Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, AP Loss Lists Return!
Table of Contents 📖
"Normalizing relationships with Russia is normalizing invading other countries."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:57⏩
*Jonathan welcomes the team to the Ukraine War News Update for 18th February 2025, Part 1. *He apologises for the late morning update due to a busy news cycle. *Mentions rumours of a potential €700 billion aid package from the EU to Ukraine, possibly after German elections, hinted at by Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister. *Discusses UK Defence Secretary John Healy's comments on reinvestment in the British armed forces after significant cuts, linking it to lessons learned from Ukraine and economic stimulus. *Shares his positive impressions of John Healy, Ben Wallace, and Grant Shapps as Defence Secretaries. *Jonathan digresses into a personal anecdote about watching "SAS Rogue Heroes" and the music featured, including "Counting the Beat" by The Swingers and its connections to Split Ends, Crowded House and Pearl Jam, and then "These Animal Men". He acknowledges this might be uninteresting to viewers but shares it anyway.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses: Ukrainian General Staff Figures
🎦 02:57-04:12⏩
*Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, with the usual caveats about accuracy. *Personnel losses are slightly lower at 1,170, down from over 1,500 recently, fluctuating possibly due to weather and culmination of Russian attacks. *Equipment losses are mixed: tank losses are above the daily average, APCs are below, and artillery systems remain high. *Specific equipment losses include:
- 1,170 personnel
- Slightly lower tanks (above daily average)
- Lower Troop Kang FVs (below daily average)
- High artillery systems
- 2 MLRS
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system
- 74 vehicles and fuel tanks (down from previous days)
- 1 piece of special equipment
- 181 drones
*Drone losses remain very high, indicating continued heavy drone usage by Russia. *Overall, Jonathan characterises it as a "mixed bag" of Russian losses.
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Russian losses: Andrew Perpetua Loss List
🎦 04:12-07:46⏩
*Andrew Perpetua's loss list is back after his holiday, expected to include a backlog of data. *Yesterday's ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is estimated at 2-3 to 1. *Ukrainian losses include:
- Artillery: General Howitzers and Soviet-era pieces.
- Tanks: 5 Soviet-era tanks (mainly T-64BVs, some T-80s), all irretrievably lost.
- AFVs: Damaged Bradley, destroyed BMP-2 (not significant numbers).
- APCs: M113s (captured, abandoned, destroyed, damaged), VAB.
- Infantry Mobility Vehicles: Humvees, Oncillas, Ivecos.
*Russian losses show more combat assets and equipment losses overall. *Key Russian losses:
- Air Defence: Damaged TOR M2 and Buk M3 systems.
- Boats: 2 destroyed.
- Engineering vehicle: Excavator damaged.
- Artillery: Damaged.
- Tanks: 6, including 3 "track garden sheds", suggesting degradation of Russian tank forces and conversion of tanks to APCs due to material shortages and changing battlefield needs.
- IFVs: Dozen, mainly BMP-3s but also some BMP-2s and a BMP-1 destroyed, possibly indicating depletion of older models.
- Trucks: Numerous.
- ATVs: Mainly quads, mostly destroyed.
- Civilian vehicles: Motorcycles, pickup trucks, "loafs", cars.
*Jonathan concludes these are challenging statistics for Russia, particularly the air defence system losses.
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Footage of Russian Losses
🎦 07:46-08:16⏩
*Footage shows an Omega unit destroying a Russian assault column with precise mortar fire, resulting in three vehicles destroyed and personnel eliminated. *Another video from the Prokrosk area shows a Russian infantry attack being repelled. *These videos demonstrate that Russian forces are "getting bloody noses" in several areas, though this does not negate potential Russian advances elsewhere.
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Tracking Fibre Optic FPV Drones
🎦 08:16-09:45⏩
*Reports suggest fibre optic cables of FPV drones can glint in sunlight, potentially making them detectable. *This could be a method to target fibre optic FPV drones, which are otherwise resistant to electronic warfare jamming. *Footage shows Ukrainian forces tracking Russian drone operators by following the fibre optic cable and destroying them. *This vulnerability is likely to apply to both sides using fibre optic drones.
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Drone Attack on Russian Airbase in Syria
🎦 09:45-10:12⏩
*Syrian media reports a drone attack on the Russian Khmeimim airbase in Syria. *Concerns are raised about looting of Russian and Syrian equipment in Syria, which could have been useful in Ukraine. *The attack on the Russian airbase is noted as an interesting development.
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Explosion on Tanker "Sea Jewel"
🎦 10:12-11:07⏩
*Two explosions occurred on board the tanker "Sea Jewel", transporting Russian oil to Europe, potentially circumventing sanctions. *The crew reported loud bangs, and hull damage indicates explosive devices below the waterline. *A fish kill nearby supports the theory of explosive use. *Savona Coast Guards are investigating with divers. *Jonathan expresses concern about environmental damage from attacking oil tankers, questioning the value of such actions but acknowledging the event's significance.
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Russian Drone Attack on Ukraine
🎦 11:33-12:14⏩
*Russia launched a massive Shahed drone attack overnight. *Out of 176 drones launched:
- 103 shot down.
- 67 suppressed.
- 6 got through.
*Damage reported in Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Chuhuiv. *Controversy surrounds a high-rise apartment block hit in Kirovohrad.
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Elon Musk's Pro-Russian Stance
🎦 12:14-13:25⏩
*Max24 criticises Elon Musk for praising "competent leadership" in relation to Sergei Lavrov and for comments seemingly supporting a pro-Russian politician in Romania. *Musk called Sergei Lavrov a competent leader as Lavrov arrived in Riyadh. *Musk also commented on protecting Romanian sovereignty concerning Georgescu, a far-right, pro-Russian figure involved in Romanian election controversy. *Jonathan interprets Musk's actions as overtly pro-Russian, stating it is "obvious" and that Musk is a "Russian agent". *He condemns Musk's silence on Russian strikes against Ukrainian civilian buildings.
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Russia Improving North Korean KN-23 Ballistic Missiles
🎦 13:37-14:05⏩
*Ukraine's intelligence chief, Budanov, reports Russia has improved the accuracy of North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles. *Error margin reduced from 500-1500 meters to a much deadlier precision. *North Korean-Russian military ties are deepening.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Oil Infrastructure
🎦 14:05-15:27⏩
*General Stafford confirmed Ukrainian precision strikes two nights prior on Russian military and fuel/energy infrastructure. *Key targets hit:
- Ilsky Oil Refinery (fire reported).
- Kropotkinskaya and Andriopol pumping stations (disrupting fuel supply).
- CPC oil pumping station seriously damaged (confirmed by Transnet).
*The raid involved seven drones stuffed with explosives and metal striking elements. *Consequences of the attack on the CPC pipeline are expected to last 1.5-2 months, potentially decreasing oil pumping from Kazakhstan by 30%. *The Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station, the largest on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline in Russia, is reportedly out of order. *This is deemed "super, super important" and will significantly impact oil transport from Kazakhstan via Russia.
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Livestream Recommendations
🎦 15:45-16:38⏩
*Jonathan recommends viewers check out his recent livestreams:
- Livestream with Kaelin Robertson (Kyiv-based reporter) from two/three days prior - described as a "magnificent chat".
- Livestream with Brendan Kelly from yesterday - described as "absolutely awesome", covering peace negotiations and the US's role, with a "real frank discussion" about US politics' impact on Ukraine.
*He encourages viewers to watch both livestreams for relevant insights. *He notes that live streams can be missed and emphasises their importance for understanding current events.
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Rumours of Ukrainian Elections in October 2025
🎦 16:38-17:25⏩
*Noel Reports indicates Ukrainian elections will take place on 26th October 2025. *Former President Poroshenko claims sources in the President's office, law enforcement, and the state printing plant indicate ballot calculation is underway. *Jonathan suggests this aligns with Russian and potentially US desires for elections, despite constitutional and wartime challenges. *He criticises the US for "parroting Russian propaganda" by suggesting elections should be held in Ukraine now.
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Russian Cavalry Use
🎦 17:35-18:09⏩
*Footage shows Russians using horses, suggesting equipment shortages. *Multiple reports of Russians using horses, donkeys, and even a camel. *Jonathan believes this is evidence of Russia struggling for mechanised equipment and resorting to "cavalry regiments".
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Pro-Russian Cyberattack on Italian Institutions
🎦 18:09-18:37⏩
*Websites of approximately 20 Italian institutions, including banks and airports, were targeted by a pro-Russian hacker group. *The hackers claim this was retaliation for Italian President Sergio Mattarella comparing Russia's actions in Ukraine to the Third Reich before WWII. *Jonathan condemns the cyberattacks as "warfare" and believes Italy should retaliate.
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Counterproductive Nature of Russian Cyberattacks
🎦 18:37-19:49⏩
*Jonathan argues that these cyberattacks are "Russia shooting themselves in the foot". *He believes overt Russian aggression, even in cyberspace, will likely backfire and increase negative public opinion towards Russia in targeted countries. *Such actions may strengthen support for actions against Russia in countries where public opinion is divided. *He hopes these actions will further isolate Russia internationally.
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AI Bots and Troll Farms on Twitter
🎦 19:49-21:40⏩
*Malcontent News reports, citing an Estonian cybersecurity expert, that up to 70% of claimed European Twitter accounts are AI bots or troll farm operators. *Jonathan is unsurprised by this, calling it a "massive, massive challenge". *He notes the ease with which bots can be created to interact with tweets (login, reply, retweet, like), which can be scaled up by "bad actors" like the Internet Research Agency. *He describes Twitter as a "cesspit of bots and troll activity". *He criticises Elon Musk's "free speech absolutist" approach, suggesting it facilitates bot and troll activity that often aligns with Musk's agenda.
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Impact of Biased Media on Public Opinion
🎦 21:40-23:17⏩
*Jonathan links the decrease in US support for Ukraine, particularly among Republicans, to biased media diets (Fox News, Newsmax, OANN, Twitter). *He shares an anecdote about a friend who quit Fox News due to its lack of integrity and agenda-driven reporting. *He mentions JP Lindsley, a former Fox News insider who also left due to similar issues. *He states that Fox News uses "infotainment" as a legal defense, implying accuracy and truth are secondary to entertainment and agenda. *He argues that these channels are currently promoting a pro-Trump/anti-Ukraine agenda, significantly influencing their audience's beliefs.
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US-Russia Meeting in Riyadh and Concerns about US Policy Shift
🎦 23:17-25:37⏩
*Tim White and others report on a US-Russia meeting in Riyadh, focusing on the US potentially becoming an "adversary of Ukraine". *Concerns that the US is having bilateral discussions with Russia "over Ukraine's head" and normalising relations, potentially reopening embassies. *Jonathan strongly criticises this normalisation, comparing it to normalising relationships with historical genocidal figures like Hitler, arguing Russia should be treated as a "pariah state". *He believes US pressure is still needed to deter future invasions by Russia. *He views normalising relations as "normalising invading other countries" and finds the US shift "not acceptable". *He highlights Tim White's strong reaction, calling the Riyadh talks a "shocking stitch up" and posting an image suggesting "MAGA Moscow agents governing America". *He expresses anger that peace talks about Ukraine are occurring without Ukrainian or European presence, only with US, Russian, and Saudi Arabian flags visible. *He names US and Russian officials involved in the Riyadh meeting, condemning the exclusion of Ukraine.
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EU-Ukraine Meeting and Potential EU Aid Package
🎦 25:37-27:24⏩
*While the US-Russia meeting in Riyadh occurs, the EU is meeting with Ukraine. *Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister is in Poland at the EU General Affairs Council. *Ola Stefanichnya believes a deal with the US on valuable minerals will be signed but is not yet agreed. *Anton Gerashenko reports that the EU will announce a massive military aid package for Ukraine, possibly €700 billion, next week. *German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock described it as "the largest package that has never been seen on this scale before", calling it a "financial package for security in Europe". *Benjamin Talley expresses scepticism about the €700 billion figure but acknowledges a significant package is expected, potentially including support for Ukrainian and EU defence industries, and EU member state resilience. *The EU package is seen as a potential counter to perceived US abandonment of Ukraine, offering Europe a chance to assert its independence and support for Ukraine.
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Russian Demands at Riyadh Meeting and Concerns of US Appeasement
🎦 27:24-29:46⏩
*Jay in Kyiv describes the Riyadh talks as a "three-hour humiliation session" where Russia laid the groundwork to get "everything Putin wants". *Russian demands are described as "horrific" and potentially agreeable to the US. *A key Russian demand is the exclusion of the EU from upcoming negotiations on Ukraine. *Russia also demands the EU stop armed supplies to Kyiv. *Jonathan warns that if the US agrees to these demands, it would signify the end of US assistance to Ukraine and effectively the US "siding with Russia" and becoming an "adversary". *He acknowledges the perplexity and upset of many American viewers regarding the perceived shift in US policy. *He reiterates that discussions about Ukraine without Ukraine are "unacceptable" and condemns the Riyadh situation.
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Wrap up
🎦 29:46-30:38⏩
*Jonathan anticipates ongoing discussion about the Riyadh meeting. *He thanks viewers for kind comments and acknowledges the hard work he puts into his videos daily, at the expense of his personal life. *He specifically thanks Pierre for "meaningful, beautiful comments" and recognises the valuable work of humanitarian workers in Ukraine, including Pierre, contrasting their direct action with his own role as a commentator. *He closes by saying "Take care, guys, and I'll speak to you soon."
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