Ukraine Conflict: 6-Day Full Frontline Update, Kursk Counter Update

"Good news, Russia's getting what it deserves."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:35⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for a frontline update, mentioning that he's using Andrew Perpetua's maps today. Jonathan also mentions that he still needs to make a fix to his own map following feedback from JR, but that it will be available again soon.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Synopsis of Russian attacks

🎦 01:13-02:30⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent change in Russian tactics in response to Ukrainian drone strikes. Instead of large columns of vehicles, the Russians are deploying smaller, dispersed infantry units that are harder to target, relying more on unarmoured vehicles. Jonathan explains the advantages and disadvantages of these tactics. The advantage of unarmoured vehicles is that they are harder to hit (requiring more ordnance) but the disadvantage is that they are unarmoured, leaving troops more vulnerable to mines, shrapnel, and direct hits.

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Ukrainian counter offensive in Kursk Oblast - overview

🎦 02:30-08:50⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk Oblast, highlighting the main area of activity in the northeastern sector toward Bolshoi and Solvatskoye. He references various sources, including Noel Reports, Serhiy Stenenko, and Russian military bloggers, who have provided insights into troop movements, equipment, and the intensity of the fighting. Jonathan notes that there is significant speculation that the offensive might be a diversion, with the main thrust yet to come. He also addresses the rumors of Ukraine's intentions to seize the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, deeming them highly unlikely. Jonathan discusses a comment from Sir Andrew Yermak "Good news, Russia's getting what it deserves". Jonathan also notes that it's likely that the Ukrainians are trying to secure this area ahead of negotiations on 20th January and beyond.

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Ukrainian counter offensive in Kursk Oblast - visual confirmation/analysis

🎦 08:50-14:31⏩
Jonathan provides further analysis on the Ukrainian counter offensive in the Kursk Oblast, noting that Ukrainian forces have landed 70 personnel in the forest south of Berdin. He highlights visual confirmation of Ukrainian units in both Berdin and Novosibirsk, suggesting their advance is more significant than Andrew Perpetua's map currently reflects. Jonathan acknowledges Ukrainian losses in the offensive. The Akhmat battalion reported destroying a considerable amount of Ukrainian equipment but also stated that their own troops were fighting heroically. Jonathan mentions a report stating there had been 42 combat clashes in Kursk and that evidence of damaged M1A Abrams tanks being evacuated from the area suggests the intensity of the conflict. He also cites sources, including the Korn Group, who have shared footage of Ukrainian units inside a village in Kursk, claiming they are advancing. Jonathan notes that Ada Osman, a source with a presence in Bakhmut and Chaziv Yar, reported that the Russians had launched a panicked mechanized assault in response to losing positions to the Ukrainian advance. Jonathan concludes this section by emphasising the dynamic nature of the situation, stating that the outcome of the counteroffensive remains uncertain.

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Ukrainian counter offensive in Kursk Oblast - Russian drone footage

🎦 14:31-16:28⏩
Jonathan discusses footage released by the Russians which purports to show Russian drones attacking a Ukrainian column advancing towards Russian positions, demonstrating that despite Ukrainian electronic warfare capabilities, the Russians can overcome this with fibre optic drones. He emphasises the fluidity of the situation, stating that claims of Ukrainian presence in the city of Kursk, along with rumors of their plans to seize a nuclear power plant, are highly improbable. Jonathan revisits some of the earlier Ukrainian counterattacks that took place before the main offensive, particularly in the villages of Kruglin, Koya, and Nova Ivanovka, where the Ukrainians successfully regained some territory. He acknowledges that this information is from before the new year and therefore likely to have changed, but highlights areas where Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian advances, inflicting heavy casualties, especially among North Korean troops.

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Ukrainian counter offensive in Kursk Oblast - conclusions

🎦 16:28-17:13⏩
Jonathan provides his analysis on the Ukrainian counter offensive in the Kursk Oblast. He predicts that the fighting will continue to be dynamic, with both sides experiencing losses. Jonathan believes that the Ukrainians' objective is to regain lost ground and establish stronger control over the area, potentially using it as a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations (after January 20th). He expresses hope that Ukraine will be able to make further inroads into Russian territory to strengthen their position in any potential talks.

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Kharkiv Oblast - overview/situation in Vovchansk

🎦 17:13-18:58⏩
Jonathan moves west to the two areas in the Kharkiv Oblast, just south of Belgorod. He observes that despite a recent increase in drone and missile attacks on Belgorod, there haven't been any shifts in control. Citing Tim White, Jonathan reports that Ukrainian commanders have noted lost positions in various areas. He specifically mentions Russia's storming of Vovchansk with some success in the north, and heavy fire hitting Ukrainian defenses further east in the districts of Zhezhezhove, Dvorichnaya, and Kuryakivka. Despite these reports, Jonathan points out that Andrew Perpetua's map doesn't reflect any changes in control in the Kharkiv areas. However, the map does indicate that Russia is actively trying to push back in these areas, particularly where Ukrainian forces have gained more stability and marginally pushed back Russian forces previously. Jonathan attributes this resurgence in Russian activity to the redeployment of troops back to their original positions, allowing them to resume offensive operations.

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Kharkiv Oblast - Russian assault near Kursk

🎦 18:58-19:42⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from Konstantin, a Ukrainian source frequently featured on Andrew Perpetua's livestreams, who claimed that Russia launched a massive assault overnight in the Kursk axis, contrasting with the Ukrainian attacks occurring during the day. Konstantin, citing information from a friend's unit, reported identifying 32 Russian armoured vehicles on their axis, of which 10 were destroyed. They also inflicted casualties, with 20 Russian soldiers killed and many more wounded, attributing these successes to Ukrainian artillery, FPV teams, and Konstantin's friend's unit. Jonathan reiterates that despite the presence of electronic warfare, drones are still active in Kursk.

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Luhansk Oblast - overview/situation near Dvorichna

🎦 19:42-21:07⏩
Jonathan shifts the focus further south to the Dvorichna area of the Luhansk Oblast, where the Russians have made advances across the Oskil River over the past three weeks. He notes their control over some parts of Dvorichna, which aligns with Tim White's earlier reports. Jonathan expresses concern over these Russian gains but observes that they have not been able to advance much further since crossing the river.

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Luhansk Oblast - situation near Peschany/Raya Rodka/Makivka

🎦 21:07-22:05⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Peschany sector in Luhansk Oblast, where the Russians have reached the Oskil River. He reviews the past week's activities, noting minimal Russian advances near Lozova and Senkove. He also highlights Ukrainian counterattacks around Raya Rodka, pushing back against Russian attempts to advance. While there are claims of Ukrainian forces regaining some ground in Makivka, Jonathan observes that these claims are not yet reflected on Andrew Perpetua's map.

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Luhansk Oblast - situation in Bilohorivka

🎦 22:05-25:45⏩
Jonathan discusses the situation in Bilohorivka, noting conflicting reports from different sources regarding Ukrainian territorial gains. He highlights discrepancies between Grayskull's map, which shows Ukrainian forces having retaken significant land, and Andrew Perpetua's map, which doesn't depict these gains. Jonathan acknowledges the challenges of accurately mapping control in areas with fields and tree lines, emphasizing that Andrew Perpetua often relies on shelling patterns and FPV drone footage to determine control. He explains that, in the past, the asymmetry in firepower between Russia and Ukraine allowed for easier identification of the shelling party. However, with the evolving situation, determining control based on shelling alone has become less reliable. Jonathan concludes that changes in map interpretations might not always reflect actual counterattacks but rather adjustments based on new information or revised interpretations of existing data.

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Donetsk Oblast - overview/situation in Chasiv Yar/Kalynivka

🎦 25:45-28:36⏩
Jonathan moves on to the Bakhmut area in Donetsk Oblast. He examines the situation in Chasiv Yar, observing that Russian forces have crossed the canal north of the town near Kalynivka and are attacking northward. Jonathan notes that while Russia has made some advances, the Ukrainians seem to have strengthened their control over parts of the grey zone. He also highlights a report from Noel Reports stating that Ukrainian forces successfully pushed Russian troops out of a crucial forest strip west of the Donetsk Canal, south of Chasiv Yar. Despite this report, Jonathan points out that there are no changes reflected on Andrew Perpetua's map, with both mappers indicating Russian control of the road crossing the canal south of Chasiv Yar. Jonathan concludes by stating that the situation in Chasiv Yar has been somewhat stable, which is positive news for Ukraine.

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Donetsk Oblast - situation in New York/Druzhba/Toretsk

🎦 28:36-29:40⏩
Jonathan discusses the situation south of Chasiv Yar, focusing on the towns of Toretsk and New York, where Russian forces are advancing along the railway line. He notes that the Russians are pushing through the center of Toretsk, effectively rendering the town under their control as Ukraine's hold has significantly diminished. Jonathan observes that the map reflects this, showing Russian gains in the central part of Toretsk and stronger control along the railway line near Druzhba. He points out the intensity of Russian attacks in this area, concluding that Toretsk is essentially lost to Ukrainian forces.

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Donetsk Oblast - situation in Prokrosk - Overview/update from Zhenya/situation in Lysivka

🎦 29:40-31:20⏩
Jonathan focuses on Prokrosk, where the Russians are attempting an encirclement. While there is no fighting in the town center, there are worrying signs. Jonathan shares an update he received from Zhenya, indicating that Russian attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Lysivka (west of Prokrosk) failed. According to Zhenya, the Russians are now confined to the central and western parts of Lysivka, along the pond, indicating a setback in their encirclement efforts.

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Donetsk Oblast - situation in Prokrosk - situation in Zelenya

🎦 31:20-33:30⏩
Jonathan focuses on Zelenya, a strategically vital village southwest of Prokrosk where intense fighting is taking place. He believes that Ukrainian fortifications along the line are crucial for holding back the Russian advance. The Russians, aiming to bypass these defenses, are pushing south of Prokrosk in an attempt to encircle the town. Jonathan quotes Zhenya, who states that losing Zelenya would allow the Russians to advance directly to Chunshina, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat and hold the main road running through Novopavliva and Nativka. This highlights the significance of Zelenya in preventing a wider Russian breakthrough in the area.

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Donetsk Oblast - situation in Prokrosk - situation in Zvirovo/Yudachny/Yelyzavetivka

🎦 33:30-34:38⏩
Jonathan continues with Zhenya's update, noting that Russian attacks south of Prokrosk, in the direction of Zvirovo, have been halted, similar to the situation in Yudachny. Zhenya emphasizes the critical need to hold these positions, as a Russian foothold in Yudachny would provide them with a bridgehead to launch attacks towards the Dnipropetrovsk region, allowing them to expand the conflict beyond Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Jonathan stresses the importance of anticipating such strategically important locations in the future. Zhenya concludes his update by reporting on a new Russian attack east of Mironov Rad, on Yelyzavetivka, where the Russians have gained control of high-rise buildings south of the village and destroyed a Ukrainian tank using an FPV drone with a fibre-optic cable, highlighting the ongoing challenges faced by Ukrainian forces.

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Donetsk Oblast - situation in Prokrosk - conclusions

🎦 34:38-35:58⏩
Jonathan provides his analysis on the situation in Prokrosk, noting that despite the main evacuation, there are likely still people remaining in the town. He compares it to previous battles like Bakhmut, where individuals held on for prolonged periods, enduring intense fighting and risking their lives. Jonathan portrays a grim picture of the situation in Prokrosk, with those remaining facing extremely difficult circumstances. He revisits the information shared by Zhenya, emphasizing the strategic importance of preventing a Russian advance towards Dnipropetrovsk. Jonathan reiterates that such a development would enable Russia to control the narrative of the conflict, portraying it as extending beyond the initially claimed territories. He concludes that Ukraine needs to prioritize holding back Russian advances toward these strategically vital oblasts.

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Donetsk Oblast - situation in Karakava/Shevchenko/Novopokrovka

🎦 35:58-37:10⏩
Jonathan moves further south to the Karakava area, which has witnessed significant and rapid Russian advances. He points out that as of Christmas Eve, the Russians had secured the power plant in the area and advanced northwards, capturing another village named Shevchenko. Jonathan observes that these developments have led to the increasing encirclement of Ukrainian positions in the area. Despite this, he highlights that there are no reports of urban battles taking place within Prokhorivka, with Russian forces yet to reach the city limits. He notes that the Russians are employing a strategy of capturing neighboring settlements to tighten their grip on Prokhorivka. Finally, Jonathan notes a small Russian gain near Novopokrovka in the Robotyne area.

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Zaporizhzhia Oblast - situation in Kamianske

🎦 37:10-37:10⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Kamianske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, highlighting ongoing activity despite a relatively static frontline. He notes reports from December 31st indicating active Ukrainian shelling of houses in Kamianske, suggesting potential shaping operations in preparation for a larger attack. Jonathan revisits the map, showing how the Ukrainians gained ground in the area over the past month, pushing across the river that divides the town. This highlights the dynamic nature of the conflict even in areas without major changes in control.

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Kherson Oblast - situation in Kimburn Peninsula/Tendra Spit

🎦 37:10-39:51⏩
Jonathan discusses the situation around the Kimburn Peninsula and Tendra Spit in Kherson Oblast. He references reports of Russian desertions, self-inflicted injuries, and complaints about "meat assaults," suggesting low morale and difficult conditions for Russian troops in these areas. Jonathan clarifies that these "meat assaults" likely refer to attacks involving boats across the estuary separating the peninsula from mainland Ukraine. Jonathan discusses how the Russians are complaining about heavy attrition rates due to these attacks, and that Ukrainian forces are actively bombarding Russian positions on the Kimburn Spit. He highlights a report from January 3rd and 4th describing intense Ukrainian artillery and drone attacks on the spit, resulting in Russian losses. This raises questions about whether these attacks are part of regular operations or a prelude to a larger Ukrainian offensive in the area. Jonathan analyses the feasibility of a Ukrainian assault on the Kimburn Peninsula. He argues that the peninsula's geography, with its limited access points and open terrain, makes it a challenging target. However, the reported low morale among Russian forces and the Ukrainians' ability to effectively utilize artillery and drones could present an opportunity for an attack. Jonathan concludes that it remains to be seen if a Ukrainian offensive in this area is viable.

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Wrap Up/Zelensky interview/Update from Noll Reports

🎦 39:51-42:27⏩
Jonathan concludes the frontline update and mentions the recent three-hour interview of Zelensky by Lex Fridman, which he believes will be released in English the following day. Jonathan hopes that the interview will provide valuable insights and perspectives for American audiences. He also provides a final update from Noll Reports concerning the fighting in Kursk. This update includes:

• Confirmation from Akhmat, a Russian Special Forces unit, that Ukrainian forces have entered Berdin during the offensive.
• Footage of a Russian vehicle exploding in Mala Lokhnia.

Jonathan concludes by expressing his certainty that more information from the Kursk offensive will be forthcoming and that he will continue to monitor the situation.

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