Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:30⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for his first update of the day. He is feeling a little unwell after catching something from his son but powers through regardless, even though it may impact his output!
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff report Russian losses for 27/01/2024
🎦 00:30-02:08⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses on 27/01/2024 are in the middle of the range expected with 740 personnel lost, 9 tanks, 19 APVs and 12 artillery systems. Jonathan remarks that 740 personnel lost, whilst sounding low compared to recent figures, is actually very high compared to figures released earlier in the war. 31 vehicles and fuel tanks were also destroyed.
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Andrew Perpetua's Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses for 27/01/2024
🎦 02:08-06:31⏩
Jonathan analyses Andrew Perpetua's latest figures for visually confirmed Russian equipment losses for the previous day. He notes that some of the equipment included in Andrew's figures were not necessarily destroyed in the last 24 hours and some of the figures are for equipment destroyed in attacks on Avdiivka and Novomykolaivka which happened over the last couple of months but were only recently documented/verified. The ratio of losses is approximately 5 or 6 to 1 in Ukraine's favour which is a serious issue for the Russians. The equipment lost includes a significant amount of artillery, tanks including T-72 and T-80s, BMPs and other equipment. Ukrainian losses were minimal with some older equipment that was destroyed during the counteroffensive but not previously mapped. A boat was also destroyed and 2 artillery pieces were taken out by Lancet loitering munitions. Jonathan notes that Lancet loitering munitions continue to be a problem for Ukrainian forces. Jonathan questions whether the high ratio of losses is partly because the Ukrainians are not committing their equipment close to the front lines in the same way that the Russians are as Ukraine is predominantly on the defensive. He believes that the losses for the Russians are unsustainable in the long term.
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Russian Military Reporter admits to heavy losses in Avdiivka
🎦 06:31-10:58⏩
Jonathan references a report from a Russian Military Reporter, Dimitri, which was translated by WarTranslated. Dimitri acknowledges that the Russians are taking heavy losses and describes one intersection in a tree line in Avdiivka where there are 10 destroyed Russian vehicles. Dimitri describes the current Ukrainian tactics as being focused on causing maximum destruction to Russian equipment and personnel. Jonathan outlines what he believes to be the current Ukrainian strategy which is based on what he refers to as "active defence" which is to trade land/territory to preserve their own equipment and personnel with the goal of inflicting such heavy losses on the Russians that they can launch a counter offensive when the balance of equipment is in their favour.
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Ukrainian Drone strike destroys Russian ammunition depot in Klishchiivka
🎦 10:58-12:08⏩
Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian drone strike which successfully destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Klishchiivka on 27/01/2024. The footage was published by Magyar, a Ukrainian soldier who commands a drone unit operating in the area. Jonathan highlights the importance of these units who are taking significant risks to support Ukrainian forces.
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Ukrainians using FPV drones against Russian vehicles
🎦 12:08-13:25⏩
Jonathan refers to another post by WarTranslated, this time about a Russian military reporter who described an FPV drone tactic being used by the Ukrainians whereby they place a drone on the road and wait for a Russian vehicle to approach before lifting the drone up and flying into the vehicle. The Russian military reporter says that the Russians need to deploy more electronic warfare systems to counter this. Jonathan says that both sides are learning and adopting each others tactics.
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Ukrainian Missile strike hits Russian vehicle repair shop
🎦 13:25-14:05⏩
Jonathan reports that a Russian heavy military vehicle repair shop has been hit by Ukrainian missiles, injuring 6 Russian personnel. No further details were provided as to the time and location. He links this to other strikes that have taken place recently in occupied areas such as Mariupol and Berdyansk, speculating that HIMARS may have been used.
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Partisans active in Nova Kakhovka
🎦 14:05-15:02⏩
Jonathan reports that partisans have been active in Nova Kakhovka, targeting and destroying Russian vehicles. It is not clear if the attacks were carried out by partisans or whether it was the result of infighting between different factions of the Russian army, but is good news for the Ukrainians.
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Fire at theatre in Moscow
🎦 15:02-15:20⏩
Jonathan reports that a theatre in Moscow has caught fire.
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Overnight missile and drone attacks
🎦 15:20-16:58⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine shot down 4 out of 8 Shahed drones overnight on 28/01/2024. Russia also launched several Iskander and S300 missiles but it is not yet clear what damage they caused. Yuri claims that Russia only has 900 high precision missiles left and is only able to produce 100 per month, which means that they are having to use them sparingly.
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Russian missile strike hits industrial facility in Kremenchuk
🎦 16:58-17:59⏩
Jonathan discusses a Russian missile strike that hit an industrial facility in the Kremenchuk district. The attack involved 2 ballistic missiles but no further details are available. Jonathan believes that this could have been an attack on Ukraine's military industrial complex.
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Kenneth Greg claims Ukraine has new Electronic Warfare weapon effective against Shahed drones
🎦 17:59-19:28⏩
Jonathan reports that Kenneth Greg, a Finnish soldier fighting in Ukraine, claims that Ukraine has a new electronic weapon capable of countering Shahed drones. There have been numerous reports recently of Shahed drones falling out of the sky intact and it has been speculated that Ukraine has improved its electronic warfare capability, but Kenneth goes further and claims that the Ukrainians are able to reprogram the drones and send them back to Russia. Jonathan expresses an interest in looking into this in more detail.
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Oil Refinery near Sochi still out of action following Ukrainian drone strike
🎦 19:28-19:56⏩
Jonathan refers to the recent Ukrainian drone strike on the Tuapse oil refinery near Sochi which was hit by Beaver drones and says that repairs are expected to take months.
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New US plan aims to strengthen Ukraine military by 2024 rather than retake land
🎦 19:56-27:17⏩
Jonathan discusses an article in the Washington Post which outlines a new approach by the US with the aim of strengthening the Ukrainian military by 2024, rather than provide them with the military aid required to retake land now. Jonathan believes that this is a continuation of the strategy adopted at the start of the counter offensive when it became clear that Ukraine would not be able to make significant territorial gains because of the heavily fortified Russian defences. The new approach outlined in the article describes a strategy based on four key phases - Fight, Build, Recover, Reform. The Fight phase will focus on providing more artillery ammunition, drones and air defence systems. The Build phase focusses on longer term support to help develop a highly deterrent Ukrainian military. The strategy aims to help key parts of the Ukrainian economy recover including steel and agriculture. Jonathan believes that the most effective way to defeat Russia is for the west to provide Ukraine with more offensive weapons such as HIMARS, Storm Shadow and Taurus missiles so that they can destroy Russian equipment, personnel and logistics. The article concludes by saying that the strategy aims to future proof aid against a Trump win in 2024 and that some people question whether shifting the focus from sending the maximum amount of weapons now is the right approach, with former NATO chief, Anders Fogh Rasmussen stating that "you cannot win a war by pursuing an incremental step by step approach". Jonathan agrees with this and believes that Ukraine needs everything now.
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Russian S7 plane almost takes off with faulty engine
🎦 27:17-27:41⏩
A Russian S7 airline, with 160 passengers on board, almost took off with a faulty engine. The pilots aborted take off during acceleration on the runway. Jonathan sees this is further evidence that the sanctions are impacting Russia's civil aviation industry.
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Wrap up
🎦 27:41-27:47⏩
Jonathan thanks everyone for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share.
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"Like, that's what I would do and you know it seems like this is part of the strategy but you know that's what they should have done for the last six months you know exclusively"