Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Opinions of Russia, Scholz's Decision, Mobiks, & Stryker
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Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
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"Sometimes an organization is so broken that it cannot fix itself. It's turning away from the solutions and resolutions that it previously identified and is looking backward."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides extra nuggets of information to give a greater understanding of the war in Ukraine.
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Footage of Russian SPG Taken Out
- Footage shows a Russian SPG and howitzer destroyed, likely by Excalibur projectiles
- The original footage shows Russian soldiers running away after a nearby explosion, but some come back
- A second explosion catches the returning soldiers, with a truck coming back later to retrieve a survivor
- Jonathan notes that with drones overhead, it's risky to return to the vehicles rather than run away and wait until the shelling is over
Invasion of Ukraine Has Slammed Russia's Global Reputation
- A Morning Consult poll shows Russia's standing has collapsed in most countries since the invasion, except Mexico which has a small net positive rating
- The UK has the most unfavourable view of Russia at -79, followed by Japan at -75
- European countries like Germany, France, Italy and Spain are around -68 to -69
- US public opinion is slightly less hostile at -62
- Jonathan ponders the reasons for the differences between the UK and US
Russian Military Reforms Going Backwards
- Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at RAND, suggests the Russian military is now looking back to an era prior to recent reforms
- The reforms were not fully carried out and had problems, but Russia doesn't have the money or personnel to revert
- To fix the issues would require Russia to admit their mistakes, which seems unlikely under the current leadership
- The organization is so broken that it's turning away from previously identified solutions and looking backwards
Mobilized Russian Soldiers Retreating and Facing Punishment
- Mobilized soldiers from Yaroslavl Oblast retreated under heavy shelling on orders from their commander
- The commander is now claiming he never gave the order and the men will be declared deserters
- The soldiers are asking for help to find a solution
- Jonathan notes the wide variety of uniforms worn by the soldiers, highlighting issues in the Russian armed forces
Helicopter Crash a Big Blow to Ukraine
- The recent helicopter crash that killed Ukraine's Minister of Internal Affairs and other top officials is a huge loss
- The minister had a vast remit covering the National Guard, police, emergency services and defence forces
- Much of the ministry worked autonomously but some processes were personalized, so the deaths entail a loss of institutional memory
- Questions are being asked about the wisdom of placing so many top officials on one helicopter
US Aid Package to Ukraine to be Announced, Including Strykers
- The US aid package to be announced Friday will likely include Stryker fighting vehicles and more Bradleys
- Strykers are quick, quiet, have wheels rather than tracks, and carry more infantry
- They have lighter armour and weapons than tanks but are easier to maintain and use less fuel
- The package may include the Stryker variant with a 105mm gun for infantry support
- In combination with other weapons like HIMARS and tanks, these will make a big difference for Ukraine's offensive operations
Scholz's Decision on Leopard Tanks Causing Controversy
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's likely decision not to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine unless the US sends Abrams has caused controversy
- Potential reasons include:
- Lingering pro-Russian sentiment in Scholz's party which values past relations with Russia
- The German military (Bundeswehr) being in poor shape and reluctant to further diminish capabilities
- The new Defence Minister just being sworn in and potentially acting on bad suggestions from the prior minister
- Traditional German anti-war sentiment and not wanting to be seen as a warmonger
- The lasting impact of WW2 on the German psyche
- Germany tends to make controversial decisions when press attention is elsewhere
- If Germany secretly sent tanks it would be different than publicly promising and not delivering
Sweden's Contributions to Ukraine
- Sweden is giving Ukraine 20 Archer artillery systems (out of 48 total), NLAW anti-tank weapons, and 50 CV90 infantry fighting vehicles
- This is a substantial contribution of some of Sweden's best military equipment
Croatian Perspective on Serbian Views of Russia
- A Croatian commenter, Dubravko Lučić, provides his view on why Serbians tend to be pro-Russian
- He claims Serbs will always be pro-Russian because NATO stopped them from achieving in the Yugoslav Wars what Russia is trying to do in Ukraine
- Russia helped Serbia historically because they want access to the Adriatic Sea
- He alleges Serbia is doing the same things in Montenegro that Russia did in Donbas
- Lučić is skeptical of the Serbian president's recent pro-Ukraine statements, believing they are politically calculated
- However, Jonathan notes this is coming from the perspective of a Croat who will have particular opinions about Serbs
Jacinda Ardern Resigning as New Zealand PM
- Jonathan expresses sadness at the news that Jacinda Ardern is resigning as Prime Minister of New Zealand
- He praises her as a brilliant leader in areas like international diplomacy, handling crises, and supporting Ukraine
- He highly recommends watching her recent Harvard speech on democracy and combating misinformation, as well as a separate speech by comedian Tim Minchin
YouTube Removes Jonathan's Video, Causing Frustration
- One of Jonathan's Ukraine War Update Extra videos was removed by YouTube for alleged misinformation
- Jonathan reviewed the video and found nothing controversial, but his appeal was rejected
- YouTube won't specify what part of the video violated guidelines, leaving Jonathan unable to correct any issues
- He is very frustrated by this and suspects foul play like mass reporting by Russian bots
- Jonathan is worried that another strike could impact his ability to post or livestream
Wrap Up
Jonathan thanks the viewers, asks them to like, subscribe and share, and notes that they can support the channel in various ways linked in the description. He will be back with another update tomorrow.
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