Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News

"So, yeah, Russians still losing an awful lot of kit, although the Ukrainians could do with some, you know, today I think was better, especially with the landing ship, but they need that ratio to be really damaging."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:40⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers from his hotel room in Warsaw having just returned from a trip to the frontline in Ukraine - all 4000km of it. He thanks Greg, Zhenya and Pierre for looking after him and keeping him safe. He will be releasing videos with the latest news which won't be as timely as usual because he's had no internet for over 16 hours and has just arrived at his hotel. He then recounts a humorous interaction with a commenter who questioned why he hadn't posted a frontline update given the alleged Russian advances. Jonathan reminded him that he had just spent 16 hours travelling without internet access.

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General Staff Ukrainian Armed Forces Report - 14th February 2024

🎦 01:41-02:39⏩

Jonathan reviews the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces figures from the previous day, 14th February, noting that equipment losses were particularly high for the Russians, with the loss of 66 artillery systems in one day. Jonathan questions whether this figure is accurate or whether the Russians are exaggerating losses to cover up setbacks in other areas, such as Avdiivka.

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General Staff Ukrainian Armed Forces Report - 15th February 2024

🎦 02:39-03:38⏩

Jonathan reports that the Russian equipment losses for 15th February 2024 continued to be high, with 950 personnel, 9 tanks, 47 armoured personnel vehicles and 54 artillery systems lost. In addition, a large Russian landing ship, the _Caesar Kunikov_, has been sunk by the Ukrainians.

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Oryx Loss Statistics - 13th February 2024

🎦 03:47-05:14⏩

Jonathan reviews the Oryx loss statistics for the 13th of February. Notable Ukrainian losses included an Mi-8 helicopter, two patrol boats, a T-64BV tank and an M113 armoured personnel carrier. The Russians sustained heavier losses, with multiple artillery pieces, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, trucks, MRAPS and civilian vehicles destroyed. Jonathan estimates the losses at roughly 2:1 in Russia's favour, but notes that the Ukrainians need this ratio to be closer to 3:1 or 5:1 to win the war.

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Oryx Loss Statistics - 14th February 2024

🎦 05:14-07:05⏩

Jonathan reviews the Oryx figures for 14th February which show significant Russian losses, including the landing ship mentioned previously, surveillance and combat equipment, artillery (including 3 multiple launch rocket systems, confirming the General Staff figures), a T-72 tank, infantry fighting vehicles, armoured personnel carriers, trucks, civilian vehicles and several of the Chinese ‘Desert Cross’ golf buggy-type vehicles. Ukrainian losses, minus drones, included two M777 Howitzers, a Striker armoured vehicle and some tanks, BMPs, BTRs and pickup trucks. Overall, Jonathan concludes the equipment loss ratio for 14th February was at least 2.5:1 and possibly 3:1 in Ukraine’s favour, which, when the cost of the landing ship is factored in, represents a significant loss for the Russians.

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Russian Landing Ship _Caesar Kunikov_ Sunk

🎦 07:36-09:28⏩

Footage has emerged showing the sinking of the _Caesar Kunikov_ by Ukrainian Magura V5 drones. Jonathan comments that this type of drone attack, where multiple drones attack simultaneously from different angles, makes it difficult for ships to defend themselves effectively. The sinking has been confirmed by Ukrainian sources, who also pointed out that the sinking took place 81 years to the day after the death of the ship’s namesake. Jonathan considers this “Grade A trolling” by the Ukrainians.

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Matt Wallace and Russian Naval Losses

🎦 09:28-10:42⏩

Jonathan recounts a tweet by a Russian troll (possibly paid) called Matt Wallace in which he claimed that anyone who believed that Ukraine could defeat Russia was “clinically insane”. The tweet was accompanied by a photo of 5 Russian naval vessels. Twitter’s community notes feature, where other users can append corrections to tweets, was used to point out that 4 of the 5 ships shown had been sunk - the flagship Moskva and three Rapucha class landing ships.

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Russian Navy Woes - Black Sea Fleet Commander Replaced

🎦 10:42-11:58⏩

Confirmation that Admiral Sokolov, commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet since September 2022, has been removed from his post. Sokolov has not been seen since the Ukrainian attack on Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol on 14 September 2023, leading to speculation that he was killed in the attack. Sokolov has been replaced by Vice Admiral Sergei Mikhailovich Pinchuk. Jonathan wonders about the whereabouts of General Gerasimov, the overall head of the Russian armed forces, who hasn’t been seen since December. Jonathan speculates that he may also be dead.

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Russian Losses Near Krasnohorivka

🎦 11:59-13:47⏩

Footage has emerged, shared by Anton Gorshchenko and War Translated, showing heavy Russian losses near Krasnohorivka. In the video, filmed by a Russian soldier, destroyed Russian tanks and numerous bodies can be seen. The Russian comments, “Here are our destroyed tanks….everything is covered with dead bodies….30% of the brigade of 4,000 men were left.”

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Fighting near Avdiivka

🎦 13:47-14:57⏩

The Russian soldier’s video footage came from near Krasnohorivka, north of Avdiivka, where the Russians are carrying out costly assaults. Jonathan reports that the Russians are having some success there, pushing the Ukrainians back using overwhelming aerial bombardment, artillery and a large commitment of troops. He notes that the Ukrainians appear to be carrying out an operational withdrawal from the area, which, while costly in terms of lost ground, is likely less costly than trying to hold the area in the face of such heavy Russian attacks. He questions, as always, whether either side is achieving anything worthwhile in view of the losses. Footage of a Ukrainian-made Bogdana self-propelled howitzer that was damaged by a Russian FPV drone strike. While damaged, it appears that the vehicle can be repaired and returned to service. In the Bakhmut area, footage shows a Stugna-P anti-tank system destroying a Russian tank. Another was destroyed by direct fire, while a third was hit and became disorientated to the point it began firing on its own troops.

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Russian Logistics Issues

🎦 15:06-15:43⏩

A heating main has exploded in Novy Biskt in Russia. Temperatures there are -26C. Jonathan considers this symptomatic of poor maintenance and ageing infrastructure.

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Overnight Missile Attacks on Ukraine

🎦 15:43-16:33⏩

Jonathan reports widespread missile attacks on Ukraine overnight. According to Mykhailo Podolyak, 26 Russian and North Korean missiles were involved in the attacks, of which 13 were shot down. Six Iskander-M ballistic missiles were launched from the Voronezh region of Russia, while Yuri Ignat stated that KN-23 ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea may also have been used.

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Large Missile Crater Near Bucha

🎦 16:33-18:43⏩

Jonathan reports that he was awoken at 05:10 that morning by air raid sirens while in his hotel room in Kyiv. Packing his bags and heading down to the shelter, he left soon after for the train station as planned. The main entrance was closed, requiring a detour, and, with the lifts out of action, there were a lot of stairs to navigate. The reason for the alert was a large missile strike in the wooded area near Bucha. Images of the crater show the missile landed in open ground and did not hit anything significant. Jonathan speculates that it may have been disabled by electronic warfare or, more likely, simply missed its target. Ilya Ponomarenko visited the site and confirmed the crater to be 3.5m deep, adding that there were no military targets in the area.

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Russian Strikes on Solodovia - 14th February 2024

🎦 18:43-21:28⏩

Jonathan addresses Russian claims that strikes on a Ukrainian base near Solodovia on 14 February 2024 inflicted heavy casualties, stating that, while the Ukrainians issued an immediate denial, his experience has taught him that such denials often mean something did actually happen. The question is how much of what the Russians are claiming is true? Drone footage of the aftermath, shared by Julian Röpcke, showed some explosions but no evidence of the mass casualties claimed by the Russians. Jonathan comments that such claims should be treated with caution, saying “It so annoys me when [someone] clicks on it again and it unmutes….assume makes an ass out of you and me." Further footage emerged confirming strikes on Solodovia but showing a hospital that was hit, resulting in the deaths of three civilians, one of them a child. Twelve others were injured, four of them children. Jonathan concludes that, while he has no confirmation that troops were killed, he believes the Russian claims were exaggerated.

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Heavy Fighting for Avdiivka Continues

🎦 21:28-27:25⏩

Jonathan reports that the situation in Avdiivka is very serious. The Russians have been carrying out intensive airstrikes - 73 in one 24-hour period, the highest number in 2024 so far. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that the Russians now control at least 15% of the city, probably more. The Ukrainians have begun withdrawing from fortified positions in the Zenit area of the city, including from a nuclear bunker that has been held since 2014. They were forced to abandon the position as it was becoming completely surrounded and, unfortunately, not all of the defenders made it out. Alexander Brodin, of the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade, said the situation was ‘dire’, adding that the Russians had committed seven brigades to the assault, giving them a 7:1 numerical superiority over the Ukrainians. He also pointed out that the troops attacking Avdiivka are considered to be some of Russia’s best, whereas in Bakhmut the force was largely made up of Wagner convicts, special forces and poorly trained conscripts. On a positive note, Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka received much needed reinforcements of both HIMARS and artillery ammunition and were able to bombard Russian positions throughout the day. This may account for the high number of Russian equipment losses reported by the Ukrainians. The White House has warned that, unless the Republicans in Congress approve additional funding for Ukraine, the situation in Avdiivka may be repeated in other parts of the country.

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Drone Attacks on Russia

🎦 22:35-24:10⏩

The Russian Ministry of Defence has claimed that it shot down nine Ukrainian drones over Belgorod and Voronezh. Footage has also emerged of a large fire at an oil depot in Kursk, which the Russians claim was started accidentally. Two oil storage tanks were destroyed. Jonathan is unsure about the timing of the attack but says that Ukrainian drone attacks inside Russia appear to be becoming more effective. He hypothesises that, if Ukraine had ten times the number of drones currently in service, Russia would be in a difficult position. Explosions have also been reported in Belgorod, with some speculating that a Russian air defence missile malfunctioned and hit a shopping mall. Seven people were reported killed and many more injured. Local residents have questioned why there was no warning from the authorities, which would tend to indicate that the strike was not the result of a Ukrainian missile attack, as the Russians claimed.

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Russian Offensive in Zaporizhzhia

🎦 24:13-24:49⏩

Despite the ongoing commitment to the fighting around Avdiivka, there are reports that the Russians are preparing a new offensive in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, possibly in the area around Robotyne.

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Wrap Up

🎦 27:53-27:59⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching and asks them to like the video and subscribe to the channel.

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