Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia is losing one soldier for every five Ukrainian soldiers."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:05⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another update. He mentions meeting Dell, who compiles the daily Russian equipment loss statistics, for a pint the previous night. Dell couldn't join the update as he attended the D-Day commemorations in Portsmouth. Jonathan reflects on the sacrifices made during D-Day and draws parallels to the ongoing war in Ukraine. He acknowledges the human cost of conflict and emphasises that any Ukrainian military success will come at a heavy price. He also teases an upcoming video discussing his nuanced views on Ukraine's chances of prevailing in the war.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Drone Display and Military Applications
🎦 01:05-04:44⏩
Jonathan discusses a drone display he witnessed, featuring a drone replica of a Spitfire and a WWI soldier. He marvels at the technology's capability and ponders its military applications, particularly swarm drones. He differentiates between a true drone swarm, where multiple autonomous drones act as a collective, and the media's frequent mischaracterisation of multiple individually controlled drones as a "swarm." He acknowledges the growing role of AI in drone warfare, both for targeting individual drones and potentially for coordinating swarm attacks.
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Ukrainian General Staff Figures & Dell Stats
🎦 04:44-09:28⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses from the previous day, noting high personnel casualties (1,300) and significant losses of tanks (22), armoured vehicles (40), and artillery systems (48). He references Dell's detailed spreadsheet to highlight the consistently high Russian losses over the past month. He explains the discrepancy often observed between claimed artillery losses and those visually confirmed in open-source intelligence, attributing it to factors like counter-battery fire often occurring outside the range of drone activity and the focus of satellite imagery analysis on frontline areas rather than areas further back where counter-battery fire might take place.
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Drone Attack in Chornomorska Port
🎦 09:28-11:57⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of a Ukrainian drone attack in the Crimean port of Chornomorska. He points out the presence of a protective boom, likely erected by the Russians to deter drone attacks, and speculates about Ukrainian attempts to sabotage it. He notes that while the drones successfully struck a tugboat, it wasn't a high-value naval target. He sees this attack as a testament to the effectiveness of Ukraine's maritime drone warfare but acknowledges the Russians will likely adapt and strengthen their defences.
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Putin's Claims on Ukrainian Casualties and POWs
🎦 11:57-14:55⏩
Jonathan discusses Putin's recent statements to journalists, cautioning viewers to take the information with a significant degree of scepticism. He dissects Putin's claims:
- Ukrainian Army Casualties: Putin alleges the Ukrainian army suffers 50,000 casualties monthly, a figure Jonathan finds dubious.
- Prisoners of War: Putin states there are 1,348 Russian soldiers and 6,465 Ukrainian soldiers in captivity. While Jonathan can't confirm the accuracy, he highlights that Ukraine has opened a third POW camp due to the high number of captured Russians. He also points out that Russia's figures are unreliable as they often misclassify Ukrainian civilians as POWs.
- Loss Ratio: Putin's assertion that Russia loses one soldier for every five Ukrainians lost, implying a Russian casualty figure of 10,000 per month, strikes Jonathan as a significant admission, even if likely an underestimation.
Jonathan concludes that while Putin attempts to downplay Russian losses and inflate Ukrainian ones, his statements inadvertently reveal the significant cost Russia is incurring in the war.
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Russian Equipment Losses & Ukrainian Counter Attacks
🎦 14:55-16:26⏩
Jonathan briefly covers:
- Putin’s denial of initiating the war ("We did not attack Ukraine").
- Reports of at least 30 Russian journalists killed while reporting from the conflict zone.
- Continued evidence of significant Russian equipment losses, highlighting imagery of destroyed vehicles along a road in Kharkiv, further corroborated by the high casualty figures.
Ukrainian Destruction of Russian Military Assets
🎦 16:26-16:54⏩
Jonathan reports on Ukrainian successes:
- The confirmed destruction of two Russian Pantsir air defence systems.
- The destruction of a Russian command centre and a drone control centre.
- He credits this information to the Speaker of the Defence Forces of the South, Plotenshuk.
Analysis of Tank Warfare Footage
🎦 16:54-19:07⏩
Jonathan analyzes footage of Russian tank movements, highlighting their continued tactical blunders:
- He points out the repeated pattern of tanks getting destroyed by mines while attempting to bypass previously destroyed vehicles, creating a bottleneck and increasing vulnerability.
- He criticizes the practice of transporting troops on tanks, a role better suited for infantry fighting vehicles, as it leads to unnecessary casualties when a tank is hit.
- He cites a Russian source acknowledging the incident, stating that a lead tank was disabled by a mine, disrupting the attack and forcing the assault group to retreat.
Russian Account of Ukrainian Drone Warfare
🎦 19:07-21:06⏩
Jonathan cites a report from Russian milblogger Dmitry Rogozin, who expresses concern about the high volume of Ukrainian drones operating in the Zaporizhzhia region. Rogozin describes encountering "a whole swarm" of both reconnaissance and "heavy bomber" drones. Jonathan notes that while the term "swarm" might be an exaggeration, the account underscores the significant drone activity in the area. He quotes Rogozin directly: "Night Sky on the banks of the Dnipro. I counted 11 reconnaissance drones of the Ukrainian armed forces flying overhead. These are more mobile wings. These are also drone-type UAVs, so drone-type drones, probably Mavics. But then unmanned bombers came out. They go in squadrons, look for our artillery and rotation of personnel conduct remote mining of frontline roads." Rogozin's account also confirms Ukrainian use of drones for remote mining, explaining how lines of mines are placed strategically to hinder Russian movements.
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Lancet Drone Attack on Ukrainian Su-25
🎦 21:06-23:21⏩
Jonathan dissects footage of a Russian Lancet drone attack targeting what appears to be a Ukrainian Su-25 aircraft at the Dolgin Savo airbase. He doubts the aircraft is operational and speculates that it might be a decoy, stripped for parts or deliberately left as a trap. He points out that the Lancet misses its target, possibly due to electronic warfare, operator error, or the inherent difficulty of controlling the drone. He notes that while Lancets missing their targets isn't unusual, the incident raises questions about the effectiveness of Russian drone warfare and the possibility of Ukrainian electronic countermeasures.
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Russian Deployment of Air Force Cadets in Kharkiv
🎦 23:21-25:27⏩
Jonathan analyses a report from a Russian source confirming the deployment of cadets from the Russian Air Force Academy to the front lines in the Kharkiv region. He sees this as a sign of desperation and a potential operational disaster for Russia, indicating a lack of trained manpower. He highlights the potential inexperience of these cadets and the risks they face in active combat. He contrasts this with Ukrainian troop movements, noting that while Ukraine also faces challenges, their counter-attacks in Kharkiv appear to be gaining ground and possibly pushing back Russian forces.
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Ukrainian Air Defence Success & Russian Strikes
🎦 25:27-29:30⏩
Jonathan covers recent events:
- Drone Interception: Ukraine claims to have shot down 17 out of 18 Iranian-made Shahed drones launched by Russia. Jonathan praises this success rate, attributing it to increasingly effective Ukrainian air defence systems, including newly arrived Gepard anti-aircraft guns and potentially networked radar coverage.
- Epicenter Hypermarket Strike: Russia targeted another Epicenter megastore, this time in Kherson, mirroring a previous attack on a similar store in Kharkiv. While the store in Kherson was closed, limiting casualties, Jonathan questions the strategic value of the attack and speculates on potential military use of the building.
- Drone and Missile Attacks on Russian Territory: Russia reports intercepting 13 drones over Crimea, six over Belgorod, and a Neptune anti-ship missile over the Rostov region. Jonathan notes the continued success of Ukrainian strikes despite Russian attempts at interception.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Oil Refinery
🎦 29:30-34:07⏩
Jonathan discusses a significant Ukrainian strike on an oil refinery in the Rostov region of Russia:
- He notes that despite Russian claims of intercepting a Neptune missile, a large fire erupted at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery. He jokes that the missile might have been "intercepted by an oil refinery."
- He highlights the strategic importance of the refinery, stating it's the only one operating in the Rostov region, with a capacity of 5 million tons of oil per year.
- He provides details from various sources, suggesting that two AVT installations, each with a 2.5 million-ton capacity, were damaged, potentially crippling the entire refinery.
- He expresses doubt about the refinery's ability to resume operation in the foreseeable future.
- He mentions reports of three fuel facilities in Russia being hit by drones, though he has only verified footage of one attack, which he believes to be relatively insignificant.
Attack on Russian-Occupied Novovorontsovka
🎦 34:07-35:13⏩
Jonathan briefly touches upon a large fire reported in Russian-occupied Novovorontsovka, suggesting it was caused by a Ukrainian rocket strike. He mentions that the target is unclear, but the incident signifies Ukraine's ability to strike deep within Russian-held territory.
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Putin's Threats and UN Security Council Meeting
🎦 35:13-39:06⏩
Jonathan analyses Putin's response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory:
- Threats of Retaliation: Putin threatens to supply advanced weapons to third parties to attack sensitive Western targets, should Ukraine continue striking Russian territory with Western-provided weapons. Jonathan dismisses this as an empty threat and points out the hypocrisy of Putin's stance, given Russia's use of North Korean and Iranian weapons in Ukraine. He sees Putin's rhetoric as a sign of desperation and an attempt to deter further Western support for Ukraine.
- UN Security Council Meeting: Russia requests a UN Security Council meeting to address the use of Western weapons to strike Russian territory. Jonathan criticizes Russia's hypocritical stance, highlighting their inconsistent position on Crimea and Donbas, which they claim as their own while simultaneously protesting Western weapons being used there.
Analysis of Staged Russian Propaganda Video
🎦 39:06-41:07⏩
Jonathan dissects a staged Russian propaganda video attempting to portray a French soldier surrendering to Russian forces. He points out several flaws that expose the video's inauthenticity:
- Over-the-top Acting: He notes the exaggerated acting of the Russian soldier pretending to be French, describing it as "the worst bit of acting."
- Hidden Face: The "French" soldier's face is never shown, making it impossible to verify his identity and suggesting it's a Russian soldier in disguise.
- Suspicious Camera Work: The camerawork is staged rather than resembling actual combat footage, further undermining the video's credibility.
Jonathan concludes that while the video is a blatant fabrication, it will likely be disseminated by Russian propagandists as "evidence" of foreign fighters in Ukraine.
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Assassination in Moscow & Rising Crime in Russia
🎦 41:07-43:07⏩
Jonathan discusses a daytime assassination caught on camera in Moscow, where a man was gunned down in what appeared to be a targeted hit. He uses this incident to highlight the rising crime rates in Russia, attributing it to the societal and economic consequences of the war:
- Increased Violence: He posits that war often leads to a surge in violence and crime.
- Strained Resources: He suggests that the focus on the war effort has strained Russia's resources, including law enforcement, potentially contributing to the rise in crime.
- Jonathan concludes by inviting viewer's opinions on this trend, suggesting that the war’s societal and economic strain will continue to have ripple effects within Russia.
Wrap up
🎦 43:07-43:13⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, asking them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He signs off with a "Take care. Speak to you soon."
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