Ukraine War Update NEWS: 3x AP's Equipment Loss Lists, Personnel Losses
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"These three days have had 440 confirmed kills. This doesn't count infantry killed in vehicles. So if you've got an infantry fighting vehicle that blows up and everyone dies in it, unless you actually see that, it's not counted."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video, identifying it as an "extra" or appendix to the morning's Hits and Losses update.
- The video focuses on Andrew Perpetua's equipment loss lists for 3 days (6th, 9th, and 10th November 2024) and personnel losses.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Andrew Perpetua's Methodology & Importance of Loss Data
🎦 00:15-02:35⏩
- Jonathan explains Andrew Perpetua's methodology for tracking losses:
- Geolocating footage from social media and the internet.
- Focusing more on Russian sources to avoid bias towards Ukraine.
- Visually confirming deaths, which is grim but important work.
- The data allows for analysis of trends and comparison with Ukrainian General Staff figures to understand the situation on the front lines.
- The data also helps determine periods of greater attrition for either side.
Limitations of Visually Confirmed Death Counts
🎦 02:35-03:11⏩
- The 3 days covered show 440 confirmed Russian personnel kills, but this has limitations:
- Doesn't include infantry killed inside vehicles unless visually confirmed.
- Vehicle crews are only counted if their deaths are visibly shown.
Recent Spike in Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 03:12-04:14⏩
- Daily confirmed Russian personnel losses:
- 6th November: 95
- 9th November: 108
- 10th November: 237 (phenomenally high)
- The 10th and 11th November saw record-high personnel loss figures (above 1,600 on the 10th).
- This represents a 30-day rolling average high record.
- The spike in confirmed losses helps justify the belief that Ukrainian General Staff figures are largely accurate.
Analysis of Andrew Perpetua's Loss List for 6th November
🎦 04:15-06:48⏩
- Ukrainian losses:
- Relatively high combat asset losses, including artillery.
- Some surveillance and communications equipment lost.
- Four tanks lost or damaged (including a Leopard 2A4 towed back for repair).
- One Bradley and one FV432 (British) destroyed/captured.
- Significant losses of Humvees, M113s, and other APCs/MRAPs.
- Russian losses:
- Loss of an Su-25 (more valuable than the entire Ukrainian loss list for the day).
- D-30 howitzers, a command and control vehicle, and several tanks destroyed.
- Heavy losses of BMPs, BTRs, and other APCs.
- Overall, a bad day for both sides, but worse for Russia due to the Su-25 and command vehicle losses.
Analysis of Andrew Perpetua's Loss List for 9th November
🎦 06:48-08:40⏩
- Ukrainian losses:
- Roughly half the losses of Russia in terms of combat assets.
- One artillery piece, a few tanks (including an M1 Abrams damaged by a Lancet drone).
- One Bradley damaged, several Western or indigenous APCs and MRAPs lost (including 3 Turkish Kirpis).
- Russian losses:
- An air defence system (Buk-M3), electronic warfare equipment, a recovery vehicle, a boat, and an S-60 artillery piece destroyed.
- Several tanks and significant losses of BMPs and BTRs.
- Five APCs (100% destroyed) and various other vehicles.
- A worse day for Russia, particularly due to the air defence system loss.
Analysis of Andrew Perpetua's Loss List for 10th November
🎦 08:40-11:40⏩
- A very extensive list, with a 4:1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian combat asset losses.
- Ukrainian losses:
- Electronic warfare and surveillance equipment, 1 tank, and 1 ground drone lost.
- Six infantry fighting vehicles lost (including 1 destroyed and 1 abandoned Bradley, and 2 damaged Bradleys).
- Five Western-provided APCs (mostly damaged).
- One captured Kirpi, two destroyed MRAPs, and a damaged Dingo II.
- Several civilian vehicles destroyed.
- Russian losses:
- Electronic warfare, engineering vehicles, and artillery losses.
- Around 10 tanks lost, primarily to drones.
- Over 20 infantry fighting vehicles (BMPs, BTRs) lost, representing heavy losses.
- Several APCs, civilian vehicles (including pickups, motorcycles, and vans), and drones lost.
- A very good day for Ukraine in terms of inflicting losses on Russia.
- Jonathan notes that Russia's lack of MRAP use likely indicates greater survivability for Ukrainian forces, as they use MRAPs more extensively.
Concluding Remarks on Andrew Perpetua's Loss Lists
🎦 11:40-12:17⏩
- Jonathan concludes the analysis of the 3 days of loss lists, highlighting their usefulness.
- He thanks Andrew Perpetua for his work, praising it as "absolutely brilliant stuff."
- The personnel loss statistics are particularly interesting, as they track with Ukrainian General Staff figures (7,361 Russian personnel losses in the past 81 days, averaging just under 100 per day).
- The 10th November was a particularly bad day for Russia in terms of personnel losses.
Wrap up
🎦 12:17-12:22⏩
- Jonathan expresses hope that the information was useful to viewers.
- He thanks viewers for watching and bids them farewell.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
In the section discussing the 6th of November losses, Jonathan mentions the US potentially providing another 2,000 Humvees and Bradleys before January 20th. Is this referring to January 2025, as the video is from November 2024?
The term "bukanka" is used to describe a type of Russian vehicle. It's unclear what specific vehicle this refers to. Is it a slang term for a particular model?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Title, Date, and Part:
Extract these from the YouTube video title using string manipulation.
Topic Titles:
Read through the transcript carefully, identifying distinct sections/subjects.
Create concise, specific, and quantified titles for each section.
Ensure correct spelling of Ukrainian place names.
Remember the "Hello Team" and "Wrap up" topics.
Topic Timeframes:
Locate the start and end times for each topic in the transcript.
Use the correct timestamp format (MM:SS or HH:MM:SS).
Double-check for gaps or overlaps in timeframes to ensure all topics are covered.
Topic Summaries:
Summarise the key points for each topic, including context.
Use bullet points and formatting for emphasis where appropriate.
Include Jonathan's opinions and insights.
Ensure correct spelling and language.
Quote:
Select a meaningful or significant quote from the transcript.
Ensure it is concise and makes sense out of context.
Queries:
Note down any uncertainties or aspects that were not understood during the process.
