Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"It is possible right now to give Ukraine everything it needs to repel Russian aggression."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:39⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another installment of ATP Geopolitics, emphasizing the recent live stream fundraising event for an armoured medical evacuation vehicle to aid Ukraine.
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Slovenia to Supply Artillery Shells
🎦 00:39-00:53⏩
Slovenia joins the Czech initiative to provide artillery shells to Ukraine, contributing €1 million to the cause. Jonathan highlights the growing momentum of this initiative.
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EU's Pledge of 1 Million Artillery Shells to Ukraine
🎦 00:53-03:25⏩
Jonathan discusses the EU's pledge to deliver 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine, noting the challenges in achieving this target due to production capacity limitations and bureaucratic hurdles. He highlights:
- The EU's decision to procure shells from outside Europe to supplement internal production.
- Thierry Breton's announcement that the EU will deliver 550,000 shells by the end of March, while Ukraine has independently purchased 350,000 shells.
- Jonathan dismisses concerns about meeting the March deadline, emphasizing the significance of increased European production and ongoing bilateral assistance to Ukraine.
- He argues that the focus should be on the sustained supply of ammunition rather than arbitrary deadlines.
Czech Republic's Role in Supplying Artillery Shells
🎦 03:25-05:35⏩
Jonathan delves into the Czech Republic's instrumental role in securing artillery shells for Ukraine:
- He notes the Czech Republic's success in procuring 800,000 shells from various global suppliers, with the potential to purchase an additional 700,000 shells.
- Jonathan acknowledges the Wall Street Journal's report that some suppliers are Russian allies but underscores the strategic importance of these shells reaching Ukraine, denying Russia access to them.
- He emphasizes the zero-sum nature of this arms supply, where any reduction in the global availability of shells directly benefits Ukraine.
German Aid Update: Ambulances and Medical Supplies
🎦 05:35-05:50⏩
Jonathan provides an update on German aid to Ukraine:
- The city of Hamburg donated six ambulances to Kyiv, accompanied by additional medical equipment such as suction pumps and ventilators.
- Jonathan emphasizes that this aid comes directly from the city of Hamburg, not the German central government.
NATO Presence in Ukraine: Arms Control, Intelligence, and Training
🎦 05:50-06:28⏩
Jonathan discusses the revelation by Spanish newspaper El País that NATO soldiers are already present in Ukraine, engaged in arms control, intelligence operations, and training:
- While acknowledging that this information is not entirely new, Jonathan argues that its public disclosure could pave the way for more open discussions regarding future personnel aid to Ukraine from its allies.
- He speculates that this normalization of NATO's presence could make it more palatable for member states to provide further support.
Ukraine to Purchase Attack Drones
🎦 06:28-07:25⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukraine's allocation of $128 million for procuring attack drones:
- He links this decision to the success of recent Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian oil refineries.
- Jonathan emphasizes the potential economic impact of these attacks, as they disrupt Russia's ability to finance the war effort.
John Kirby on the Situation in Ukraine
🎦 07:25-08:34⏩
Jonathan shares a clip of John Kirby, the US National Security Advisor, discussing the situation in Ukraine:
- Kirby refutes the notion of a stalemate, describing Russia's slow but steady advance in the Donbas region as a means to secure minor victories ahead of upcoming elections.
- He highlights the urgency for the US to approve supplemental funding for Ukraine, emphasizing the critical need for artillery ammunition and other capabilities to counter Russian aggression.
- Jonathan places blame for the funding delay on Mike Johnson and his political influences.
Russian Arms Exports in Decline
🎦 08:34-11:06⏩
Jonathan delves into the significant decline in Russian arms exports, citing data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI):
- He notes a 53% drop in Russian arms exports between 2014-2018 and 2019-2023, pushing Russia from second to third place in global arms export rankings.
- In 2023 alone, Russia's position plummeted to sixth place, with exports primarily consisting of fulfilling legacy deals from previous years.
- Jonathan points out that these figures represent a decline of 84% compared to 2013.
Analysis of Declining Russian Arms Exports
🎦 11:06-17:30⏩
Jonathan, referencing a video by YouTuber Perun, analyzes the reasons behind the decline in Russian arms exports:
- He emphasizes that the decline is not due to a shrinking global arms market but rather Russia's shrinking share of it.
- Jonathan illustrates the severity of the decline by comparing it to the smartphone market, where Russia's position has gone from that of Samsung to a fractional share of Vivo.
- He attributes the decline to factors such as Russia prioritizing equipment for its war in Ukraine, substantial battlefield losses, and reduced customer demand due to sanctions and reputational damage.
- Jonathan stresses that this decline will have severe economic and geopolitical ramifications for Russia in the long term, impacting its ability to finance the war, maintain its sphere of influence, and project power globally.
Pope Francis' Controversial Statements
🎦 17:30-20:11⏩
Jonathan criticizes Pope Francis for two recent actions:
- Congratulating Putin on his election victory, aligning himself with countries like Bolivia, Venezuela, and Cuba, which have also recognized the election.
- Defending Hungary's Viktor Orbán against criticism from the EU, despite Hungary's descent into corruption and democratic backsliding.
Jonathan expresses disappointment with the Pope's stance, especially his criticism of the EU for upholding democratic standards.
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Jared Kushner's Business Dealings in Serbia
🎦 20:11-22:16⏩
Jonathan discusses the New York Times' report on Jared Kushner's business deal in Serbia, viewing it as concerning and politically motivated:
- He details Kushner's acquisition of a 99-year lease at no cost and the right to build luxury properties in Belgrade, a move seen as benefiting from Serbia's alignment with Russia.
- Jonathan connects this to a pattern of Trump and his associates aligning with the Russian sphere of influence.
Trump's Admiration for Dictators
🎦 22:16-24:51⏩
Jonathan criticizes Donald Trump's admiration for dictators, highlighting a recent audio clip where Trump expresses his desire for the American people to treat him with the same deference that North Koreans show to Kim Jong-un. Jonathan is disturbed by Trump's words, interpreting them as an endorsement of authoritarianism and a yearning for unquestioning obedience.
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Lindsey Graham's Visit to Kyiv and Hungarian Protests
🎦 24:51-26:17⏩
Jonathan shares two updates:
- US Senator Lindsey Graham's visit to Kyiv, a positive sign of support for Ukraine despite Graham's sometimes contradictory stance on the war.
- A protest in Hungary where 50,000 citizens demonstrated against Viktor Orbán's pro-Russian policies, calling for a return to democratic values.
Putin's Post-Election Speech and the Suppression of Dissent
🎦 26:17-27:45⏩
Jonathan analyzes Putin's post-election speech, focusing on its propaganda and the suppression of dissent in Russia:
- He highlights Putin's portrayal of Russia as a bastion of "traditional values" while condemning the West, dismissing the American election process as undemocratic, and threatening to establish a "sanitary zone" in eastern Ukraine.
- Jonathan emphasizes the rigged nature of the election, pointing to the lack of genuine opposition, restrictions on free speech, and intimidation tactics employed to secure Putin's victory.
The True Cost of Putin's War
🎦 27:45-30:16⏩
Jonathan discusses the broader implications of Putin's war and its impact on both Russia and the West:
- He emphasizes that the conflict extends beyond the battlefield, encompassing informational, economic, and ideological dimensions.
- Jonathan argues that Putin's true objective is to undermine the very concept of a free world, as it threatens his grip on power.
- He underscores the importance of Western support for Ukraine, not just for Ukraine's survival, but for the security of the free world, urging for decisive action to prevent Putin's expansionist ambitions.
Gerhard Schröder's Pro-Russian Stance
🎦 30:16-31:20⏩
Jonathan criticizes former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder for praising Olaf Scholz's cautious approach to aiding Ukraine and his reluctance to supply Taurus missiles. He attributes Schröder's pro-Russian stance to his deep ties to the Kremlin and his involvement in the Russian information space.
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International Condemnation of Russian Elections
🎦 31:20-33:20⏩
Jonathan highlights the international response to the Russian elections:
- Lithuania and Germany officially declared the elections illegitimate, a stance Jonathan hopes will be adopted by all of Europe.
- He cites statements from the Lithuanian and German foreign ministers condemning the lack of choice and repression surrounding the elections.
- While France acknowledged the election results, Jonathan points out that they did so without offering congratulations and criticized Russia's actions in occupied Ukrainian territories.
Protests Against Putin and Support for Georgia
🎦 33:20-34:07⏩
Jonathan briefly touches upon two points:
- Protests against Putin taking place in Tbilisi, Georgia.
- His hope that upcoming elections in Georgia will see the defeat of the pro-Russian party.
Critique of Western Media's Portrayal of Czechia
🎦 34:07-38:23⏩
Jonathan criticizes Western media outlets, particularly the Wall Street Journal, for referring to Czechia as a "small ex-Soviet satellite state." He argues that such language is not only reductive and insulting but also plays into Russian propaganda by framing these nations solely through their past relationship with the Soviet Union. Jonathan contends that this perpetuates a narrative of Russian dominance and ignores the agency and independence of countries like Czechia.
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Czechia Proposes Ban on Russian and Belarusian Grain Imports to the EU
🎦 38:23-39:39⏩
Jonathan reports that the Czech Minister of Agriculture, Marek Viborny, has proposed a ban on Russian and Belarusian grain imports to the EU.
- Viborny argues that supporting the Russian economy through grain purchases is unacceptable.
- He emphasizes that the ban would not significantly impact food prices, as alternative supplies are readily available.
Romania Expands Military Base: Strengthening NATO Presence
🎦 39:39-40:52⏩
Jonathan highlights the expansion of a Romanian military air base, noting its significance in bolstering NATO's presence in the Black Sea region:
- The expanded base, intended for training F-16 pilots, will be larger than Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
- Jonathan emphasizes that Russia's actions in Ukraine have had the unintended consequence of strengthening NATO's resolve and presence in Eastern Europe.
Wrap up
🎦 40:52-41:00⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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