Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, In Memoriam
Table of Contents 📖
"this is the shame of war - it's just so so depressing...and that's...that's what war does, that's what the Russians do and there's no need for this war....it's just no need - just really really frustrating".
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:38⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel and apologises for the late video. He explains that "real life got in the way" - he had a child with sporting events and had to get over England losing to Scotland in the Six Nations rugby the day before after "fumbling the ball all over the shop". He jokes that he spent 16 hours in the shed after shouting at the TV.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:38-04:05⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses. He notes that the figures are high as usual but lower than they have been with 810 personnel lost, 8 tanks, 16 armoured personnel vehicles, 29 artillery systems and 23 vehicles and fuel tanks. Jonathan reviews the daily losses reported by Oryx (compiled by Andrew Perpetua) and notes that whilst Ukraine has done better than Russia, the losses are closer to parity than he would like - ideally Russia should be losing 3-5 times as much equipment as Ukraine. Jonathan observes that Ukraine have lost significant military equipment including an S-300PS launcher, three radar installations (a P-18, a KP 5N63s and an IE MHR radar) as well as artillery, a possible Slovenian modernised T-55 tank, BMPs, trucks and civilian vehicles. Russia lost a ToS-1A thermobaric multiple rocket launcher along with artillery, BMPs, APCs, trucks and civilian vehicles. Jonathan compares the statistics with those on a new website created by "Bill" - Ukraine War Statistics, which he has added to the description of the video. The site uses data from Oryx to provide daily loss summaries with maximums, minimums and means for each category. For example, today's reported losses of 16 APCs for Russia represents the 65th percentile and is the highest number of APCs lost in a single day since February 23rd. Jonathan encourages viewers to visit the site.
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Downing of Russian A-50 AEW&C - Analysis
🎦 07:06-13:20⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent downing of a Russian A-50 AEW&C aircraft over Belarus. Ten crew members were killed, including five Majors, three Captains, an Ensign and a Lieutenant, representing a significant loss of experienced personnel, particularly those operating the specialist equipment onboard the aircraft. Jonathan cites analysis from Trentolenko, who suggests that the aircraft was downed by a Ukrainian S-200 (NATO reporting name SA-5 Gammon) surface-to-air missile. The conclusion is based on the duration of countermeasure (flare) release, which indicates that the aircraft was under attack from an S-200 rather than Russian friendly fire. Trentolenko suggests that the A-50 crew should have descended quickly below the radar horizon and released all countermeasures; however, they failed to do so due to a lack of modern electronic warfare equipment and training. Jonathan draws comparisons with US Cold War tactics where the US military studied the S-200 during Operation El Dorado Canyon in 1986. Not everyone agrees with the S-200 theory - some Russian sources claim the aircraft was downed by friendly fire, a common explanation used to deflect blame from Ukrainian successes. Jonathan cites further analysis from John Ridge, who believes the missile seen in the video footage is a 9M317M or MA from a Russian Buk M3, a more modern surface-to-air missile system. Ridge believes that a salvo of two missiles was fired, the second of which destroyed the aircraft. General Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence, claims that the "special operation" to destroy the A-50 had been planned for two weeks and confirms that it was shot down by Ukrainian weapons. However, this does not rule out the possibility that the aircraft was brought down by Russian air defences responding to Ukrainian S-200s. Jonathan speculates that the Ukrainians may have factored this scenario into their plan.
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Ukraine War Round-up
🎦 13:20-20:12⏩
Jonathan provides a round-up of other news and footage from the war:
- Footage has emerged of a Ukrainian soldier repelling an attack by 10 Russian soldiers. The soldier, from the 8th Separate Motor Mounted Assault Battalion of the 10th Mounted Assault Brigade, fought back using small arms fire and grenades whilst being supported by Ukrainian drones. The soldier survived the encounter.
- Footage of fighting in Robotyne shows Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicles being destroyed by Ukrainian first-person-view (FPV) loitering munitions. Russian infantry deploying near the post office in the town also suffered losses.
- OSINT sources report that 11 Russian generals have been killed in Ukraine, many in 2023.
- Journalists estimate that 83,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine since February 2022, almost double the figures calculated by BBC Russian and Mediazona who have been using open-source techniques to track Russian losses. Jonathan notes that it is difficult to get a precise figure.
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assess that the situation in Ukraine is "grave" but not hopeless, noting that more Russian soldiers have likely died in the battle for Avdiivka than during the entire Soviet-Afghan war.
Ukraine battlefield news
🎦 21:06-23:45⏩
Jonathan provides further updates from the battlefield:
- A French-supplied Caesar self-propelled howitzer has been damaged by a Russian Lancet loitering munition, although it is unclear how serious the damage is. The crew was forced to abandon the vehicle, which did not detonate or catch fire.
- Russia continues to mobilise new forces at a rate equivalent to their losses in Ukraine - approximately 30,000 per month or 1,000 per day. This allows Russia to reinforce its units and sustain its offensive operations in spite of high casualties. Jonathan notes that most recruits are from the poorer, ethnic minority regions of Russia, which highlights the institutional racism and disregard for these communities at the heart of the Russian state.
- Overnight, Russia launched 18 Shahed-136 drones into Ukraine. 16 were shot down but the remaining two are likely to have hit their targets.
- Russian forces fired S-300 missiles at Kostantynivka, destroying a railway station that dates back to 1872. Jonathan expresses his sadness at the destruction caused by the war, describing it as "the shame of war"
- Explosions were heard in Khmelnytskyi, central Ukraine, suggesting that drones may have been active there, although it was unclear what the targets were.
Impact of War
🎦 25:56-36:28⏩
Jonathan reflects on the impact of the war:
- He reminds viewers that humans are not the only victims and shows footage of an animal injured during the fighting, describing it as "heartbreaking"
- Yuri Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, believes that the downing of the Russian A-50 will not necessarily reduce the number of Russian missile attacks on Ukraine, although it will degrade their ability to conduct radar reconnaissance.
- Jonathan recalls a conversation with colleagues in Ukraine in which they discussed the possibility of flights resuming. Whilst the head of the International Council of European Airports, Olivia Yankovets, believes that flights to Ukraine may resume this year, Jonathan remains sceptical, pointing out that trains are running unhindered, yet air travel is considered too risky. Jonathan wonders whether this is a false distinction.
- Footage has emerged of Russian soldiers carrying out a mock execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Jonathan expresses his disgust and challenges viewers who support Russia to justify their position in light of the mounting evidence of Russian war crimes.
- Jonathan light-heartedly discusses whether British supermarkets have renamed Chicken Kievs following the change to the Ukrainian spelling of the capital city's name to Kyiv. Whilst Waitrose and Sainsbury's have opted for "Chicken Kyivs", Tesco and ASDA have retained the old spelling, "Chicken Kievs".
- David Sachs, an American commentator and friend of Elon Musk, has claimed that F-16 fighter jets will not change the outcome of the war and accuses Ukrainian propaganda accounts of exaggerating the significance of Russian losses such as the A-50, which he describes as "a drop in the bucket". He concludes that "Russia is winning the war of attrition". Jonathan expresses his disdain for Sachs, who he believes is little more than a mouthpiece for Russian propaganda. He points out that the A-50 is a significant loss that highlights Russia's diminishing military capabilities.
- In a worrying development, it appears that SpaceX may be withholding Starlink satellite internet services in and around Taiwan, possibly in breach of SpaceX's contractual obligations with the US government. Mike Gallagher, a US lawmaker, has written to Elon Musk to express his concerns. Jonathan is troubled by these allegations and worries that Musk may be acceding to pressure from the Chinese government, in the same way, he appears to have yielded to Russian pressure regarding Ukraine. Jonathan suspects that Musk is putting his own business interests ahead of US and Taiwanese security. He invites viewers to share their thoughts.
- Finally, Jonathan highlights the catastrophic environmental damage inflicted upon Ukraine as a result of Russia's invasion. Damage to the ecosystem is estimated to be $62.6bn, exceeding the entire GDP of Latvia. The eastern regions of Luhansk, Donetsk and Kharkiv have suffered the worst damage.
Wrap up
🎦 36:28-36:32⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He apologises again for the late upload.
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