Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is the only way, and Ukraine is doing it right now."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-07:12⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a "bumper news" update, noting its length.
- He opens with a thought-provoking observation: the current state of the Russian military would have been unimaginable two and a half years ago. He highlights the immense losses in personnel, equipment, and strategic positioning, achieved by Ukraine at a fraction of the cost. This success, he argues, serves American strategic interests remarkably well.
- Jonathan acknowledges the "callous" nature of separating the human cost from this strategic viewpoint. He recognises the "horrific" realities on the ground in Ukraine.
- He emphasizes the difference between a micro and macro view of the war. While Ukraine faces setbacks on the Eastern Front, the bigger picture reveals significant degradation of Russian capabilities.
- He touches upon the intriguing possibility that the US strategy of measured military support might be a deliberate move to force innovation within Ukraine's defence industry, leading to the development of long-range weaponry. This, he speculates, could inflict more substantial damage deep within Russia.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses - 21/09/2024
🎦 07:12-08:45⏩
Jonathan presents the daily Russian losses based on figures from sources:
- Personnel: Over 1,440 (significantly higher than the usual 1,000-1,300 range)
- Tanks: 21 (more than double the daily average)
- Armoured Fighting Vehicles: 38 (double the average)
- Artillery Systems: 58 (nearly triple the average)
- Multiple Launch Rocket Systems: Double the average.
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 68
- Special Equipment: 10
Jonathan's Analysis: He stresses the severity of these losses for the Russians, particularly the high personnel count, marking a "really bad day" for them. He connects this to intense activity in areas like Kursk, Prokrovsk, and Vuhledar.
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Fire at Engels Airbase
🎦 08:53-09:09⏩
Jonathan reports on a fire at a Russian military housing complex in Engels, home to the Engels airbase frequently used to launch strikes against Ukraine. The cause of the fire is unknown.
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Russian Drone & Missile Strikes - Overnight 20/09-21/09/2024
🎦 09:09-10:52⏩
Jonathan details Russian strikes on Ukraine overnight, noting a comparatively quiet night regarding drone attacks:
- Drones: Only 16 were used, with all intercepted by Ukrainian air defences or electronic warfare.
- Missiles:
- 5 out of 5 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles were shot down.
- None of the 4 Iskander-M (or potentially North Korean KN-23) ballistic missiles were intercepted, a difficult feat without sophisticated systems like the Patriot or SAMP/T.
Civilian Casualties and Damage in Kryvyi Rih and Kharkiv
🎦 10:52-11:47⏩
Jonathan highlights the human cost of the conflict, citing specific instances of civilian casualties and damage from Russian strikes:
- Kryvyi Rih: Three people were killed, including a 12-year-old boy, and civilian infrastructure was damaged.
- Kharkiv: Jonathan shows footage of what appears to be either a bomb or missile strike occurring as a vehicle drives by.
Source: He credits Tim White for footage from Kharkiv.
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Russian Missile and Drone Strikes - 20/09/2024
🎦 11:47-12:20⏩
Jonathan summarises Russian attacks from the previous day (20/09/2024):
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Targeted with 4 Iskander-M missiles, 5 Kh-59/69 missiles, and 16 attack drones.
- Kharkiv: Three guided glide bombs hit the city, including one near a hospital previously damaged in a missile attack.
Russian Claims: 101 Ukrainian Drones Shot Down
🎦 12:20-12:45⏩
, 14:06-14:16⏩
Jonathan mentions a Russian claim about shooting down 101 Ukrainian drones, initially placing it out of context before correcting himself. The details of this claim are elaborated upon later in the video.
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Russian Targeting of Emergency Services
🎦 12:50-13:22⏩
Jonathan condemns the deliberate targeting of Ukrainian emergency services by Russian forces, citing examples of direct strikes on fire stations and the use of "double-tap" tactics, where a second strike targets first responders. Source: He references Andrew Perpetua, who provided images of the attacks.
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New Ukrainian Missile Drone ("Palyantia")
🎦 13:22-14:06⏩
Jonathan discusses the discovery of wreckage, allegedly from a new Ukrainian missile drone dubbed "Palyantia," found in Kursk Oblast. This drone is believed to be either jet or rocket-propelled.
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Analysis of Russian Claims: 101 Drones Downed - Locations & Implications
🎦 14:06-15:03⏩
Jonathan revisits the Russian claim from earlier, providing more specific locations where the supposed 101 Ukrainian drones were destroyed:
- Bryansk Region: 53 drones
- Krasnodar Territory: 18 drones (location of one of the ammunition depots)
- Sea of Azov: 16 drones
- Kaluga Region: 5 drones
- Tver and Belgorod: 3 drones each (Tver is near another ammunition depot 10 miles south of the recently hit Toropets facility)
- Kursk, Smolensk, and Crimean Peninsula: 1 drone each.
Jonathan also notes that a fire was confirmed at a military training ground on Cape Chauda in Crimea, suggesting a potential Ukrainian strike.
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Turchney Analysis: Toropets Ammunition Depot Strike - Damage Assessment
🎦 15:03-18:47⏩
Jonathan presents a detailed analysis from Turchney regarding the earlier Ukrainian strike on the Toropets ammunition depot:
- Confirmation: Sentinel-2 satellite imagery confirms significant destruction.
- Quantified Losses: 46 out of 62 ECMs (Earth-Covered Magazines/bunkers) were visually confirmed destroyed, representing 74.19% of the facility's storage capacity.
- Vulnerable Storage Practices: A considerable amount of ammunition stored in open areas contributed to the extensive damage.
- Impact: Estonian military intelligence suggests the strike may have destroyed up to three months' worth of ammunition, potentially impacting Russia's ability to sustain its war effort.
Sources:
- Turchney for the damage assessment.
- Key of Independent and Estonian Military Intelligence for estimations on the impact on Russian capabilities.
Toropets Ammunition Depot - Second Strike (19/09/2024) & Russian Responses
🎦 18:47-28:25⏩
Jonathan reveals a second Ukrainian strike on the Toropets ammunition depot complex, targeting a facility 10 miles south of the first one. He highlights the significance of this strike, noting:
- Footage: Limited footage is available, but FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System) data confirms extensive fires.
- Russian Claims: Typically, they attributed the damage to falling debris from downed drones.
- Transportation Hub: The targeted depot played a crucial role in transporting ammunition via a rail network that runs from Russia, through Belarus, and back into Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. This highlights Belarus's complicity in the war effort.
- Impact: Combined with the previous strike, the attacks are believed to have destroyed nearly a month's worth of munitions for the Russian forces in the north.
- Analysis: The strikes will likely force Russia to ration ammunition or prioritize certain fronts, impacting their overall combat operations.
Sources/Credits:
- FIRMS for satellite data.
- War Vehicle Tracker
- Anton Gerashchenko (correct spelling)
- Intel Schizo
- Special Curse on Cat for on-the-ground information.
Jonathan's Commentary:
- He humorously comments on the Russians' tendency to attribute damage to anything other than Ukrainian strikes.
- He expresses frustration at the lack of high-quality footage.
Tikhoretsk Ammunition Depot & Airbase Strikes - Overview & Significance
🎦 29:12-39:26⏩
Jonathan announces another major development: Ukrainian strikes on the Tikhoretsk ammunition depot in Krasnodar Krai. He emphasizes:
- Impact: The strikes targeted not only the ammunition depot, which housed North Korean munitions, but also a nearby airbase used by Russian bombers to strike Ukraine.
- Footage: Spectacular footage shows massive explosions and mushroom clouds, underlining the strike's intensity.
- North Korean Connection: The US confirmed in October 2023 that this depot stored North Korean munitions.
- Strategic Importance: Tikhoretsk serves as a critical logistics hub situated along vital rail lines supplying Russian forces in Donbas and Crimea.
- FIRMS Confirmation: Initially, there was no FIRMS data, but updates later confirmed multiple fires at the depot and the airfield.
Sources:
- Illia Ponomarenko
- PS01
- Special Curse on Cat
- Anton Gerashchenko (correct spelling)
- Euromaidan Press
- Tatu Tataragami (spelling corrected)
- Military Watch
Jonathan's Comments:
- He remarks on the irony of Russia receiving North Korean missiles and then having those very missiles destroyed.
- He notes the strategic brilliance of Ukraine's recent attacks, suggesting they are part of a deliberate strategy to demonstrate capabilities to Western allies.
Wagner PMC Base Fire in Molkino
🎦 39:26-40:12⏩
Jonathan reports a fire at the Wagner PMC base in Molkino village, Krasnodar. Details are limited, but footage shows administrative buildings engulfed in flames. Sources: He credits footage to Budenov.
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Ukrainian POW Returns Home After Two Years - Impact of Torture
🎦 40:12-41:19⏩
Shifting gears, Jonathan shares a distressing video of a 22-year-old Ukrainian soldier returning home after two years as a Russian POW. The soldier, who endured electroshock torture, is unresponsive, doesn't recognise his mother, and exhibits signs of severe trauma. Jonathan highlights the plight of Ukrainian POWs, with an estimated 95% subjected to torture while in Russian captivity.
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Death of American Pro-Russian Fighter Russell Bentley
🎦 41:19-42:41⏩
Jonathan discusses the death of Russell Bentley, an American who joined pro-Russian forces in Ukraine.
- Russian Investigation: Russia claims three of their soldiers tortured and killed Bentley before destroying his body in a car bombing to conceal the crime.
- Jonathan's Take: He notes the uncomfortable position this puts the US in, given Bentley's allegiance.
Russian Public Opinion on the War - Poll Results & Analysis
🎦 42:41-45:33⏩
Jonathan cites a poll indicating waning support for the war among Russians. While the poll claims 49% support troop withdrawal from Ukraine, he believes the actual figure is likely higher, given the potential for skewed results in an authoritarian state. He posits that growing economic hardship and casualties are eroding public backing for the war, which he characterises as "frivolous" and driven by Putin's "narcissistic fever dream." Jonathan's Analysis: He argues that the true cost of the war, both in economic hardship and human life, is becoming increasingly apparent to the Russian populace. This, he believes, undermines any genuine support for the conflict, which was never rooted in popular sentiment to begin with.
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Ukraine's Strategy: Military Successes and Appealing to the West
🎦 45:33-47:21⏩
Jonathan concludes by praising Ukraine's multi-pronged strategy. He believes the recent military successes, particularly the strikes deep within Russia, are part of a deliberate campaign to demonstrate capabilities to Western allies. This, he suggests, strengthens Ukraine's case for increased military aid. He draws parallels with the sinking of the Moskva, not just for its material impact but for its symbolic value.
- Shifting Red Lines: Jonathan argues that Ukraine's ability to strike targets within Russia, even those with potential "red line" implications, without provoking a major escalation, may make Western powers more willing to provide advanced weaponry.
Jonathan's Opinion: He expresses hope for continued pressure on Russia and speculates on their potential reactions. He also comments on the hypocrisy of figures like Donald Trump Jr. and Jake Sullivan criticising Ukraine's actions when their rhetoric only strengthens the argument for providing Ukraine with the means to defend itself.
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Wrap Up
🎦 47:21-47:24⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers and signs off.
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