Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Military Aid News
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Table of Contents 📖
"When you dismiss Russian disinformation as irrelevant or inconsequential remember thousands of Ukrainians died last year because Russian disinformation enveloped the US Republican Party to the point that they blocked Ukraine's funding for six months, a rug pull during the counter-offensive and a tragedy that allowed Russians to make huge gains that are still ongoing."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:07⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video.
- He explains that this is the second part of the Ukraine War News Update for 5th September 2024.
- He mentions a separate breaking news explainer video on Russian disinformation reaching the US.
- He apologises that it is a day with a large amount of content.
- Jonathan suggests viewers use the playback speed option if they are short on time. He listens to content at 1.75x speed.
US restrictions on Ukrainian use of Western weapons
🎦 01:07-04:39⏩
- Jonathan discusses comments from John Kirby, National Security Advisor, and shares his opinion that Kirby seems constrained by the administration.
- Kirby stated that the US is working to strengthen Ukraine's air defence and the position remains unwavering on strikes deep into Russian territory.
- Jonathan expresses frustration with the US restriction that prevents Ukrainian use of Western weapons deep into Russia. He feels it is counterproductive and likely a result of bad faith.
- Jonathan shares comments from Ukraine Battle Map and viewers, such as Edward Hunter Christie, John Ridge and Razan, who argue against the 300km restriction for a variety of reasons, including the existence of other valuable targets beyond aircraft.
- John Kirby also mentioned that the US intends to send a new batch of military aid in the coming weeks.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson calls for ATACMs delivery to Ukraine
🎦 04:44-05:43⏩
- UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called for the immediate delivery of ATACMs to Ukraine.
- There are suggestions that the Ukrainians may have run out of ATACMs or are saving them.
- He also urged the removal of range restrictions and suggested that Ukraine be allowed to target and destroy the Kerch Bridge.
- This has prompted speculation that the Ukrainians may be under pressure from other nations not to attack the Kerch Bridge.
- Jonathan expresses doubt about the Ukrainians possessing the capability to destroy the bridge at this time.
US Military Aid to Ukraine - Reduced levels
🎦 05:46-08:32⏩
- Ukraine Battle Map reported that the US is providing $250 million in military aid every month, which is the lowest level since the start of the war.
- Jonathan states that the aid level is too low and suggests that this could be a factor in Ukraine's losses.
- He highlights that the last time the US sent a Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package worth $250 million was over 3 months ago, with all subsequent packages being $200 million or less.
- He contrasts this with 2022 and 2023, when PDA packages were usually over $400 million, sometimes over $1 billion, and even reached $5.35 billion in a two-week period.
- Jonathan expresses the opinion that it may be due to the upcoming US election and the potential negative optics of large aid packages.
- He explains that the perception of the book value of military aid could mislead voters, when in reality, much of the equipment is surplus stock and effectively free.
- He concludes that the current administration may be trying to avoid upsetting the public on election-related spending.
Malcontent News - Claims on US Military Aid
🎦 08:32-10:33⏩
- Jonathan discusses a report from Malcontent News, which makes several claims about the state of military aid and US policy towards Ukraine.
- Jonathan notes that some of these claims may be disputed.
- Malcontent News claims that $6.8 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority will expire at the end of September if not allocated.
- They also claim Romania has not received its promised Patriot battery, there have been no large Canadian ammunition shipments since June, and no major attacks or strikes in a month.
- They also claim that Poland and Romania are being blocked from defending their own airspace, the UK and France are blocked from making decisions on Storm Shadow and Scalp EG missiles, and the US Air Force's promise to provide F-16 sustainment has been broken.
- Further claims include only six F-16 pilots trained, no FY2025 budget request for Ukraine, no movement on G7 funds from Russian assets, unenforced sanctions, and the State Department hoping to normalise relations with Putin.
- Jonathan acknowledges that some claims have been denied.
- He highlights several of the claims which he states are true, such as Russia receiving support from Iran and North Korea, attacks launched from Belarus with impunity, and violations of NATO airspace.
- Jonathan confirms that events such as the destruction of infrastructure, assassinations, and jamming of GPS signals have taken place.
- He says this paints a negative picture, suggesting the US is not doing enough.
Malcontent News - Continued Claims
🎦 10:34-11:38⏩
- Jonathan continues to discuss the claims made by Malcontent News, focusing on the implications of the US's actions.
- The claims include Russian-backed Polish protests crippling Ukrainian commerce, Russian-weaponized immigration, Washington's actions contributing to nuclear proliferation, and Russia restarting its chemical weapons program.
- Jonathan summarises the report as being very anti-US, suggesting that the lack of action from the US could lead to future problems, including Russia's continued advance.
- He advises viewers to treat some of the claims with caution.
US Election and Possible Impact on Ukraine
🎦 11:43-12:28⏩
- Jonathan turns to the upcoming US elections and their potential effect on Ukraine.
- If Donald Trump were to win, the outlook for Ukraine could be negative, suggesting he may be less supportive.
- If Kamala Harris were to win, there is some uncertainty regarding the US's continued support.
- He expresses his opinion that the current administration's anti-escalation ideology is too strong and is not sufficient to support Ukraine.
Senator Mark Kelly - Shift in US Policy on Weaponry Usage
🎦 12:28-16:38⏩
- Jonathan highlights Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona, who was a contender for Vice President.
- He discusses Kelly's background, including his experience in the Navy and as an astronaut, and his potential involvement in future Ukraine policy.
- Kelly expressed comfort with US weapons being used on Russian soil in an interview with Margaret.
- Jonathan mentions Doug Klain, and that Kelly's stance represents a notable shift from his previous position, which was more cautious about lifting restrictions.
- He discusses Kelly's justification for this change, including the illegal invasion of Ukraine and the suffering caused by Putin.
- He also highlights that Ukraine likely does not want to hold Russian territory indefinitely but that the resistance has set Putin back.
- Jonathan interprets Kelly's position as potentially indicative of the direction Kamala Harris's administration might take.
- He also mentions that a group of former officials, including General Breedlove, wrote to Biden urging the lifting of restrictions.
- Jonathan summarises Kamala Harris's stance as being more open to reevaluating weapons restrictions, which he believes is a positive sign.
Ramstein Meeting - Zelensky's Visit to Germany
🎦 16:38-17:21⏩
- According to Der Spiegel, Zelensky will attend the Ramstein meeting in Germany.
- He intends to appeal for continued weapons supplies from Western partners.
- The meeting will include 50 allies discussing support for Ukraine.
Ukraine Defence Minister Calls for Accelerated Weapons Delivery
🎦 17:21-17:47⏩
- Ukraine's Defence Minister Ruslan Oborov has called on allies to speed up weapons deliveries during his visit to the UK.
- His call follows a recent Russian attack in Lviv that resulted in the deaths of seven people.
- Jonathan notes the struggle many countries have faced in delivering pledged equipment to Ukraine on time.
Alexander Komyshyn Resigns as Strategic Industries Minister
🎦 17:47-18:15⏩
- Alexander Komyshyn, the strategic industries minister, has resigned from his position.
- It appears he is taking on an advisory role for Zelensky, though this is not confirmed.
- Jonathan thinks it's important to understand the successes achieved under Komyshyn.
Alexander Komyshyn's Achievements as Strategic Industries Minister
🎦 18:15-22:13⏩
- Jonathan shares Komyshyn's thread detailing the achievements of the Ministry of Strategic Industries during his tenure.
- He states that production tripled in 2023 and doubled again by September 2024.
- Komyshyn lists accomplishments, including increased production of drones, ammunition, armored vehicles, and missile programs.
- Komyshyn explains that they are now capable of rapid production scaling, but are limited by procurement contracts.
- He notes they have launched serial production of mortar and artillery rounds within Ukraine.
- Komyshyn highlights that Ukraine produces more self-propelled artillery systems than any other free-world country, referencing the Bogdana.
- He outlines significant progress in the missile program, mentioning the Neptune missile and potentially missile drones.
- He states that Ukrainian long-range drones strike enemy targets daily.
- He mentions the contract for over 1 million FPV drones and the capability to produce over 3 million.
- He states that there is a 10 billion dollar shortfall in funding, which limits them from producing much more.
- Komyshyn details his focus on securing funding through initiatives like Zabroyary and partnering with international companies (e.g., Rymetal and Northrop Grumman) for licenses and joint technological solutions.
- He describes the first international defense forum, DFNC1, and how it brought together defense industries from 24 countries.
- Komyshyn discusses the transformation of Ukroboronprom, which ranked 49th amongst top defence companies in 2024.
- He thanks various individuals and groups for their support and indicates his intention to continue working towards Ukraine's victory.
- Jonathan believes that Komyshyn's move is not due to poor performance, but potentially a step into a more integral role within Zelensky's team.
Ukraine and Ireland Sign Bilateral Security Agreement
🎦 22:31-22:59⏩
- Ukraine and Ireland have signed a bilateral security agreement.
- Ireland will provide an additional $128 million for non-lethal military support to Ukraine.
- They will also provide at least $40 million in humanitarian aid and demining systems and participate in the demining coalition, which includes training Ukrainian soldiers.
UK Signs £300 Million Contract for Artillery Shells
🎦 22:59-23:41⏩
- Jonathan briefly revisits yesterday's news about a £300 million contract signed by the UK.
- He notes that this contract is substantial and mentions Zelensky's statement regarding improved artillery ammunition usage ratios (from 1:12 to 1:3).
- This improvement in ammunition supply is particularly significant given the seven-month impasse in Congress.
- The contract is expected to deliver thousands of 152mm Soviet-era artillery shells for Ukraine's Soviet-era guns before the end of the year, according to the British MOD.
Ukraine Orders 10,000 AI-Enabled Drones
🎦 23:42-24:02⏩
- Ukraine has ordered the first 10,000 drones with artificial intelligence through Prozorro.
- The Minister of Digital Transformation, Fedorov, expects that the price of these drones will decrease due to competition among manufacturers.
- They hope that AI-enabled drones will be able to overcome enemy electronic warfare systems.
Ukrainian Armor Presents Protector Uncrewed Ground Vehicle
🎦 24:13-24:35⏩
- Kyiv-based company, Ukrainian Armor, has revealed their new Protector uncrewed ground vehicle.
- The logistics drone can be used for reconnaissance, launching UAVs, and potentially equipped with armaments (ATGMs, cannon turrets).
- This is an example of adaptation and evolution in the field of uncrewed vehicles.
Jura Armored Vehicle for Army Tactical Missions
🎦 24:47-26:05⏩
- Jonathan discusses the Jura armored vehicle, a light tactical vehicle developed by Praktika on a Toyota Land Cruiser 70 chassis.
- It features Level 4 armour and a 200 horsepower diesel engine, designed for stealth.
- It's suited for low-risk operations by police and special forces.
- Jonathan shares a personal anecdote about his backpacking trip in Australia in 1996, involving a Land Cruiser 70 and a fuel shortage.
Wild Hornets Drone Production and Testing
🎦 26:05-27:39⏩
- Jonathan discusses component production, drone assembly, and flight testing for the Wild Hornets, a charity/non-profit organization producing drones for the Ukrainian army.
- He mentions the Queen Hornet, a larger drone capable of deploying other drones.
- He states that Wild Hornet drones have been used to carry TM-62 anti-tank mines.
- Jonathan comments on the significance of 3D printing in drone production and other aspects of the war.
- He highlights the speed and ease of drone production, assembly and deployment through 3D printing and how this helps Ukraine to be more responsive to frontline needs.
- Jonathan praises Wild Hornets' efforts in building, testing, and delivering equipment to the frontline while emphasising the importance of feedback loops in the design process.
French City of Nancy Sends Generators to Venetia
🎦 27:39-28:32⏩
- Jonathan mentions that Nancy, a French city, will provide two generators for schools in Venetia.
- He acknowledges the small scale of this aid but underlines that it's part of ongoing town twinning and cooperation projects between France and Ukraine.
- He uses this to highlight that assistance for Ukraine is not solely at the national level, but also from cities and communities.
Germany Orders 17 IRIS-T Air Defence Systems
🎦 28:32-30:18⏩
- Germany has ordered an additional 17 IRIS-T air defence systems for Ukraine.
- Jonathan clarifies that some initial reports were incorrect, and thanks German Aid to Ukraine for clarifying this in a tweet.
- The tweet details the pledged deliveries of both medium-range (SLM) and short-range (SLS) launchers.
- He shares details of the planned deliveries, including a timeline of deliveries in 2024, 2025, and 2026.
Germany Gepard/Cheetah SPAAG Update
🎦 30:31-33:17⏩
- Germany has delivered further Gepard SPAAGs to Ukraine.
- Jonathan explains that up to 10 Gepards will be delivered by the end of 2024 with a further 5 in 2025, as part of a 60-vehicle total.
- He highlights that these are 'Cheetah' variants - upgraded Dutch versions with improved radar and other enhancements.
- Jonathan notes that there has been a delay in delivery of the Cheetahs.
- The Cheetahs arrived in Ukraine much earlier than expected, although neither the US nor Germany confirmed delivery, despite their involvement in procurement.
- He speculates that the recent success rate of intercepting Shahed drones might be due to the greater number of SPAAGs in service than previously thought.
- He clarifies that Germany has delivered 52 Gepards, and possibly an unknown number of Cheetahs.
- He shares information on the ammunition production for the Gepards and how Rheinmetall has set up a new production line for them.
- He mentions that ammunition supply was previously a challenge due to a lack of production lines and that Switzerland blocked some deliveries.
Gepard Ammunition Production & Delivery
🎦 33:17-34:29⏩
- Jonathan continues with the update on Gepard ammunition.
- He states that 300,000 rounds are to be delivered, with around 100,000 APDST rounds already delivered.
- Rheinmetall is behind schedule with the HEIT round production, possibly delaying the overall timeline by up to six months.
- He clarifies that the ammunition now being produced by Rheinmetall for the Gepards is of a better quality than the original.
Germany Punishes Switzerland for Blocking Arms Deliveries
🎦 34:29-35:25⏩
- Germany is punishing Switzerland's defense industry for blocking deliveries of arms to Ukraine.
- German authorities have stated that they will refrain from purchasing certain Swiss armaments in the future.
- Jonathan mentions a previous discussion about the potential consequences of Switzerland's actions on its arms export industry, including the difficulty in selling to other nations.
- He believes that Switzerland's neutrality makes it less desirable as an arms supplier.
Switzerland's Neutrality and Potential Changes
🎦 35:25-36:16⏩
- Jonathan mentions the potential for Switzerland to reconsider its centuries-old neutrality policy, given the current situation.
- He highlights that the Swiss defense industry is suffering as a result of its refusal to assist Ukraine.
- Despite this, he notes that Germany is still providing considerable support to Ukraine.
Germany's Taurus Missile Policy - Schultz's Influence
🎦 35:39-36:10⏩
- Jonathan reports that the Taurus missiles (Germany's version of Scalp/Storm Shadow) will likely not be delivered to Ukraine as long as Olaf Schultz remains in power.
- He suggests that Schultz's actions are proving to be a point of contention.
- He points out that this needs to be weighed against Germany's other significant support to Ukraine.
Serbia Denies Transferring MiG-29s to Ukraine
🎦 36:17-37:20⏩
- Serbian Defence Minister Bratislav Gasić has denied rumours that the contract for 12 Dassault Rafale fighter jets from France includes a clause to transfer Serbian MiG-29s to Ukraine via France.
- Jonathan mentions that this rumour has been debunked by many.
- He believes this is unlikely as France lacks the capability to refurbish the MiG-29s and Serbia may not have many operational MiG-29s.
Poland's Offer to Help Rebuild Lviv
🎦 37:20-37:45⏩
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stated that Poland is ready to assist in rebuilding Lviv following the recent Russian missile strike.
- Jonathan highlights that Lviv's proximity to the Polish border makes it logical for Poland to offer assistance.
- A day of mourning has been declared in Lviv.
Poland's Defence Spending to Reach Record High
🎦 37:45-38:23⏩
- Jonathan notes that Poland's defence spending is projected to reach a record 4.7% of its GDP in 2025.
- This is a significant increase and counters the US criticism that other nations don't contribute enough to defence.
- The NATO 2% GDP benchmark was introduced in 2014, and Trump has advocated increasing it to 3%.
Lithuania and Poland to Jointly Train Ukrainian Soldiers
🎦 38:23-38:45⏩
- Lithuania and Poland are collaborating to train Ukrainian soldiers on a joint platform.
- They plan to use the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian Brigade base in Poland for this training.
Chechnya Forcibly Sends Detained LGBTQ+ Men to War
🎦 38:45-40:58⏩
- The Chechen government is allegedly forcibly conscripting detained homosexual men to fight in Ukraine.
- They are reportedly blackmailing these men into volunteering for military contracts.
- At least seven cases are known, with one death reported.
- The Russian organisation Crisis Group, SKSOS, which supports LGBTQ+ individuals in the North Caucasus, reports that the practice began in September 2022.
- Details are provided about arrests and tactics used to force these individuals into service.
- Jonathan mentions Georgia following Russia's lead with regard to laws about sexuality.
- He notes the homophobic stance of Ramzan Kadyrov's government and that Chechen troops have a poor reputation, even amongst the Russians.
Russian Lancet Drone - New Modification in Use
🎦 40:59-41:36⏩
- Jonathan mentions the new Lancet drone variant, Izdeli 51, which has a range of over 50km.
- He notes it is now confirmed to be in use, with a video showing it being taken out by an FPV drone.
- The soldiers of the 11th Brigade of the National Guard used the FPV drone to take it down.
Consequences of Dismissing Russian Disinformation
🎦 41:36-43:05⏩
- Jonathan discusses the dangers of dismissing Russian disinformation as inconsequential.
- He cites a comment from Jay and Keith, relating the dismissal of disinformation to the deaths of thousands of Ukrainians.
- He refers to the impact of disinformation on US Republicans which resulted in the blocking of funding for Ukraine for six months during the counter-offensive.
- He underlines that Russia spends billions each year on disinformation to influence decision-making in various countries, including the US, Germany, France, and the UK.
- He stresses the importance of holding those accountable who spread misinformation and highlights the impact this has on Ukraine.
- He concludes by stating it is imperative for the US and other nations to take action against Russian disinformation.
Wrap up
🎦 43:05-43:13⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers for watching the video, which was full of military aid updates.
- He states that he's run out of words and needs a cup of tea.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
Everything was understood in the video transcript and the tasks provided.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Okay, let's break down the steps for this task:
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Topic Titles:
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