various IFVs and APCs, a captured Land Rover, a Cougar MRAP, a captured Senator MRAP, and several infantry mobility vehicles. He highlights the vulnerability of Humvees and the significant number of trucks and civilian vehicles lost. Jonathan then analyses Russian equipment losses, emphasizing the presence of air defence systems, including a captured and repurposed Ukrainian S-6 Tunguska, which was subsequently destroyed by a Ukrainian FPV drone, and a damaged TOR-M2 hit by a Nemesis drone. He points out the significance of air defence system losses due to their high value. Jonathan provides a detailed list of Russian losses across various categories, concluding that both sides are experiencing comparable equipment losses, although Russia's losses are aggravated by the inclusion of high-value air defence systems.
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Russian Enlistment Rates
🎦 07:26-09:32⏩
Jonathan discusses an article from the Kyiv Independent suggesting that Russian losses might be outpacing their enlistment rates, corroborating his previous observations based on recruitment data and sign-on bonus expenditures. He cites Medusa's estimate of 500-600 new Russian recruits per day in the third quarter of 2024, highlighting the significance of this figure and contrasting it with the Ukrainian General Staff's reported average daily loss of 1,590 Russian personnel over the past 30 days. He acknowledges the potential for exaggeration in the General Staff's figures but emphasizes that even with a conservative estimate of 500 new recruits per day, Russia could be facing a net loss of 1,000 personnel daily. Jonathan extrapolates this to a potential monthly net loss of 30,000 for Russia and acknowledges the possibility of some injured personnel returning to combat within a month. Despite this, he underscores the negative implications of these figures for Russia, suggesting that it explains the presence of poorly trained and ill-equipped soldiers on the front lines.
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Ukrainian Special Forces Operation in Kursk
🎦 09:32-11:10⏩
Jonathan transitions to discussing a Ukrainian special forces operation in the Kursk region, utilizing information from Max 24. He reports that Ukrainian forces, potentially aided by Russian POWs, ambushed Russian reinforcements, destroying two BTR-82As and damaging another. The attack involved the use of an 84mm Carl Gustaf recoilless rifle and sniper fire to eliminate surviving Russian troops. The success of the ambush was attributed to the element of surprise, as Russian forces were lured into a trap under the belief that the position was still under their control.
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Cost of Russian Military Losses
🎦 11:10-12:19⏩
Jonathan presents an infographic from United24 illustrating the financial implications of Russia's battlefield losses and declining international arms deals. The infographic highlights the substantial cost of specific Russian military systems, including the S-400 air missile system, NEBO-M long range radar, ZOOPARK radar, Podlet counter-battery radar system. Jonathan emphasizes the recurring losses of these systems throughout the war and notes discrepancies in estimated costs based on various sources. He digresses briefly to mention the significant losses incurred by the Assad regime and Russian forces in Syria, highlighting the impact of the Syrian conflict on the war in Ukraine.
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Drone Attacks & The Crimean Bridge
🎦 12:19-15:06⏩
Jonathan transitions to discussing Ukrainian drone attacks, reporting that three out of 53 launched Shahed drones penetrated Ukrainian defences despite efforts to shoot them down, disable them through electronic warfare, or divert them towards Belarus. He cites claims by the Moncton Group suggesting that at least 10 Shahed-type drones might have traversed Belarusian airspace to strike Ukraine. He then mentions the closure of the Crimean Bridge due to a potential ongoing marine drone attack, referencing a previous attack on Lorozisk. Jonathan cites Kremlin's confirmation of two destroyed navy drones near occupied Crimea, but notes reports of explosions near the Zayev shipyard and unusual activity in Archinsavo. He acknowledges a comment from viewer Pierce01 corroborating the Crimean Bridge attack and suggests that Ukraine might be amassing resources for a substantial future assault involving both missiles and drones. He speculates on the potential impact of such an attack and its imminence. Jonathan delves into the predictability of Russian missile strikes, explaining that cyberattacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure typically precede physical bombardments by 48 hours, providing a crucial warning signal for Ukraine.
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Lavrov's Interview with Tucker Carlson
🎦 15:06-18:34⏩
Jonathan expresses his disdain for Tucker Carlson, criticizing him as a Russian mouthpiece and urging his viewers to be wary of Carlson's pro-Russian bias. He outlines the Russian peace terms presented by Sergey Lavrov in his interview with Carlson, including Ukraine's neutrality, the annexation of Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk by Russia, Zelensky's revocation of the decree banning negotiations with Putin, the repeal of laws against Russian culture, and Russian security guarantees for Ukraine. Jonathan denounces these terms as laughable and hypocritical, comparing them to the broken promises of the Budapest Memorandum. He criticizes Carlson for providing Lavrov with an unchallenged platform to spread propaganda and condemns the interview as shameful. Jonathan cites Twitter reactions and quotes Tim White's condemnation of Carlson for amplifying Lavrov's lies and acting as a Russian asset. He reiterates the absurdity of Lavrov's peace demands, highlighting the stark contrast between Russia's professed intentions and their actions in Ukraine, specifically the targeting of civilian infrastructure. Jonathan dismisses Lavrov's claim about a coup d'état in Ukraine in 2014 as a Russian talking point, emphasizing that Yanukovych's agreement to new elections and subsequent flight from the country while stealing assets did not constitute a coup.
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Fortifications in Kharkiv & Kursk
🎦 18:34-20:46⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the construction of fortifications, reporting that Ukraine has allocated an additional $164 million for defensive structures in the Kharkiv region, citing Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. He highlights the near completion of these fortifications, with approximately 800 support points already established and equipped, including drainage systems for water management. Conversely, he notes Russia's substantial investment of at least 10 billion rubles (equivalent to $99 million) in a defensive system in the Kursk region, despite their previous expenditures of $29.7 million on defences that failed to halt Ukrainian advances. Citing Chris O'Wickey's Telegram channel, Jonathan reveals that the entire Kursk border area is being transformed into a fortified zone. He cites local residents' accounts describing the construction work as the most lucrative employment opportunity, paying $49.50 per day in cash. Jonathan emphasizes the scale of these fortifications, which dwarf those previously observed in Grozny and the Donetsk People's Republic, with extensive trench networks, pillboxes, and caponiers. He contrasts this with his previous assessment that cross-border attacks by Ukraine would be tactically advantageous and ponders the potential implications of these fortified zones on future Ukrainian offensives.
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Sanctions on Georgian Officials
🎦 20:46-22:29⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukraine's imposition of sanctions on Georgian officials involved in suppressing pro-EU protests, following similar actions by Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. He emphasizes the importance of regional solidarity against Russian influence, quoting Zelensky's call for a united front against Moscow. He details the sanctions targeting 19 individuals, including Ivanishvili and his associates, accusing them of betraying Georgian interests. Jonathan quotes Zelensky's condemnation of this segment of the Georgian government for surrendering the country to Putin and highlights the connection to the ongoing protests within Georgia. He urges international partners, particularly Europe and the US, to take decisive action against these individuals and emphasize the potential for long-term consequences if they fail to respond effectively.
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Russian Economic Struggles & The Syrian Conflict
🎦 22:29-28:27⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Russia's economic woes, reporting a decline in foreign currency reserves to their lowest point since 2008. He attributes this to mounting deficits and Russia's decision to sell off gold reserves from its National Welfare Fund to bridge the budget shortfall. Jonathan welcomes this development and expresses a desire to see it continue. He transitions to discussing the Syrian conflict, noting the Syrian rebels' success in capturing territories and seizing significant quantities of Assad regime and Russian equipment, including tanks, air defence systems, and other military hardware. Jonathan highlights the rebels' rapid advance, capturing Aleppo, Hama, and potentially Homs, attributing this to the Assad regime's apparent capitulation. He cites Nell Reports' suggestion that the Battle of Homs could begin soon and questions the regime's willingness to resist. Jonathan presents speculation about a recently landed Russian Il-72 cargo plane in Syria, pondering whether it signifies the delivery of supplies to Assad or the evacuation of Russian personnel. He suggests that Putin might be facing a sunk cost fallacy in Syria, torn between increasing support for Assad and recognizing the potential risks of further involvement.
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Syrian Conflict Analysis & Implications
🎦 28:27-30:19⏩
Jonathan discusses analysis of the Syrian conflict from various sources. He first references Fighterbomber, a Russian Z-blogger and pilot, who describes the situation for Russian forces in Syria as catastrophic. This is echoed by Anton Gerashchenko, who reports Fighterbomber's assessment of Russian military bases and airfields as vulnerable and evacuation as impossible. Fighterbomber highlights the critical role of air power for Russian forces in Syria, accounting for 75% of their combat capabilities, and the vulnerability of key bases like Khmeimim Air Base and the naval base in Tartus. He emphasizes the limited ability to evacuate personnel and equipment, predicting future artillery and drone strikes on Russian positions. Fighterbomber acknowledges the rebels' swift territorial gains and admits that the initiative is no longer in Russia's favour. Jonathan emphasizes the detrimental impact of equipment losses in Syria on Russia's overall military capabilities, potentially hindering their ability to engage in other conflicts. He suggests that the situation in Syria presents a golden opportunity for Ukraine's allies to weaken Russia further, advocating for increased sanctions and military support to Ukraine. However, he expresses concern over the potential for a shift in US policy under the incoming Trump administration, citing Mike Johnson's opposition to further aid to Ukraine and Viktor Orban's alignment with Trump's stance. Jonathan criticizes Orban's attempts to blame the Biden administration for the war in Ukraine and interprets Orban's statements as a desire for a Russian victory and a call for Trump to facilitate it. Jonathan views this as a pivotal moment for Trump, forcing him to choose between supporting Ukraine or appeasing individuals like Orban.
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Wrap up
🎦 30:19-30:29⏩
Jonathan concludes by expressing his hope that the US will increase its support for Ukraine, believing that it would lead to a swift and favourable resolution to the war. He signs off with his usual "Toodlepips" and reminds viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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"If there's any viewer watching this who's still a big fan of Tucker Carlson, get your head checked."
