Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Holodomor, Russia's Cyber War, Uzbek Trains, & Zelenskyy
Table of Contents 📖
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"The true heroes, obviously, as they should be, were the people putting their lives on the line on a daily basis - the soldiers who liberated Kherson in that counter-offensive. And they were the ones who were getting the local plaudits."
Hello Team!
Jonathan reflects on the fascinating topics he has compiled for this extra update video. He wonders if viewers will get bored of the amount of content he produces daily on the Ukraine war but concludes the topics are too interesting not to cover.
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Holodomor and parallels to Russia's actions in Ukraine
- Jonathan discusses a speech by Polish MEP Radoslav Sikorski comparing Russia's current actions in Ukraine to the Holodomor in the 1930s.
- The Holodomor was a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932-33, caused by Stalin's agricultural collectivization policies. It killed an estimated 3.9 million in Ukraine.
- Accompanied by a broader assault on Ukrainian identity and intelligentsia to extinguish Ukraine as a separate nation, culture and identity from Russia.
- Jonathan sees parallels in Russia's current attempts to "Russify" Ukraine and extinguish its sovereignty and identity.
- Holodomor was covered up by Soviets at the time. Some Western journalists like Walter Duranty of the New York Times dismissed reports of the famine.
- In recent years, more countries are recognizing the Holodomor as a genocide against Ukrainians by Stalin's regime.
Russian tanks arriving in Belarus and speculation on plans
Around 30 T-80 tanks have arrived in Belarus. Jonathan speculates on whether this is just for training or potential plans for an attack on Ukraine from the north. However, he notes Ukraine has built up strong defences on the Belarus border which would slow any advance. It may be a tactic to force Ukraine to keep some troops in the north rather than deploying them all to the Melitopol area.
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Fires and explosions in Russia
Two more incidents in Russia - an explosion at a gas pipeline in Chuvashia in eastern Russia, and a fire near the Ukrainian border by Kharkiv. The latter may be sabotage. Jonathan questions at what point the economic damage from these frequent incidents will force Russia to reconsider its invasion, though the "sunk cost fallacy" makes this unlikely.
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Russia potentially running low on ammunition
Reports suggest Russia may be facing ammunition shortages, with the UK, US and Estonia giving differing estimates of how long supplies will last. Russia appears to be using ammunition that was due to be delivered to other countries and recently manufactured missiles, suggesting limited stocks. Jonathan speculates Russian military planners must be factoring this into their plans.
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Uzbekistan sends train to Europe bypassing Russia
For the first time, Uzbekistan has sent a freight train to Europe via a route bypassing Russia, likely through Turkey. While the economic rationale is unclear, Jonathan suggests it may be a sign of Uzbekistan and other central Asian nations distancing themselves from Russia.
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Report on Russia's cyber operations in Ukraine
A report by the Carnegie Endowment assesses that Russia's cyber attacks have inflicted limited damage on Ukraine. Key findings:
- Russian cyber forces are too small to meaningfully contribute to a full-scale war
- Ukraine's digital infrastructure has proven resilient with help from Western cloud/cybersecurity providers
- Starlink has bolstered telecommunications
- Weaknesses in Russia's institutions and cyber doctrine have limited effectiveness
- Overall, cyber has been less impactful than expected in the war
Zelensky visits Bakhmut as Putin stays in Moscow
Zelensky made a risky frontline visit to Bakhmut to meet with soldiers and boost morale. In contrast, Putin remains in Moscow making dubious claims about the war. Jonathan highlights the huge gap in leadership styles and the inspiration Zelensky provides, both internationally and domestically. However, he notes insight from journalist Roland Oliphant that on Zelensky's earlier visit to Kherson, the liberating Ukrainian soldiers were the true local heroes to residents, not Zelensky, showing their immense importance.
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and comments. He acknowledges he has little spare time but appreciates everyone's help. He also plugs a book compiling Zelensky's speeches which are apparently all inspirational and well-written.
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