Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The Black Sea fleet will consist of only catamarans and rubber bananas for vacationers. F this, he says."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:21⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War news update - Part 1. He mentions that despite publishing a breaking news piece this morning concerning the sinking of the Sergei Kotov, this is the main news update for 5th March 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Russian Losses (04/03/2024)
🎦 00:21-01:19⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's daily report of Russian losses from the previous day, noting that the figures should be treated with caution. He highlights the high number of Russian personnel losses - 1,070 - and notes that this is three times the average. Armoured personnel vehicle and artillery system losses are also high at twice and three times the average daily losses respectively. Jonathan observes that the loss of 49 vehicles and fuel tanks will be challenging for Russia logistically, as will the loss of nine pieces of special equipment.
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Review of Ukrainian Losses (04/03/2024)
🎦 01:19-04:10⏩
Jonathan uses Bill's Dashboard of Statistics at ukrainwarstatistics.com to discuss Ukrainian losses, acknowledging that this is the key question on everyone's mind. Examining changes in occupied territory, he points out that Ukrainian losses in Avdiivka, while significant, are dwarfed by Russian territorial losses in their September counter-offensive and earlier in June. He questions whether Russia is building up to a larger offensive and whether they have the capacity for it, concluding that neither side has made significant territorial gains in the past 18 months. Reviewing Oryx's visually confirmed statistics, he notes that while Russia's losses are slightly higher, the ratio is not what Ukraine would like. He lists Ukraine's losses as surveillance and communication equipment, artillery pieces, tanks, armoured vehicles, civilian vehicles and a captured M113 APC. A Lancet strike on an unknown vehicle is dismissed, as there is no evidence to support Russian claims that it was a Gepard. Jonathan considers Ukrainian losses to be fairly standard.
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Review of Russian Losses (04/03/2024)
🎦 04:10-06:51⏩
Jonathan analyses Russian losses, highlighting surveillance and communication equipment, a high-value, short-range air defence system - an Estrella 10 - and artillery. Of particular note is the loss of two T-90Ms, the most advanced tanks Russia possesses, which have been abandoned. Jonathan recalls that Russia only had around 100 T-90Ms at the outset of the war and ponders how many have been destroyed, revealing that Thierry told him Oryx's data shows that the initial complement has been lost, which indicates that Russia is manufacturing new T-90Ms. Jonathan highlights a statement by the individual in charge of Rostec that the T-14 Armata tank is too costly to be deployed, and it is cheaper to produce T-90s instead - a tacit admission according to Jonathan. He recalls that 45 T-90s were destroyed a few months ago and speculates that all 100 may have been destroyed by now. Other Russian losses include T-72s, various BMP infantry fighting vehicles, BTRs, trucks, and civilian vehicles. Jonathan also draws attention to the destruction of Russian desert cross golf carts. He discusses speculation that Russia is using them to cross minefields as they are lighter or to allow four soldiers to fire in multiple directions. Jonathan concludes that they may be using them as a last resort due to shortages of armoured personnel carriers.
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Destruction of the Sergei Kotov
🎦 06:51-08:25⏩
Jonathan announces the destruction of the Project 22160 patrol ship, the Sergei Kotov, near Feodosia, close to the Kerch Bridge, by five Magura V5 USVs (unmanned sea vehicles). This is a significant loss for Russia, as it is another naval vessel destroyed. Jonathan corrects himself, stating that while other ships in this class have been damaged, this is the first confirmed destruction of a Project 22160. Three more Project 22160 patrol ships - the Vasily Bykov, Dmitry Rogachev, and the Pavel Derjavin, remain active with another two under construction. Jonathan outlines the ship's statistics, noting its 94m length, 14m width, 28-80 crew, and armament of guns and Kalibr cruise missiles. He highlights the strategic benefit of destroying a cruise missile-carrying ship for Ukraine.
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Speculation about what was on board the Sergei Kotov
🎦 08:25-09:49⏩
Jonathan speculates on what else was destroyed with the Sergei Kotov. Having previously stated that it had a Tor air defence system on its helipad, new information suggests that a Russian Ka-29 helicopter was destroyed in the attack. He ponders whether the destruction of a Tor air defence system around Feodosia would be more beneficial than a helicopter. Acknowledging that helicopters are high-value assets, Jonathan believes that an air defence system in that location could be more strategically valuable. He concludes that destroying either asset is a win for Ukraine, especially if the helicopter pilot was killed, before confirming that the information about the helicopter came from the spokesman for the Naval Forces of Ukraine, Dmitry Pletenchuk.
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Russian Reaction to the Loss of the Sergei Kotov
🎦 09:49-10:11⏩
Jonathan delights in the reaction of Russian milbloggers to the loss of the Sergei Kotov, quoting one, '13th,' who laments that if things continue, the Black Sea Fleet will consist of catamarans and rubber bananas and that Ukraine has scored a significant victory.
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Speculation about Russian Avionics being Compromised
🎦 10:11-11:43⏩
Jonathan discusses a Kyiv Post article citing Austrian aviation war expert, Tom Cooper, who speculates that the recent downing of 15 Russian aircraft could indicate Ukrainian and US technicians have compromised confidential defensive electronic systems. Jonathan notes that Ukrainian forces have captured vital components from downed Russian aircraft such as the RTU-518 PSM self-protection jamming pod from a downed Su-30, a system used on the Su-34 and Su-35. He hypothesises that this may have allowed Ukraine to develop countermeasures, or counter-countermeasures, making Russian aircraft easier to target.
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French HAMMER Guided Bombs Deployed in Kherson
🎦 11:46-12:40⏩
Jonathan reports that France is supplying Ukraine with 600 AASM 250 HAMMER guided bombs at a rate of 50 per month. Ukraine has already taken delivery of a batch, which has been used to destroy a Russian base at Kozachi Laheri (Cossack Camps), on the Dnipro River close to Kherson. Jonathan is unsure if the bombs have fins or wings, but he highlights the significance of the attack, which received widespread attention online, confirming their effectiveness.
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HIMARS strikes in Zaporizhzhia and Avdiivka
🎦 12:40-15:20⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainian military are using HIMARS to great effect. At 4pm yesterday, a Russian command centre of the 70th Guards Motorised Rifle Regiment in occupied Zaporizhzhia was destroyed. It is thought that many officers, including the commander, were killed, although the details are yet to be confirmed. Jonathan notes that this use of HIMARS to target command and control centres and logistics bases in occupied territories such as Zaporizhzhia is a tactic that hasn't been witnessed recently. He contrasts this with the recent use of HIMARS to target Russian training and award ceremonies. Footage is shown of two MLRS - possibly HIMARS or MARS 2s, firing on Russian positions in the south of Orlivka. Jonathan notes that they are being used defensively to the west of Avdiivka. He discusses the use of HIMARS as a replacement for artillery. While some argue that artillery should be used for closer targets, due to the expense of HIMARS rockets, Jonathan suggests that Ukraine may have more HIMARS rockets than artillery ammunition. He concludes that Ukraine is likely to use artillery where possible, reserving HIMARS for higher-value targets at ranges of up to 84 km. The 110th Mechanized Brigade used grenades and corrected HIMARS strikes in Orlivka to attack a group of Russians in Avdiivka, an example of combined arms activity.
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Railway Cable Fire and Arrest in Bryansk
🎦 15:20-15:52⏩
Jonathan reports that another railway cable has been set on fire in Russia, an act of sabotage that has become common. The FSB arrested Nikolai Evstinko, a 21-year-old former combatant in Ukraine, for the blaze near Chernetsk station in the Bryansk region, close to the Ukrainian border. Evstinko confessed to starting the fire and claims that Ukraine paid him. Jonathan is amused by this and moves swiftly on.
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Distant Strikes Overnight - Crimea and Beyond
🎦 15:52-18:13⏩
Jonathan moves on to overnight distant strikes. While there appears to have been a lot of activity, the main event is the sinking of the Sergei Kotov. He alludes to possible attacks taking place within both Ukraine and Russia. Although Russian sources claim that the Crimean Bridge was targeted by aerial and surface weapons and that the Russian Black Sea Fleet repelled the attack, Jonathan thinks this is unlikely, suggesting it is more likely that there was activity near the Sergei Kotov and nearby ships. He cites Maxar satellite images of the burning Gubkin oil depot in the village of Dover in the Belgorod region, Russia, just north of the Ukrainian border. While a fire broke out at the facility as a result of an explosion, there were no casualties. The fire, which was still burning this morning, sent plumes of thick black smoke into the air. The attack was launched from 100km inside Russia, according to a Russian Telegram channel. Jonathan speculates that oil terminals in Kursk, Bryansk, Belgorod, Voronezh, and Rostov-on-Don will be on high alert due to Ukraine's focus on these logistical hubs.
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Drone Attack on Odesa (Overnight)
🎦 18:13-19:00⏩
In contrast to events in Russia, overnight, Odesa came under a massive drone attack, with 18 of the 22 drones launched being shot down. Jonathan believes that most, if not all, were aimed at Odesa, demonstrating a decent interception rate for Ukraine. However, he cautions that unless the drones were shot down over the sea, there is a high probability that the 18 drones, or their debris, hit something, which will likely result in civilian, commercial, or industrial damage.
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Ukrainian Marine Drone Operations No Longer Reliant on Starlink
🎦 19:00-19:41⏩
Jonathan highlights a fascinating revelation from a Tim White in-depth feature about the Magura drones. Ukrainian marine drone operators are no longer reliant on Elon Musk's Starlink for operations. He welcomes this development and notes that they have found workarounds for the issues they experienced with Starlink. This is good news, given the recent attack by Magura drones near Feodosia, which demonstrates their ability to reach all around Crimea.
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Leaked Audio of German Military - Analysis and Discussion
🎦 19:41-25:53⏩
Jonathan moves on to the leaked audio of a meeting between German military personnel discussing Taurus missile strikes on the Crimean Bridge, in which they inadvertently implicated the British. A recent Guardian article explores the leak and its implications. While the Germans blame the leak on a participant from Singapore, it is an embarrassment for Germany. In response, Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, has threatened German journalists with expulsion, an action likely to backfire, according to Jonathan. He questions the strategic benefit to Russia, as they would already be aware of the presence of British troops in Ukraine thanks to comments made by German Chancellor Scholz. Jonathan believes that this will likely increase, not decrease, German support for Ukraine, as it will further inflame tensions. The revelation that British forces are present in Ukraine is not news, as Scholz had previously alluded to it. Jonathan confirms that British forces are indeed in Ukraine. He believes that releasing this information publicly doesn't achieve much, as it doesn't change the facts on the ground and questions whether Russia believes it will make Germany more or less likely to support Ukraine. He suspects it will result in more support, particularly in light of Zakharova's threats. Jonathan analyses the transcript of the leaked audio. In it, a German commander reveals that the British, unlike the French, have troops on the ground in Ukraine. He points out that this appears to contradict Scholz's earlier comments, which indicated that French troops were also present. Jonathan is intrigued by this new information about a possible lack of French involvement. Moving on to the British military presence, Jonathan discusses the Ministry of Defence's refusal to confirm or deny the presence of troops in Ukraine, despite rumours and speculation about their role in supporting Storm Shadow missile strikes. Even if true, the numbers are likely to be small. Jonathan believes that any support provided brings them a step closer to being a party to the conflict. He reminds viewers that Scholz previously stated that he could not accept Germany being involved in target control inside or outside Ukraine, as he believes it would make them a participant in the war. Jonathan believes that Russia would already be aware of the presence of UK troops from a variety of sources, including British leaks and Russian intelligence, and that the release of the audio is not a significant escalation. He questions why Russia chose to release it, concluding that it was not a sensible move. It is more likely to be of value to Ukraine and its allies. Jonathan points out that an analysis of UK parliamentary statements reveals that Britain reopened its defence section in Ukraine in April 2022, and a government minister stated in July 2023 that British troops were there in support of the UK's diplomatic mission and to provide training to Ukraine's armed forces. He confirms that the UK has a long history of special forces operations around the world, so their presence in Ukraine is not unusual, despite attempts to keep it quiet. He asserts that both British and US Special Forces will be operating in Ukraine, as well as a number of European Special Forces. Jonathan is certain of this and notes that he has received confirmation from other sources. He states that the SAS, SBS, and other British special forces operate in countries across the globe, so their presence in Ukraine should not come as a surprise, and he finds it inconceivable that they wouldn't be there. Jonathan believes that while the Ministry of Defence may be irritated by the leaks, they are too general to cause any serious damage. Interestingly, Downing Street's response has not been to complain, but to encourage Scholz to supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles. This demonstrates that the UK is not shying away from the revelations and highlights the UK's commitment to supporting Ukraine. Jonathan applauds the UK for doubling down and urging Germany to do more. He believes that the main benefit to Russia of releasing the leaks is to undermine Scholz, who is coming under pressure from the West and Ukraine to provide more support. However, he notes that the leaks have backfired, as they have increased calls for Germany to do more. Jonathan highlights that the leaked audio reveals that German experts believe that 10-20 Taurus missiles would be capable of destroying the Kerch Bridge.
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Russian Soldiers' Writings Found in Ukrainian Homes
🎦 26:11-26:48⏩
Jonathan shares his disgust at images posted by Julia Davis showing messages written on the walls inside Ukrainian homes after Russian troops retreated from Kharkiv. One message reads, "It's not a war crime if you had fun." Another states, "I will burn their villages with a happy smile." A final example states, "There are only two answers about Ukraine. 1. It didn't happen. 2. They deserved it. Both are correct." Jonathan is appalled that Russian soldiers are openly admitting to war crimes.
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John Kirby: Delays in US Aid Benefitting Russia
🎦 26:48-28:10⏩
Jonathan reports that the Kyiv Independent published an article quoting US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby who said Delays in US Aid are benefitting Russia. Jonathan agrees that this is true, as it has allowed Russia to make gains in places such as Avdiivka, Novomykolaivka, Marinka, and possibly Terny and Torske. However, he is doubtful whether they can sustain this momentum given that they have not made significant territorial gains in over a month. Jonathan believes that Russia's aim is to capture significant territory before 17 March 2024, which would allow Putin to boast about his success. However, they are sustaining substantial losses, which may make this unachievable. While Ukraine is also suffering heavy losses, Jonathan is sceptical that Russia can maintain this level of intensity or launch a larger offensive later in the year.
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Wrap up
🎦 28:10-28:13⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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