Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
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"The Russian army is an army of slaves"
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses Putin's stated goal for Russian forces to capture all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts by March 2023. He shows the current front lines and explains how much territory Russia would need to take to achieve this, suggesting it is a very tall order, especially considering how long it has taken Russia to almost capture the small city of Bakhmut.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupyansk to Kreminna Front
- Russian forces have increased shelling in the Svatove and Kreminna directions in preparation for an offensive in February. The Ukrainian military has pulled troops to the Kupyansk area due to increased Russian activity.
- Russians are preparing to destroy road infrastructure and mine bridges, dams and crossings in Tavolzhanka. This could be to disrupt Ukrainian logistics for future advances or isolate Ukrainian-held territory to facilitate a Russian offensive.
- ISW assesses the most likely course of action is a Russian offensive effort in Luhansk along the Svatove-Kreminna line in the coming months. Increased attacks near Kreminna suggest Russia may be setting conditions for this, but has likely not started the offensive yet.
Bakhmut Area
- Russian forces captured Sacco Vanzetti and Mykolaivka north of Bakhmut. There is debate whether this is to encircle Bakhmut or a launchpad to attack Siversk.
- Russians made incremental gains to the east of Bakhmut with fighting reported on the eastern edges of the city.
- To the southwest, Russians advanced in forested areas, stopping 2km from the Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut road. Ukrainians began a partial withdrawal from Ivanivske due to heavy losses.
Vuhledar
Russian marine brigades around Vuhledar have taken heavy losses, to the extent some units are refusing to press offensives. SOBR riot police units have been sent to suppress dissent among Russian troops. A Ukrainian soldier reports the enemy continues to attack with groups but without results. Morale has visibly dropped and they engage less openly. Shoigu's "Patriot" private military company is present in the area but has not participated in combat.
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Other Frontline News
Ukrainian forces hit a Russian surface-to-air missile system in Oleshky, Kherson oblast. Routine artillery duels continue in the rest of the area.
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Wrap Up
To wrap up, the Russians appear to be switching to an offensive posture, probing attacks and accumulating troops for an expected major offensive. Ukraine needs to hold on defensively with Western support until they can launch their own counteroffensives. Jonathan will be interviewing pro-Ukrainian mapper Andrew Perpetua soon, so stay tuned for that interesting discussion. As always, thanks for watching and supporting the channel!
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