Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News
Table of Contents 📖
"The relative manpower situation is likely the most important factor that will determine the war's trajectory, particularly if Russia can sustain recruiting 20 to 30 thousand people a month."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers, apologising for the late upload due to a busy day attending his son's football semi-final and a rugby match in London. He shares an anecdote about finding joy in unexpectedly hearing Sisters of Mercy's "This Corrosion" on the radio during his drive. He previews upcoming content, promising insights on Australia's aid package and Scalp and Storm Shadow missiles.
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US Military Aid: Two New Packages
🎦 01:09-03:53⏩
Jonathan discusses two recently announced US military aid packages:
- A $1 billion Presidential Drawdown (PDA) for immediate needs like ammunition and HIMARS.
- A $6 billion Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) for long-term procurement. He questions the delay in contracting the $6 billion USAI, speculating that it may be contingent on securing the new aid package or to demonstrate long-term support beyond the November election.
Patriot Missiles and Political Implications
🎦 03:53-08:09⏩
Jonathan clarifies that the $6 billion USAI package taps into remaining funds from the previous bill, not the recently passed $61 billion package. He highlights that this USAI package ensures continued US support for Ukraine beyond the 2024 election, regardless of the outcome. He predicts a Biden win and a Democratic House, but expresses uncertainty about the Senate due to challenging seats. He speculates a split Congress with a Democratic president and House and a Republican Senate might still support Ukraine, given the Senate's history of bipartisan support.
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F-16 Fighter Jet Updates
🎦 08:09-11:16⏩
Jonathan discusses the arrival of F-16 squadrons in Ukraine, stating it's expected to happen sometime this year but hopefully by the end of the next month. He expresses hope for a smooth and swift process regarding the F-16 delivery.
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Belgian and German Military Support
🎦 11:16-12:36⏩
Jonathan reports on Belgium's decision to expedite the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, originally planned for 2025, to 2024. The exact number of planes remains undisclosed. In addition, Belgium will provide air defense missiles from its stocks and contribute €200 million to Germany's initiative to secure air defense systems for Ukraine. Germany will also supply an additional Patriot system to Ukraine. Jonathan acknowledges Germany's significant contribution to Ukraine's air defense capabilities, surpassing expectations, especially during periods of limited US support.
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Military Aid Updates: Norway and Canada
🎦 12:36-13:44⏩
Jonathan provides updates on contributions from several countries:
- Norway will provide $13.7 million for maintaining Leopard 2 tanks in Poland for Ukraine, supplementing its previous contribution of eight tanks and military equipment. Norway's total military aid to Ukraine amounts to $91 million.
- Canada announces a new aid package for Ukraine worth over $2.3 million for drone production. An additional $13 million will support the purchase of artillery ammunition from third countries. Canada will also supply 100 Teledyne FLIR drones, in addition to the 800 already pledged.
Turkish Howitzers and US Ammunition Procurement
🎦 13:44-15:29⏩
Jonathan discusses potential military aid:
- Ukraine might receive 12 Turkish T-155 Firtina howitzers and 155mm artillery ammunition, although this remains unconfirmed.
- The US is considering purchasing 155mm artillery ammunition from Turkey for Ukraine.
- The US is also in talks with Greece to purchase 75,000 artillery rounds of various calibers to replenish Ukrainian stocks.
- Jonathan highlights the possibility of using USAI funds to buy equipment from other countries' stocks for Ukraine.
Poland's Stance on Ukrainian Refugees
🎦 15:29-16:15⏩
Poland has announced it will not deport Ukrainians with expired documents, according to Polish Interior Minister, Marcin Kierzyński. Jonathan acknowledges the complexities surrounding the return of Ukrainian men of fighting age who left the country.
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Abrams Tank Controversy
🎦 16:15-18:12⏩
Jonathan addresses claims that Ukraine's 47th Brigade withdrew Abrams tanks due to vulnerability to drones. He dismisses the notion that Abrams are inherently more vulnerable, suggesting instead that their withdrawal is a strategic response to drone threats to minimize losses of these valuable assets. He highlights the potential PR disaster if Abrams tanks are easily destroyed, leading to misinterpretations about their capabilities. He reiterates that Abrams tanks are not weaker than other tanks; however, their deployment requires careful consideration given the risk. He notes that the Ukrainian military and the 47th Brigade have denied the claims of withdrawal.
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Turkish Exports of Nitrocellulose to Russia
🎦 18:12-20:17⏩
Jonathan, citing information from Intel Schizo, challenges US Secretary of State Blinken's assertion that China is the top exporter of nitrocellulose to Russia. He reveals that Turkey, a NATO ally, has surpassed China as the primary source, accounting for almost 50% of Russia's imports. Before the invasion, Turkey's share was less than 1%. He reveals that several Western companies, including those from Germany and Taiwan, supplied nitrocellulose to the Turkish base company now exporting to Russia. He expresses concern about Turkey's dual role in the conflict, supporting Ukraine while simultaneously engaging in trade with Russia. He suggests closer scrutiny of Turkey's actions and potential leverage over Taiwan, suggesting the US should condition assistance on halting nitrocellulose exports to Russia.
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Rob Lee's Analysis of the Supplemental Bill
🎦 20:17-27:35⏩
Jonathan delves into military analyst Rob Lee's insights on the supplemental bill, summarizing key takeaways:
- While positive, the bill primarily focuses on bolstering Ukraine's defense rather than offensive capabilities in 2024 and 2025.
- Russia may still achieve territorial gains, and the bill alone won't resolve all of Ukraine's challenges.
- Ukraine's three main challenges: ammunition shortages, manpower shortages, and underdeveloped fortifications.
- Increased artillery ammunition deliveries will help but not close the gap with Russia's advantage.
- Importance of mines and anti-tank guided missiles for defense, as demonstrated in recent battles.
- Urgency of addressing Ukraine's air defense needs due to the resumption of Russian missile campaigns targeting energy infrastructure and the threat posed by glide bombs.
- Ukrainian reliance on repurposed systems highlights the need for more effective air defense solutions.
- Manpower shortages remain a critical concern, impacting Ukraine's ability to respond to Russian offensives and rotate troops.
- While a new mobilization bill may improve the situation, its effects will take time.
- Russia's success in recruiting volunteers poses a significant challenge for Ukraine.
- The urgency of mobilizing and training new soldiers for 2025, highlighting the limited time for preparation.
- Russia's ongoing advances and potential fall of key cities like Chazyvyar.
- The need for a long-term strategy from Western allies, including increasing deliveries of long-range missiles.
- Jonathan underscores the need for Ukraine to prioritize mobilization, acknowledging the economic and morale challenges it presents.
Wrap Up
🎦 27:35-28:39⏩
Jonathan reiterates the crucial need for Ukrainian mobilization to secure victory and emphasizes that Western aid, indigenous production, and allied support are essential for a successful defense. He expresses gratitude for viewers' support and concludes the video.
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