Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"The Russians are going to be thinking if we are going to make serious ground now's the time to do it before the Ukrainians start getting equipment in..."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a late-night frontline update, thanking JR for preparing the maps earlier in the day.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Bakhmut Front: Ukrainian Losses and Russian Advance
🎦 00:16-03:35⏩
- Jonathan highlights significant developments around Bakhmut, noting that despite a positive-looking map, the situation is concerning for Ukrainian forces.
- He references reports from sources like Greg and Zhenya, who are on the ground in Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut. They describe a dire situation with Ukrainian forces losing ground and potentially facing the loss of Chasiv Yar soon.
Kupyansk Front: Ukrainian Counter Attacks and Russian Losses
🎦 03:35-06:21⏩
- There is some positive news for Ukrainian forces in the Kupyansk region, where they have reportedly stabilized their positions.
- Jonathan discusses a back-and-forth battle over a forest area, with Russians initially capturing it before Ukrainians counterattacked and reclaimed the territory.
- He cites information from Andrew Perpetua's analysis, highlighting the dynamic nature of the fighting in this sector.
- Jonathan also mentions that Russian forces in the north have suffered significant casualties, with one incident resulting in 50-60 casualties. He notes this makes evaluating the effectiveness of the Russian operation in the north difficult, despite the losses they have inflicted.
Sumy Region Under Attack: Humanitarian Crisis and Russian Tactics
🎦 06:21-08:38⏩
- Jonathan expresses concern over the heavy shelling in the Sumy region, describing it as a "humanitarian catastrophe." He cites reports of extensive damage to infrastructure, hospitals, and essential services.
- He highlights the use of banned phosphorus weapons by Russian forces and their indiscriminate targeting of civilian areas.
- He specifically mentions Velika Pysarivka, a town heavily bombarded by the Russians, likely in retaliation for attacks on Russian territory.
- Jonathan points out the irony of Russia's use of guided glide bombs on its own settlements in Belgorod Oblast, a region he describes as culturally close to Ukraine.
Donetsk Front: Russian Gains and Ukrainian Challenges
🎦 08:38-16:14⏩
- Jonathan shifts focus to the Donetsk front, where he analyzes the situation around Bakhmut, noting Russian gains and the challenging position of Ukrainian forces.
- He discusses reports indicating the Russians have captured more territory north of Bakhmut, including parts of the Baba Mountain area, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat.
- He draws attention to the strategic importance of Chasiv Yar, which is increasingly vulnerable to Russian capture, and how its loss would be a significant blow to Ukraine.
- He highlights the importance of the high ground north of Ivaniske, now under Russian control, giving them a tactical advantage over Ukrainian positions in the lower areas.
- Jonathan examines the situation in Avdiivka, where Russian forces have made limited gains. He discusses the strategic importance of the river system in the area and how Ukrainian forces are likely repositioning to more defensible positions west of the river.
- He highlights the importance of the small settlement of Novoselivka Druha, crucial in preventing Russian flanking maneuvers towards Avdiivka. Jonathan recounts how Russian forces, potentially facing ammunition shortages and relying on guided glide bombs, eventually bypassed Novoselivka Druha to advance on Avdiivka.
Novoselivka Druha: Disputing Russian Claims and Propaganda
🎦 16:14-18:38⏩
- Jonathan addresses the disputed status of Novoselivka Druha, challenging claims made by Suriant Maps that Russian forces had captured the village.
- He presents counterarguments from Andrew Perpetua, who asserts that Russian forces are still shelling the village, indicating they are not in control.
- Jonathan criticizes the use of propaganda, particularly a video showing the raising of a Russian flag on a building in Novoselivka Druha, highlighting that no buildings in the village have had roofs for years due to constant shelling, thus debunking the Russian narrative.
Further Russian Advances and Frontline Analysis
🎦 18:38-20:04⏩
- Jonathan revisits the northern part of the front, confirming Russian gains around Tonenka and Semenivka, corroborating information from Deep State Map.
- He suggests that the information aligns with the overall Russian strategy of pushing Ukrainian forces back across the river.
- Jonathan acknowledges differences in perspectives between various map sources, particularly regarding the areas around Krasnohorivka, Mariinka, Pobeda, and Novomykhailivka.
- He highlights Andrew Perpetua's view that the areas south of Avdiivka are still contested and should be considered a "grey zone," contradicting other map sources.
Southern Front Update and Concluding Remarks
🎦 20:04-21:10⏩
- Jonathan concludes his frontline analysis, noting no significant changes in the southern sectors, including Velyka Novosilka, Robotyne, and Klishchiivka.
- He acknowledges the ongoing fighting in these areas, with Ukrainian forces holding their positions.
- He encourages viewers to refer to Andrew Perpetua's live stream for a more in-depth analysis of the southern front, emphasizing the value of independent perspectives.
- Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, urging them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He expresses gratitude to his Patreon members, particularly those on higher tiers, for their continued support, which enables him to create content.