Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"Jam, then assault."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:19⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Frontline Update video for 9th March 2024. It is a quick update as there have been few changes and he has already produced a lot of content. Jonathan thanks JR for the map updates who reports that according to Syriac Maps, there have been 2.06 square kilometres of Russian gains and according to Andrew Perpetua 5.57 square kilometres.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Front Line Update

🎦 00:19-01:24⏩

Jonathan reports no changes according to Andrew Perpetua's maps for the Northeastern sector covering Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna. There are no changes reported on Deep State Maps other than the yellow line. Jonathan notes some movement into the north of Sinkivka with the pro-Russian mapper, Syriac maps showing that Russians have moved into the north of the settlement. Jonathan cautions that Syriac Maps tend to interpret the presence of Russian troops as being in control, which is not necessarily the case and may overestimate any gains. He also notes that there are no other reported changes along the Siversk frontline to Bakhmut which is good news as this area has been more stable recently.

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Bakhmut Front Line Update

🎦 01:24-02:36⏩

Jonathan reports that the area around Nivske is causing concern with Russian forces moving through the area. Jonathan speaks to Greg Terry, who is in Ukraine, about the situation and reports that Greg believes that Chasiv Yar will eventually fall to the Russians. Jonathan shares his opinion that the Russians may not have as many tanks as is widely believed. He says he could show lots more footage of Russian vehicles and columns being destroyed and that Russian losses reported by Andrew Perpetua are "absolutely staggering." Jonathan does not believe that the Russians can continue to sustain these levels of losses without making significant sacrifices like those already seen in Avdiivka. Jonathan explains that there have been several days of stasis in the area which is good news, but despite this there have been significant Russian gains.

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Donetsk Front Line Update

🎦 02:36-05:01⏩

Jonathan points out some significant gains reported by Andrew Perpetua, which account for the 5.5 square kilometres of gains. He goes on to say this might be him catching up with other maps, and may not necessarily reflect gains from the last 24 hours. Syriac Maps and Deep State Maps are showing these as new gains compared to yesterday. Syriac Maps is now showing Tonenky fully under Russian control, although Deep State Maps and Andrew Perpetua are not showing this yet. Jonathan notes that Serebryani is making a bold claim by reporting this. Jonathan explains that he expects the Ukrainians to make a stand and defend the line along the river that runs from Berdychi past Semenivka, Olivka and down to Umanske as the river will be difficult to cross at this point and any bridging attempts will be risky for the Russians. He thinks the Ukrainians will give up land until this point but no further. Jonathan believes that the Russians are concentrating their efforts in the Marinka, Novomykolaivka and Krasnohorivka directions rather than the area around Tonenky. He believes that this is a more strategically important area for them to take.

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Analysis of Russian Offensive

🎦 05:01-05:34⏩

Jonathan is surprised that there has been so little movement and such small losses for the Ukrainians, given that this is supposed to be a major Russian offensive. He questions how much is left in the tank for the Russians and casts doubt on the claims that 40,000 troops are positioned in the north, questioning if they are combat ready.

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Ukrainian Successes and Russian Losses

🎦 05:34-06:24⏩

Jonathan cites a report that there has been very little change in the frontline with Ukrainians halting Russian advances around Avdiivka and repelling attacks near Sinkivka, the areas where the Russians have made small gains. Jonathan notes that there is lots of visual evidence to confirm high Russian equipment losses but this will not stop their offensive, but suggests that they will look back and wonder if the losses were worth it given the minimal gains made.

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Russian Electronic Warfare

🎦 06:24-06:48⏩

Jonathan reports that Astraia Intel reported on 8th March that an unidentified but sophisticated electronic warfare system had been deployed by the Russians in Robotyne, Zaporizhia Oblast, which has been disrupting first person drone missions but that this is not a major concern.

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Ukrainian Operations near Antonivsky Bridge

🎦 06:48-10:56⏩

Jonathan reports that David Axe writing for Forbes says that Ukrainian marines jammed Russian drones in order to cross the Dnipro River near the Antonivsky bridge and into Dachi, describing this as another thorn in the side of the Russians. He goes on to report that a rare Russian guided missile was used in response by the Russians. Jonathan clarifies the location of Dachi, pointing out that it is on the West bank of the Dnipro, an area supposedly under Ukrainian control. Jonathan reports that, according to the Ukrainian Centre for Defence Strategies, Ukrainian marines are holding positions in summer houses in Dachi and that they were able to cross the river by jamming Russian drones. The Russians responded with a helicopter launched LMUR missile. Jonathan explains that the Ukrainians cannot jam Russian drones constantly as this would interfere with their own operations. He suggests that the jamming is coordinated with troop movements to create temporary drone dead zones which are exploited to move forces. Jonathan uses the example of how the Ukrainians used a Bukavale radio jammer to jam Russian drones allowing them to cross the Dnipro into Kherson in October. The Bukavale is a 50km range jammer and was positioned in a concrete structure under the destroyed Antonivsky bridge, making it difficult to target. The Russians were forced to deploy a helicopter equipped with a 230,000 USD Ilyushin 305 guided missile to take it out. Jonathan is unsure whether the Ukrainians will be able to hold onto Dachi as there have been other raids in the area which haven't resulted in an enduring Ukrainian presence. He notes that the marines in Dachi are already under pressure and that last week, Russian rockets struck Dachi, ostensibly targeting Ukrainian marines. Jonathan is surprised as he was under the impression that this area was already under firm Ukrainian control and that the situation is fairly fluid, with the Ukrainians potentially suffering losses and returning to the other side of the river. He notes that it is too dangerous for the Russians to retake the area due to the terrain and they would be vulnerable to drone attacks. He concludes that the situation appears fluid, with the Ukrainians not necessarily maintaining a constant presence in the area, but using a combination of electronic warfare and troop movements to disrupt Russian operations near the bridge. Jonathan compares this to the situation in Pid Stepne, which was recently changed on Syriac Maps from a grey zone to Russian controlled and he wonders if this is an area where forces are probing but not necessarily holding territory.

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Wrap up

🎦 10:56-11:27⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.

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