Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Arestovych, Hungary, Iran, & Tactics
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"Everything new is a well-forgotten old."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an extra Ukraine war update video with additional nuggets of information and analysis to give viewers a greater understanding of the war.
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Territorial Gains and Losses
- WarMapper graphs show the exchange of territory and gains each side has made since February 2022
- Russians took 6.91% in Feb 2022, rising to 10.95% in March, then lost 5.31%
- Gains reduced to negligible amounts until lightning Ukrainian offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson
- Recently, Russians gained 0.1% territory, their best gains in months, but still very little in context of overall war
- Bakhmut's potential loss would be a small area compared to all of Ukraine
Russian Plans According to Arestovych
According to Arestovych, a former Ukrainian official, Russia's plans include:
- Encircling Siversk, Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk
- Later targeting Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Siversk, Pokrovsk and Kupiansk again
- Gerasimov reports this is the maximum possible with 200,000 soldiers, with the contingency plan of drafting more if Ukraine counter-attacks
- Multiple Ukrainian sources confirm expectation of heavy battles in Donbas in late Feb/March
- Attempts to persuade of attacks in other directions like Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odesa, but no hidden signs of this actually happening
Bakhmut Tactical Considerations
- Ukrainians likely planning contingencies and new defensive lines after Bakhmut's potential fall
- Key locations for new lines include Chasiv Yar, Siversk, and along Bakhmutka river
- High ground around Chasiv Yar could provide defensive advantage
- Straight defensive line from Siversk southward another possibility
- Russians may try to skirt high ground and attack from north to south around Ukrainian entrenchments
Wagner Group Losses and Reduced Presence
- Arestovych claims fewer Wagner mercenaries near Bakhmut, possibly due to Gerasimov trying to phase them out
- Wagner had 4,000 killed and 10,000 wounded in Soledar over a couple weeks
- ISW also theorizes Wagner has culminated in Bakhmut and passed the baton to regular Russian forces who will seek glory in taking the town
- Could be part of Gerasimov's tactic to sideline Prigozhin and Wagner from the PR win, despite Wagner doing the bulk of the work
Ukrainian Isolation Tactics
A Russian page describes advanced Ukrainian tactics to isolate Russian combat zones:
- Constant drone reconnaissance to identify defensive positions and movement routes
- Striking movement routes to restrict Russian movement between positions
- Firing on any troops moving between shelters, sometimes using drone-dropped munitions
- Disrupting supply deliveries and evacuation of wounded
- Inducing fear and drop in morale to force abandonment of positions
The tactic still has weaknesses but could be enhanced with strike drones like Bayraktars. Russians expect Ukraine to attempt this on wider front with NATO help and are preparing countermeasures.
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Iran Drone Factory Attacks
- Drone attacks targeted an Iranian military facility in Isfahan, damaging the roof
- Suicide drones were likely launched from inside Iran, not long-range
- While aiding Ukraine is a side benefit, the strikes primarily serve Israel's interests against Iran supplying Hezbollah and Hamas
- Israel has struck Iranian nuclear and drone facilities several times in recent years
- Israel needs to balance support for Ukraine with maintaining Russian relations to keep Syrian airspace open for interdicting Iran-Hezbollah supply lines
- The limited strike sends a message that Israel can strike Iran at will to prevent arming of Hezbollah, with Ukraine being an incidental beneficiary
Hungary's Corruption Problem
Hungary has taken a nosedive in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index:
- Dropped 12 points since 2012, the second year after Orban took power
- Barely any other country where perceived corruption has increased so drastically
- Fell from a score of 55 to 43
- Rank dropped from 46th to 73rd
- Authoritarian regimes seem to attract corruption
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support, encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video, and mentions ways to support the channel in the video description. He appreciates all the help from his audience.
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