Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"I mean, it's a challenge everywhere around there. I can't see any of this not being a big threat to the Ukrainians on a consistent basis."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:52⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to the daily frontline update for 21st December 2023 - a late one for Jonathan. He reminds viewers that if they need to understand what the lines mean on the map, they can pause the video and check the key. He notes that he won't be referring to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report today as it hasn't been released yet. This update will focus on the pins he has added to the map to indicate activity in these locations.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Northeastern Sector Overview

🎦 00:52-02:53⏩

Jonathan reports that there is a lot of Russian activity along the entire Northeastern axis. He highlights footage of a large assault repulsed by the AFU in the Terny area, West of Kreminna, featuring Russian infantry, APCs, and IFVs. The attack was repelled with artillery, mortar fire, and cluster munitions. Jonathan speculates that the Russians are probing Ukrainian defences, attacking multiple locations along the frontline to identify and exploit weaknesses. He questions if this is part of a coordinated "deep battle" strategy or random attacks.

Bakhmut Front

🎦 02:53-05:58⏩

Jonathan describes the situation around Bakhmut as "tough" for the Ukrainians, especially north and west of the city. Whilst there's been a slow-down in the Kramova-Bohdanivka area, the Russians have advanced beyond the 30th May frontline. He highlights the Russian advance towards Ivanivske, southwest of Bakhmut, with the capture of datchas (cottages) in that area. Footage has emerged of Ukrainian losses. In Klishchiivka, the situation is described as "touch and go" with reports of Ukrainian pushbacks in Andriivka. Military Lab reports confirm small advances by both sides in the east of the village. To the north of the reservoir, the Russians crossed railway tracks, while Ukrainians recovered positions further south. Jonathan stresses the importance of holding those trenches for any Ukrainian advances to be worthwhile. He notes that there are no updates from Kodema, south of Klishchiivka.

Avdiivka-Donetsk City Frontline

🎦 05:58-10:15⏩

Jonathan notes Russian advances in Avdiivka, with both Deep State and Suriat Maps indicating small gains around tree lines, and north of Stepova. However, he advises caution, noting claims of Ukrainian pushbacks in Stepova. Suriat Maps reports the Russian army continues to advance along the railway towards Zariadachyi, near Novobakhmutivka, forcing Ukrainian troops to fall back towards Beditsi. Jonathan reminds viewers of a previous false claim by Rebar, of a Russian breakthrough to Beditsi. He explains that fighting has been ongoing along the railway and tree lines for some time. Jonathan emphasizes the challenge faced by Russian forces as they advance, pointing out the vulnerability of their supply lines as they push north of Avdiivka. Further north, in the area around the coke plant, Barry Cooter reports a Russian Kamikaze drone strike on Ukrainian BMP-1s and BMP-2s in Tonenke, north of Vodiane. Jonathan highlights the effective use of Kamikaze drones by both sides and speculates that they are used to disrupt enemy activities in the area. He expresses concern over the Russian advance towards Severnye due to the flat terrain, which makes it difficult for Ukrainian forces to defend.

Novomykhailivka Counteroffensive

🎦 10:15-13:21⏩

Jonathan highlights significant news from Novomykhailivka where the Ukrainians have launched a counter-attack, pushing the Russians back and regaining control of areas previously lost. He views this counter-attack as confirmation of Novomykhailivka's strategic importance and suggests it indicates the Ukrainians are actively resisting Russian pressure points along the front. Jonathan notes Suriat Maps' initial depiction of the Ukrainian gains was an underestimate, with a larger area now confirmed as under Ukrainian control. He references footage shared by No Report of a failed Russian attack east of Novomykhailivka, showing a Russian BMP-3 delivering infantry that was forced to retreat due to heavy losses.

Southern Front Update

🎦 13:21-18:39⏩

Jonathan reports no significant changes in Velyka Novosilka. However, in Robotyne, Ukrainian forces launched a counterattack, pushing back Russian forces and regaining control of several tree lines west of the village. This success was confirmed by geolocated footage but is yet to be reflected in mapping updates. In the Dnipro region, Jonathan expresses concern as the Russians have pushed back Ukrainian forces in the northeast of Krynky, taking control of the grey zone. He acknowledges this area as "borderline" for some time, with limited Ukrainian gains. Jonathan acknowledges the heavy Russian losses but emphasizes the challenges of attrition warfare, where Russia's ability to commit resources takes a toll. He expresses skepticism about the likelihood of a Ukrainian breakthrough in this region, citing the difficulty of deploying sufficient troops and equipment across the Dnipro River. Jonathan suggests the Ukrainians may be forced to abandon the bridgehead due to constant shelling, MLRS barrages and FAB-500 guided bomb attacks.

Wrap Up

🎦 18:39-19:21⏩

Jonathan concludes the frontline update, acknowledging the emotional toll of witnessing the conflict unfold on the map and the connection felt to these places. He expresses his intention to share his analysis of the winter situation in a future video and discuss what Ukraine needs to succeed. However, he notes that his output may be affected by family visiting.