Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Patriot vs S-300, Russia-India Oil, Brazil, & Prosthetics
Table of Contents 📖
"Just be aware of what your kind of baggage that you're bringing to these evaluations"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Update EXTRA. It's been a while because he's been busy producing lots of content. He shares a humorous icebreaker video of an Indian Army parade.
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India-Russia Crude Oil Trade
🎦 01:45-17:48⏩
Jonathan discusses a thread by Alexander Strahl, a commodity investor, about the crude oil trade between India and Russia. Key points:
- Since the beginning of the war, sanctions and price caps have forced Russia to sell its oil elsewhere, mainly to countries like India and China who are willing to buy large quantities at a discounted price.
- Before the invasion, Europe imported 55% (2.8m barrels per day) of Russia's crude oil (5.5m barrels).
- G7 sanctions introduced in 12/2022 resulted in Russia having to find new markets for 4.2m barrels per day of crude oil.
- Although China and India were in a position to buy these volumes, China prefers to diversify its energy imports.
- India, however, increased its imports of Russian crude oil from almost zero to 1.8m barrels per day in 2023.
- Since then, a combination of fully absorbed Euro volumes and OPEC Plus cuts, has resulted in India reducing its imports to less than 1m barrels per day in 2024.
- Jonathan suggests that India's reduction in imports is price-related rather than sanctions-related. He believes India are exploiting the situation to get cheap oil and this is having a negative impact on Russia's revenues.
- Jonathan explains that Western countries imposed sanctions with the aim of reducing Russia's profits from oil, without stopping the flow of oil completely, in order to avoid a global energy crisis. He expresses concern that this strategy appears not to be working.
- He expresses further concerns about the environmental risks associated with Russia's use of a "dark fleet" of uninsured and poorly maintained tankers.
Patriot vs S-300 Air Defence Systems
🎦 17:48-30:37⏩
Jonathan analyses the effectiveness of Patriot air defence systems compared to S-300s (operated by both Russia and Ukraine), explaining why Patriots are so important for Ukraine's defence. He explains that while Ukraine's S-300s are still capable, they need upgrading and the introduction of Patriots has helped to reduce the strain on their finite missile stocks. The main advantages of Patriot over the S300 are:
- Availability: The West can readily supply Ukraine with a sustainable supply of Patriot missiles. In contrast, Russia is unlikely to supply Ukraine with missiles for its S-300 system.
- Technology: The Patriot system is more modern than Ukraine's S-300s, particularly the PAC-3 missiles which have been specifically designed to intercept ballistic missiles.
- Integration: The Patriot system can be fully integrated with NATO's Link 16 network, enabling data sharing between Patriot batteries, AWACS, and fighter jets (like the F-16s which are due to be delivered to Ukraine).
- Automation: The Patriot system offers a high degree of automation, significantly reducing target engagement times, compared to the S-300.
Jonathan explains that Patriot's integration with Link 16 is hugely beneficial because it enables the system to overcome the challenges of "blind spots" caused by the curvature of the earth. He explains how an F-16 could use Link 16 to share data about the location of a low-flying missile (which would be hidden from Patriot's radar by the earth's curvature) and vice versa. He goes on to discuss how Ukraine is using the Patriot system, explaining that Patriot and S-300 systems are rarely active all the time, as this would make them easy targets. He speculates that Ukraine may be using early warning radars to track Russian aircraft, only activating Patriot systems when an attack is imminent, thus making it difficult for Russia to locate and destroy them. He believes this may explain the recent downing of three Russian Su-34s and a Beriev A-50U (an Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft), by Ukrainian forces.
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US Involvement in Brazil's 2022 Election
🎦 30:37-39:26⏩
Jonathan discusses a thread by Oliver Stuenkel, which suggests that the US government played a significant role in protecting Brazilian democracy in 2022. Jonathan acknowledges that this may appear at odds with the commonly held view of "American Imperialism", but urges viewers to set aside any preconceived ideas and consider the bigger picture. He highlights how fragile democracy is around the world and argues that the US has a role to play in protecting it. The thread suggests that the US government (and Biden in particular), worked to prevent a military coup in Brazil, after Bolsonaro lost the election to Lula da Silva. Jonathan explains that Bolsonaro, a former military officer, had close ties with the military and was widely considered to be an authoritarian leader. The thread alleges that:
- Bolsonaro had planned to overturn the election result and imprison a Supreme Court Justice.
- A General (loyal to Bolsonaro), had agreed to supply the troops necessary to carry out the coup.
- The Biden administration, aware of the coup plot, put pressure on the Brazilian military to back down.
- The US campaign involved the White House, State Department, CIA, Senate and notably, the Pentagon, with US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, playing a key role, given his close relationship with the Brazilian military.
- The US also assisted Brazil's electoral authorities, helping them to overcome a global chip shortage to ensure the smooth running of the election.
Jonathan believes that had Trump still been President, the US would not have intervened to protect Brazilian democracy and Bolsonaro would likely still be in power. He describes this episode as an example of people working hard, behind the scenes, to protect democracy around the world.
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Ukrainian Soldier Makes FPV Drones Using Bionic Prosthesis
🎦 39:26-40:00⏩
Jonathan shares a positive news story about a Ukrainian soldier, Mykola, who lost his arm in battle. He has since been fitted with a bionic prosthesis, and is now using his skills to make FPV drones for the Ukrainian military.
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The Role of Disabled Soldiers in Ukraine
🎦 40:00-41:21⏩
Jonathan reflects on the challenges faced by soldiers who have been injured in Ukraine, and the need for them to be reintegrated into society. He believes that Ukraine should (and likely is) providing opportunities for those injured to take up alternative roles, such as making FPV drones or administrative roles, which would free up able-bodied personnel to fight.
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Wrap Up
🎦 41:21-41:26⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share.
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