Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:32⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a late Saturday morning update and wishes everyone a good morning, commenting on the beautiful weather in the UK. Despite this, he reminds viewers that the situation in Ukraine is "carnage" and the weather is irrelevant.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Russian Loss Figures
🎦 00:32-06:15⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for estimated Russian losses for the previous day, noting these figures should be treated with caution.
- Personnel: 1,140 (down from the past two weeks)
- Tanks: 15
- APCs: not given but implied to be higher than tanks
- Artillery Systems: 27 (down but still double the average).
- MLRS: 2
- AA Systems: 1
- Cruise Missiles: 0
- Drones: described as very few but number not given.
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 39 (high but lower than recent figures)
- Special Equipment: 3
Jonathan notes that losses appear to be down but this could be because things have been quieter on the Northern Kharkiv front. He intends to discuss this more later in the video.
Return to top⤴️
Jonathan's reflections on Greg Terry's Friday Night Live Stream
🎦 06:15-09:17⏩
Jonathan discusses the previous night's appearance on Greg Terry's live stream. He explains that Greg (and Jenya) are feeling down. This is understandable as they are in Ukraine and are exposed to the realities of the war, speaking to those fighting on the front lines. Jonathan reflects that whilst we know how tough the Ukrainians are finding the situation, we know less about the perspective of the Russians. Are their experiences even worse? Jonathan believes that Zelenskyy is coming under increasing pressure from within Ukraine as the war is now into its third year with no end in sight. The population are becoming tired and frustrated. For example, citizens are irritated by receiving fines for minor offences such as speeding, feeling that the police should be fighting. Jonathan compares this situation to the arguments surrounding the timing of elections, highlighting that running a country at war is very different to campaigning in an election. Jonathan believes that Zelenskyy is doing the right thing by travelling the world and securing aid for Ukraine. This means that others less experienced are left running the country. However, Jonathan hypothesises that this will lead to growing unease amongst the Ukrainian population, playing directly into Putin's strategy of attrition - wearing down the Ukrainians until they are too exhausted to continue.
Return to top⤴️
Oryx/Andrew Perpetua's Loss Figures
🎦 09:17-15:16⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest visually-confirmed loss figures from Oryx, curated by Andrew Perpetua, drawing attention to the information this provides on the bigger picture in Ukraine. He explains that Andrew had considered not publishing data for a few days as he is exhausted and needs help. However, he published for the second day in a row. Jonathan clarifies that Andrew still intends to collect the data but there may be reasons why he doesn't want to publicise it at present. Yesterday's Losses (24/05/2024): Jonathan reminds viewers of the high value of equipment lost by the Russians the previous day, particularly the S-400 battery, an upgraded radar system and a plane, dwarfed the value of equipment lost by the Ukrainians. Today's Losses (25/05/2024): Jonathan notes the significance of losses on both sides and the asymmetry in their impact:
- Ukrainian: Whilst still high value, losses were mainly standard equipment including an excavator, Howitzers, SPGs, one tank and three Bradley IFVs. This is significant because it suggests that Bradleys are now being used more extensively by the Ukrainians. The damaged rather than destroyed artillery pieces offer hope that these can be repaired and returned to the fight.
- Russian: Losses were significant: one Su-27, one Osa, an S-10, a significant amount of electronic warfare equipment, a lot of engineering and recovery vehicles, some artillery and a significant number of tanks, IFVs and APCs, trucks, ATVs and civilian vehicles.
Jonathan highlights the loss of six T-90 tanks in a single day. This is Russia's most advanced tank, making this a significant loss. Analysis: Jonathan concludes that the Ukrainians are inflicting heavy losses on the Russians. He returns to his point that whilst individual soldiers on the front line may only be aware of what is happening in their immediate vicinity, the bigger picture is that the Ukrainians are inflicting very heavy losses on the Russians, which will have a long-term strategic impact as long as the West continues to provide the equipment that makes this possible. In particular, Jonathan stresses the need for the West to allow Ukraine to strike Russia within its borders, degrading their logistics and ability to fight. He believes that, strategically, this puts Ukraine in a strong position despite the hardships on the front line. Jonathan observes that the losses published on Oryx back up the figures published by the Ukrainian General Staff.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Losses - The Bigger Picture
🎦 15:16-21:26⏩
Jonathan explores the idea of Russian losses in more detail in light of recent claims that over 500,000 Russians have been killed, injured, captured, or have deserted. He reminds viewers that this figure should be treated with caution as it includes those who are injured and may return to the fight, and equipment that has been damaged and can be repaired.
- UK Defence Journal Estimate: A recent report estimates that 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed, injured, captured or have deserted during the war, and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles have been destroyed.
- Ratio of Destroyed:Damaged: Jonathan observes that the ratio of equipment destroyed to equipment damaged varies but can be as high as 50%.
- Ukrainian General Staff Figures: Jonathan believes that the UK Defence Journal's figures broadly align with those published by the Ukrainian General Staff, giving them more credibility.
- Russian Offensive Capabilities and Recruitment: Viewers should consider how Russia can launch offensives of 30-50,000 troops if losses are as high as suggested. Jonathan believes that the estimated loss figures do align with Russian offensive actions if their average daily losses are lower than 1,000 (for example, in the 300-600 range), and if they are able to recruit at a rate that keeps pace with their losses.
- Financial Times Report: This was echoed in a recent Financial Times article where Oleksandr Danylyuk, Ukraine's chief of national security and defence council, estimated that Russia recruited over 385,000 soldiers in 2023. Even if daily losses are 1,000, this could still equate to a net gain for Russia, especially if they are able to coerce those who have been injured to return to the fight.
- Russian Troop Deployments: Danylyuk also suggested that Russia had recently deployed around 50,000 troops to the Belgorod region (bordering Kharkiv). This would appear to support the idea that Russia is seeking to create a buffer zone to protect Belgorod from Ukrainian attacks, and may be preparing for a renewed offensive on Kharkiv in the future.
Jonathan concludes that, taken together, the various data points suggest that the Ukrainian General Staff's estimated figures for Russian losses are broadly accurate.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Interview with Chinese Mercenary Fighting for Russia
🎦 22:19-25:22⏩
Jonathan recommends a video entitled _"The Russians gives a reality check on the Russian-Ukrainian war"_, which is an interview with a former PLA (People's Liberation Army) soldier now fighting as a mercenary for Russia. The video is significant as it provides several data points that support Jonathan's analysis. The mercenary, who is Chinese, makes a number of claims:
- He reveals that he fights alongside a large number of foreign fighters and lists a number of nationalities including Cubans, Indians and Nepalese. This supports the idea that Russia is substituting its own troops with mercenaries. He estimates that around 50% of his unit are foreign fighters.
- He describes the constant threat from Ukrainian drones, describing them as being "everywhere" and that they are constantly being attacked by mortars, drones, rifles and grenades.
- He states that most of his unit had been killed or injured.
- He comments that there are dead bodies everywhere, with the smell of rotten flesh, a situation confirmed in numerous videos Jonathan has seen.
Jonathan concludes that this is a very information-rich video that supports the data he has been discussing in the previous topics. The losses on both sides are bad but Russia is mitigating their losses through the use of foreign mercenaries. Jonathan encourages everyone to watch the video.
Return to top⤴️
Sumy, Bradley IFVs and Russian Ships Departing Crimea
🎦 25:22-28:14⏩
Jonathan covers several smaller news items:
- Sumy: Three Russians crossed the border into Sumy and surrendered. This is interesting as there have been no reports of active fighting in that region, suggesting their morale is low.
- Bradley IFVs: Jonathan discusses the effectiveness of the US Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles supplied to Ukraine, citing a video he had seen where a Bradley had been badly damaged but the crew survived thanks to a second Bradley which evacuated them.
- Russian Ships Departing Crimea: Following the destruction of the Russian Navy's Cyclone missile ship, a number of ships have been observed departing Crimea, suggesting that they no longer believe it is safe. Jonathan believes that this is part of the snowball effect that will see Crimea become increasingly vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks as their capabilities increase.
Atesh Partisans Target Russian Logistics, Overnight Attacks and Explosions in Crimea
🎦 28:14-30:48⏩
Jonathan reports on a number of overnight attacks and explosions, once again highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on Russian logistics:
- Atesh Partisans: The Atesh partisan group operating in occupied Ukraine claim to have attacked relay cabinets in Yaroslavl, an important military logistics hub. This is significant because it disrupts the railway network supplying Russian forces.
- Kharkiv: Overnight, Kharkiv was hit by four S-300 and Iskander-M missiles.
- Zaporizhzhia: The Zaporizhzhia Oblast was attacked 340 times by the Russians using a combination of airstrikes, drones, MLRS and artillery.
- Explosions in Crimea: A number of explosions were felt in Crimea, with smoke seen rising near to Novofedorivka, south of Yevpatoria. It was initially thought that the Saki air base was the target but analysis of geolocated footage suggests that a hotel complex was hit. Jonathan explains that this is significant because Russia has repurposed a number of hotels as military headquarters.
- Drone attacks on Russia: Russia claims to have shot down two drones over Belgorod and one over Kursk.
Analysis of Recent Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Early Warning Radar Systems
🎦 30:48-37:05⏩
Jonathan analyses a number of Ukrainian attacks on Russian Early Warning Radar Systems, highlighting their significance:
- Donetsk: Jonathan refers back to the recent Ukrainian ATACMS strike on a Russian S-400 battery in Donetsk. He points out that this was located at the start of the new railway line running from Rostov-on-Don to Mariupol, suggesting that it was tasked with protecting it. This leaves the railway line vulnerable to Ukrainian attack, impacting Russian logistics.
- Armavir: Jonathan discusses the recent attack on the Armavir military unit 4003, specifically the Voronezh DM radar station. Located in Krasnodar, this radar station provides early warning of missile and aircraft activity to the south and southwest of Russia, covering an area from North Africa in the west to Southern Europe in the east. Analysis of satellite imagery confirms the attack and shows damage to the facility.
- Significance of the attack: This has caused considerable discussion as this radar station is believed to be a key part of Russia's nuclear early warning system, potentially impacting their ability to detect incoming nuclear missiles. This has led to accusations that Ukraine is escalating the situation. However, analysts have countered that the radar is also capable of detecting shorter range missiles such as ATACMS, which Ukraine is now using.
- Jonathan's Perspective: Jonathan believes this is a highly significant development. He argues that if the Ukrainians can disable this facility with a small number of relatively unsophisticated drones, it calls into question the effectiveness of Russia's nuclear deterrent and their ability to detect and defend against a nuclear attack. This will be of great interest to NATO and the US. Jonathan does concede that there may be diplomatic repercussions for Ukraine as a result of this attack.
- Russian Response: Russia has reacted angrily to the attack, with some commentators suggesting that attacks on such facilities in the UK or US would be considered reckless in the extreme. Others have claimed that Russia has done more damage to its own early warning systems than Ukraine ever could.
Jonathan refers to a radar array left full of holes following an incident in May 2023, suggesting that Russia's claims may have some merit. However, he concludes that Ukraine's recent attack on the Voronezh DM radar system is highly significant and will have a number of repercussions.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Counterattacks in Kharkiv Oblast and War Crimes
🎦 37:05-38:48⏩
Jonathan reports on the latest situation in Kharkiv Oblast.
- Counterattacks: Ukraine has announced that it is planning to counterattack Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast, where they have been making gains. There are suggestions that Ukrainian forces are already pushing the Russians back, inflicting heavy casualties in the process. Zelenskyy has claimed that Ukrainian forces have inflicted casualties at a rate of eight Russians to every one Ukrainian.
- Combat Control of Border Area: Zelenskyy has also reported that Ukrainian forces have re-established combat control of the border area in Kharkiv Oblast.
- Vovchansk War Crimes: Jonathan reminds viewers of the atrocities committed by the Russians during their occupation of Ukrainian territory, citing the example of a disabled woman shot dead in her wheelchair by Russian troops in Vovchansk. He reiterates his hope that the perpetrators of such crimes will be brought to justice.
Wrap Up
🎦 38:48-40:56⏩
As Jonathan concludes his update, he reflects on the points he has raised, particularly the question of whether he is being too optimistic:
- Jonathan's Optimism: He believes that his overall optimism for Ukraine's long-term chances is justified if military aid from the West remains consistent, and Ukraine is permitted to strike targets within Russia.
- "Leisurely" Western Support: Jonathan refers to a point made in a previous video where he argued that the West is being "leisurely" in its support for Ukraine, whilst Russia has fully committed to the war. However, despite the relatively low level of support, Ukraine is still inflicting heavy losses on the Russians. If the West were to fully commit to supporting Ukraine, Jonathan believes that victory could be swift. However, he recognises that this is frustrating for Ukraine, which is fighting for its existence.
- Russia's Options are Limited: Jonathan concludes that Russia's options are now limited unless China formally joins the war on their side. To have any hope of victory, they would need to commit at least 500,000 troops which would require full national mobilisation. This would be extremely challenging. Jonathan believes that the key to Ukrainian victory is their ability to strike targets within Russia itself. He urges Western governments to ignore Russia's "red lines" and provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to win.
"If the Ukrainians, with a couple of crappy drones, can take out Russia's ability to spot nuclear missiles that easily, then if it did come to a nuclear war I'm fairly sure Russia would be absolutely hammered straight off the bat".
