Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"And then you had the sort of capitulation in Avdiivka where there was some good use of tunnels getting in behind the ukrainians ukrainians didn't have any uh weapons and ammunition for seven months delivered by the u.s it was a terrible time period of complete shell hunger"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:12⏩
Jonathan Pearce introduces the Ukraine War Update for 20/09/2024, part 1.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 01:12-08:06⏩
- Jonathan notes that the Russian losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff are higher than the average for the last few days, reaching 1,340.
- The losses include 20 tanks and 39 armoured personnel carriers destroyed, double their daily average.
- He speculates that this increase may reflect increased activity on the front line but as he hasn't had a chance to examine the maps from Andrew Perpetua, he is unable to pinpoint the exact reason.
- Some are suggesting that Russia has depleted its resources, citing the Kremlin's decision to increase the army's size by 180,000 personnel.
- The push by the Russians in the Prokrosk direction continues. In Chesivyar, there are reports that specialised personnel like drone operators, mechanics and cooks are being deployed. However, the validity of these reports remains uncertain.
-Jonathan believes that the Russian offensive is an attempt to gain as much territory as possible before the weather changes in favour of the Ukrainians.
- The losses inflicted on the Russians, are significant in terms of equipment losses (using Andrew Perpetua's list), exceeding the Ukrainian losses by a ratio of 3:1.
Ukrainian Losses
🎦 08:06-10:27⏩
- Jonathan examines the Ukrainian losses, noting a significant number of Starlink systems and other communications equipment destroyed.
- Other losses include an ANTPQ-50 radar system, a counter-battery radar, a crane truck, an engineering vehicle, some artillery, a Leopard 2A6 tank, a BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle, M113s, Strikers, Humvees and civilian vehicles.
- A video was shown of the destruction of a Leopard 2A6 tank in Kursk after being abandoned and targeted by a Russian FPV drone.
- Overall, Jonathan concludes that the Ukrainian losses are not excessive.
Russian battlefield footage
🎦 10:27-11:13⏩
- Jonathan expresses uncertainty over whether the footage he is about to show is an isolated incident or reflects a wider pattern.
- The footage depicts Russian soldiers carrying a wounded comrade on a stretcher before abandoning him and fleeing.
- He suggests the possibility of a drone prompting the Russians to flee.
- He questions the morality and character of the Russians who abandoned their injured colleague.
Swedish Stridsvagn 122 Main Battle Tank
🎦 11:13-11:45⏩
- Jonathan shows footage of a destroyed Swedish Stridsvagn 122, a variant of the Leopard 2 main battle tank. He states this is one of the best tanks being operated by the Ukrainians and its loss represents a blow.
- This incident took place in Kursk, where there is mounting evidence that the Ukrainians are conducting offensive operations.
Ukrainian UGV Assault in Kursk
🎦 11:45-14:06⏩
- Jonathan describes footage of a Ukrainian Fury unmanned ground vehicle (UGV), armed with a 7.62 mm machine gun, spearheading an assault in Kursk.
- The footage shows the UGV successfully navigating a minefield before being neutralised by a Russian RPG and FPV drone.
- Jonathan praises the Ukrainians for their innovative deployment of UGVs and predicts an increase in their use by both sides.
- He notes that while the Ukrainians have a greater range of UGVs, their Russian counterparts appear to be using theirs more extensively.
- Jonathan mentions footage of Ukrainian UGVs deploying anti-tank mines against tanks and targeting a railway bridge.
Fires in Russia
🎦 14:06-15:58⏩
- Jonathan, citing Tim White, reports two significant fires in the Moscow region, situated approximately 10 miles apart.
- He highlights a fire at a metal hangar in Mirny village, the cause of which remains unknown. The hangar's contents and any potential casualties are yet to be determined.
- A second fire engulfed a large mattress warehouse in Aparinki.
- He makes light of the ongoing sound issues with the videos, humorously referencing viewer comments who offer advice on muting the audio.
- He draws a humorous comparison between his struggles with the video audio and the film Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf, characterising it as a "love-hate" relationship.
Iranian Shahed Drone Attacks
🎦 15:58-17:34⏩
- Jonathan reports a surge in Iranian-supplied Shahed drone attacks, observing their widespread use by the Russians.
- It remains unclear whether this spike in attacks is a result of increased production or the depletion of stockpiles.
- He commends the Ukrainian air defences, reporting an almost 100% success rate in neutralising the drones.
- On the previous night, all 70 Shahed drones deployed were neutralised, 61 shot down and nine disabled by electronic warfare.
Russian Airstrike on Sumi
🎦 17:34-19:22⏩
- Jonathan discusses a Russian airstrike on a care home in Sumi, which he describes as the murder of civilians, resulting in one fatality and 13 injuries.
- He recounts a discussion with Brendan Kelly and Andrew Perpetua during a recent live stream where they discussed the use of drones to kill civilians in Kherson.
- He suggests that the attack was either intentional, indiscriminate, or a case of a missile veering off course, highlighting the lack of accountability and apologies from Russia.
- He criticises Russia's approach to warfare, arguing that none of the possible explanations are acceptable, especially when striving to conduct warfare responsibly.
Ukrainian Strike on Toropets Ammunition Depot
🎦 19:22-23:34⏩
- Jonathan discusses a Ukrainian attack on a Russian ammunition depot in Toropets, achieved with a large-scale drone assault, potentially involving up to 100 drones. He considers this to be a wise tactic.
- The attack inflicted significant damage, although the full extent is still being assessed through satellite imagery.
- He highlights the depot's robust protection, suggesting the need to target as many bunkers as possible.
- Some speculate that the presence of ammunition crates outside the bunkers exacerbated the damage.
- According to geolocation data, one of the initial explosions occured in the northwestern part of the depot.
- The attack registered a 2.8 magnitude earthquake on the Richter scale with a further 19 aftershocks between 2.0 and 2.8.
- A crater measuring 99 metres (325 ft) in diameter is visible on satellite imagery.
- Estimates of the quantity of ammunition destroyed vary, with some reports suggesting 30,000 tonnes.
- According to Carl Glenn, the damage is extensive, with 78 warehouses destroyed (55.7%), 51 possibly damaged (36.4%) and only a small number (7.9%) definitely undamaged.
- Jonathan concludes by emphasising the success of the attack.
Russian Troop Deployments to Kursk
🎦 23:34-25:32⏩
- Jonathan reports that Russia has deployed 40,000 troops to Kursk Oblast in response to the ongoing Ukrainian incursion.
- Earlier estimates, from General Sersky, placed the number of troops at 30-35,000.
- Zelensky has previously stated that Russia aims to station 60-70,000 troops in Kursk and some analysts believe a force of 150,000 is necessary to repel the Ukrainians.
- Quoting Michael Weiss, who cites a Guardian article and documents seized by the Ukrainian army, Jonathan reveals that Russia had anticipated a Ukrainian incursion into Kursk several months ago.
- This contradicts claims that Russia was caught off guard and suggests an intelligence failure, particularly regarding the scale of the deployment required to counter the Ukrainian advance.
Expansion of the Russian Army
🎦 25:32-32:08⏩
- Jonathan discusses a decree signed by President Putin on 16/09/2024, which will see the Russian armed forces increase in size by 180,000 to 1.5 million.
- This is the third such decree since February 2022.
- The UK's Ministry of Defence believes that Russia will struggle to meet this target, citing heavy losses in Ukraine and recruitment problems.
- Rob Lee is quoted (from the _Wall Street Journal_), stating that Putin met with Defence Ministry officials in April 2024 who pushed for mobilisation to offset the losses in Ukraine. However, Putin dismissed the idea.
- Jonathan questions how much Putin knows about the situation in Ukraine. He suggests that he may be isolated in an information bubble.
- He believes that this lack of awareness could pose a significant problem for Putin and that the Russian high command may not have a clear picture of the situation, leading to miscalculations.
- Jonathan posits that Putin faces a dilemma. Mobilisation will boost troop numbers but could trigger an economic crisis and undermine his political position. However, failure to mobilise will make victory in Ukraine almost impossible.
- He believes that Putin has passed the point of no return and must see the campaign through, despite the risks.
Ramzan Kadyrov's Cybertruck
🎦 32:08-34:05⏩
- Jonathan shares footage of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov driving a Tesla Cybertruck equipped with a machine gun.
- He jokes about Kadyrov riding a "modern horse" and references the song Wanted Dead or Alive.
- He reveals that the Cybertruck has been remotely deactivated, possibly by Tesla or Elon Musk himself, potentially due to sanctions.
- Jonathan believes that Tesla may be legally obliged to deactivate the vehicle under the terms of sanctions imposed on Russia and Kadyrov.
Wrap up
🎦 34:05-34:20⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers for their support and encourages them to like, subscribe, share and drink half a cup of tea.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I am unclear on the exact meaning of "klepto mobilisation".
Who are "the Oryx"? I know there is an analytical team called Oryx that tracks equipment losses, so this could be a reference to them.
What is meant by "modern horse", "steel horse" and "flogging a dead horse"? Are these common expressions?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is quite a long transcript so I will work methodically through each task in turn.
First, I will extract the title, date and part (Task 1).
Second, I will split the transcript into topics by identifying suitable breaks in the topics discussed and provide a concise, granular and informative title for each (Task 2).
Third, I will identify the timestamps for each of the topics (Task 3)
Fourth, I will write a summary for each of the topics (Task 4).
Fifth, I will identify a suitable quote (Task 5).
Finally, I will make a note of anything I didn't understand in the Queries section (Task 6).
