Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"So I'm going to pay the fox to protect the hens there."
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Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics for the Ukraine War News Update, Part 1, for 6th February 2025.
- He mentions there is a lot to cover and he will try to be concise.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses according to Ukrainian General Staff
🎦 00:15-01:41⏩
- Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, with the usual caveat about data supply being in the description.
- Personnel: 1,240 soldiers.
- Tanks: 18 - double the daily average and a significant spike. Jonathan questions if these are older, less combat-ready tanks.
- AFVs: 16 troop carriers - just below the daily average.
- Artillery Systems: 46 - over double the daily average.
- MLRS: 2.
- Anti-Aircraft Warfare Systems: 2.
- Vehicles and Fuel Tanks: 133 - a very high number, continuing a 30-day rolling average record.
- Special Equipment: 2 pieces.
- Jonathan notes the high vehicle and fuel tank losses suggest Ukrainians are effectively targeting Russian equipment used for troop transport to the contact line, including unarmoured columns.
Andrew Perpetua Russian Loss List: 3rd-5th February
🎦 01:41-03:30⏩
- Jonathan reviews Andrew Perpetua's loss list for the 3rd, 4th and 5th of February to give a visual confirmation of losses.
- 3rd February: 160 personnel losses. Ratio of losses is approximately 7:1, mostly civilian vehicles and ATVs, though combat asset losses are still present. Jonathan reiterates that civilian vehicles are being used as combat assets.
- Ukrainian losses (3rd Feb):
- Challenger 2 tank damaged by a Vandal drone - first time in a long time, possibly since May 2023 counter-offensive.
- Couple of Bradleys damaged/abandoned - not too concerning.
- Russian losses (3rd Feb) cont.:
- Many civilian vehicles, including a dozen ATVs (mostly quads) and golf buggies.
- Artillery pieces, including older D20s and D30s.
- "Track garden shed" tank amongst the two tanks lost.
- Couple of IFVs, APCs and infantry mobility vehicles.
Andrew Perpetua Russian and Ukrainian Loss List: 4th February
🎦 03:30-05:45⏩
- 4th February: 131 personnel losses. Overall Russian losses remain high, with civilian losses, trucks, and ATVs contributing significantly. Combat asset losses are similar to previous days.
- Ukrainian losses (4th Feb):
- Air defence system damaged - older Tunguska 2S6 Tunguska, not a critical loss.
- Couple of engineering vehicles and artillery pieces.
- Bradley abandoned (mine) and Bradley damaged (night vision FPV drone).
- Several APCs and MRAPs lost, mostly irretrievably, including a captured Max Pro.
- Stryker abandoned and hit by drone bomb.
- Other vehicles: Varta, Max Pro, Kozak, Senator - mix of Western-provided vehicles.
- Russian losses (4th Feb):
- Damaged Osa air defence system - older, rocket-based system.
- Seven boats destroyed by FPV drones.
- Artillery including Grad 1 and older pieces like M46 and D-30s, and Akatsias.
- Combat assets show bad damage to irretrievably lost ratio.
- Tanks including T-72s, T-82s etc.
- BMP-3s.
- Large number of trucks, likely due to FPV drone footage.
- Quads, golf buggies and many civilian vehicles.
Andrew Perpetua Russian and Ukrainian Loss List: 5th February
🎦 05:45-06:28⏩
- 5th February: 160 personnel losses again, remaining high. Huge numbers of civilian trucks and ATVs lost.
- Jonathan highlights the sheer volume of vehicle losses over three days - hundreds. The General Staff figure of 133 vehicles and fuel tanks lost in a single day is plausible based on these visual confirmations.
- These figures likely represent only a fraction of actual losses, as they are only the visually confirmed ones on social media.
Andrew Perpetua Ukrainian Loss List: 5th February
🎦 06:28-07:17⏩
- Ukrainian losses (5th Feb):
- Couple of engineering vehicles and artillery pieces.
- Good damage to irretrievably lost ratio for Ukrainian equipment.
- Seven tanks, all T-64s (mostly BVs).
- Destroyed and damaged Bradley (Vandal drone hits).
- Senator infantry mobility vehicle and VAB French APC destroyed.
- Abandoned M1A3 (not high value).
- Trucks and civilian vehicles, but less than Russian losses.
Andrew Perpetua Russian Loss List: 5th February cont.
🎦 07:17-08:55⏩
- Russian losses (5th Feb) cont.:
- "Phenomenal amount" of civilian vehicles, including "party loads" (Scooby-Doo vans/Pocankas), Lardas, motorcycles.
- Approximately 20 ATVs, mostly quads.
- Combat assets, including engineering vehicle and BM-21 Grad MLRS.
- Artillery pieces.
- Bad ratio of damage to irretrievably lost for Russians.
- Around half a dozen tanks, four of which are "track garden sheds" (not used as tanks).
- BMP-2s and BMP-3s.
- 10 IFVs, all irretrievably lost.
- APCs damaged, MRAPs destroyed.
- Trucks, ATVs, and civilian vehicles.
Russian Tank Losses Analysis
🎦 08:55-09:04⏩
- Jonathan summarises Russian equipment losses over the three days as "phenomenal".
- He expresses confidence in the Ukrainian General Staff figures, especially for equipment losses.
Ukrainian Personnel Losses - Estimates and Comparisons
🎦 09:04-10:05⏩
- Jonathan discusses the reliability of personnel loss figures compared to equipment losses. Equipment losses are easier to verify visually. Personnel losses are more of an estimation.
- Zelensky stated 45,100 Ukrainian troops lost to Piers Morgan, which Jonathan considers conservative.
Comparison of Ukrainian Loss Estimates
🎦 10:05-11:24⏩
- Jonathan compares Zelensky's figure with other estimates of Ukrainian losses (dead):
- The Economist: 60,000 - 100,000.
- Wall Street Journal (August 2023): 80,000.
- US officials (August 2023): 70,000.
- Military journalist Budsov: 70,000 killed, 35,000 missing.
- Russian losses according to Zelensky: 300,000-350,000 killed, 600,000-700,000 wounded.
- Ukrainian military claim: 843,000 Russian casualties.
- British Defence Ministry: In accordance with Ukrainian estimates (750,000+ casualties, now more).
- Former US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin: 700,000+ Russian casualties (sometime back).
- Russia's last official estimate (September 2022): 6,000 losses.
- Jonathan concludes it's difficult to know true Russian losses but it's "a hell of a lot more than they can sustain".
Ukrainian Advances in Kursk Region
🎦 12:01-12:31⏩
- Mapping update shows Ukrainian advances in the Kursk region, specifically east of Sudzha, north of Plokovo.
- Ukrainians are pushing towards Makhanovka from Sudzha.
- Jonathan notes this renewed Ukrainian activity in Kursk.
Russian POWs in Kursk Region
🎦 12:31-13:02⏩
- Capture of Russian POWs, including marines from the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, in the Kursk region is a sign of Ukrainian offensive actions.
- Sean Pinner comments that capturing Russians inside Russia is embarrassing for Putin.
Prisoner Exchange: 150 for 150
🎦 13:02-13:24⏩
- Prisoner exchange took place: 150 Ukrainians returned home in a 150 for 150 swap.
- Positive news to see Ukrainians returning.
Azov Regiment POWs Remain in Russian Captivity
🎦 13:58-14:29⏩
- Despite the prisoner exchange, approximately 800 Azov Regiment soldiers remain in Russian captivity.
- "Free Azov" rallies continue in Kyiv every Sunday, advocating for their release. These are soldiers who defended the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol.
Official Ukrainian Video of Prisoner Exchange
🎦 14:29-14:38⏩
- Official video from Ukrainian security services shows the prisoner exchange event.
- Good news for the released servicemen and their families.
Rehabilitation and Re-enlistment of Released POWs
🎦 14:38-15:05⏩
- Jonathan wonders about the rehabilitation and re-enlistment process for released POWs.
- Questions how quickly they are returned to service and their willingness to rejoin combat after captivity, considering potential mental scars.
- Invites viewers with information on this to share.
Decrease in Russian Assault Operations
🎦 15:05-15:41⏩
- Russian assault operations have decreased for the seventh day in a row, which is significant.
- Deep State, referencing General Staff statistics, reports 80 attacks yesterday, down from a peak of 292 in December.
- This is a significant dip and indicates a longer-term decline in Russian attacks, which Jonathan views as positive for Ukraine.
Russian Army Using Animal-Drawn Transport
🎦 15:50-16:20⏩
- Videos circulating suggest the Russian army is using animal-drawn transport, specifically donkeys, to transport ammunition due to equipment shortages.
- Dmitry from War Translated notes this as a "qualitatively different stage of development" for the Russian army, contradicting Putin's promises of modernisation.
Equipment Shortages in Russian Army
🎦 16:20-17:04⏩
- Jonathan believes the use of donkeys indicates genuine equipment shortages within the Russian army.
- High losses of trucks, quads, and other vehicles, along with combat assets, mean Russians struggle to transport supplies to the front lines.
- Donkey transport may be a result of having no other options.
Russian Conscript Crashes Truck into Su-25 Jet
🎦 17:04-17:33⏩
- A Russian conscript without a license crashed a Kamaz truck into a Su-25SM3 jet at Simferopol airfield, destroying the jet engine.
- Damage estimated at $4.3 million, unit loses combat capability.
- Soldier received a suspended sentence and must repay $111,000.
- Jonathan finds this loss in a "ridiculous situation" damaging to the Russians.
Grad MLRS Ammunition Truck Detonation
🎦 17:33-18:02⏩
- Footage shows Russian soldiers filming the detonation of their own truck carrying Grad MLRS ammunition, describing it as "beautiful".
Decline in Russian Artillery Footage
🎦 18:02-19:15⏩
- Jonathan observes a noticeable decrease in footage of Russian artillery fire compared to earlier in the war.
- Suggests this could indicate ammunition shortages and losses of artillery barrels and MLRS launchers.
- Anecdotal observation, but noteworthy.
Bus Parking Lot Fire in Moscow Region
- A bus parking lot in Lviv, Bertsy, Moscow region, burned down, destroying 30 buses.
- Another "massive fire" in Russia, with speculation about sabotage or insurance fraud.
- Such incidents are becoming frequent.
Assassination Attempts on Russian Military Figures
🎦 19:30-20:08⏩
- Anton Gerashchenko reports numerous recent assassination attempts and "liquidations" of Russian military figures, officials, and those connected to the war in Ukraine.
- Names mentioned include:
- Igor Kirillov (Head of radiation, chemical and biological defence troops).
- Kandeyev (Head of Department of State Expertise of Russian Ministry of Defence).
- Efremov (Vice-governor of Primorsky Krai and commander of Tiger Volunteer Military Unit).
- Trankovsky (Naval captain, chief of staff of 41st Brigade of Russian Missile Ships).
- Jonathan questions if Trankovsky is the official assassinated while jogging in Sevastopol.
Krasnodar Region Fire
🎦 20:08-21:30⏩
- Fire incident reported, war has been long and difficult. Fire contained by 10pm yesterday.
Arson Attacks and Sabotage
🎦 21:30-22:04⏩
- Mentions previous arson attacks in Poland linked to Russian security services.
- Suggests fire will become a weapon of choice for sabotage and terrorism due to its ease and potential for damage, compared to more complex methods like bomb-making.
Attacks on Ukrainian Recruitment Centres
🎦 22:16-22:44⏩
- Recruitment centres in Ukraine are being targeted, including an attack in Khmelnytskyi that killed one and injured others.
- Ukraine claims Russia is recruiting saboteurs for these attacks.
- Kiev warns that these bombers often die as the devices are designed to detonate early, eliminating witnesses.
- Recruitment officers are definitely being targeted.
Drone Strikes and Air Defence
🎦 22:44-23:02⏩
- Overnight, 74 out of 77 drones were intercepted by Ukrainian air defence (56 shot down, 18 by electronic warfare).
- "Pretty good interception rate".
- 3 drones got through out of 77.
Damage from Drone Strikes
🎦 23:02-23:27⏩
- Drone strike damage reported in Kharkiv, Chukchi, and Dnipropetrovsk, likely including damage from intercepted drones.
- Russian forces struck Kharkiv's Barabashovo market overnight, causing a massive fire and destroying stalls. A "real shame" and "sad" event.
Drone Activity at Promorskoe Akhtarsk Airfield
🎦 23:27-24:38⏩
- Video from Krasnodar region shows drone activity in Promorskoe Akhtarsk.
- Important location as a launch point for Russian attack drones.
- Verified location shows smoke from Russia's drone launch area at the airfield, and video evidence of damage to the airbase.
- Ukrainian drones flying over many regions, including Rostov.
- Ukrainian forces confirmed striking Promorskoe Akhtarsk airfield in Krasnodar region, used for storing, preparing, and launching Shahid drones and servicing aircraft in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
- Results of the hits are being clarified, but "good news for the Ukrainians".
Improved Accuracy of North Korean Missiles
🎦 24:38-25:27⏩
- North Korea has improved missile accuracy, possibly with Russian assistance.
- Accuracy improved from a CEP of 1-3 km to 50-100 meters.
- Still not perfect, but a significant improvement and dangerous given the missile's destructive power.
- Missiles may have improved navigation or steering mechanisms.
- Ukrainians claim Russians improved the accuracy of North Korean missiles. "Real, real shame".
French Mirage 5000F Jets Supplied to Ukraine
🎦 25:27-26:18⏩
- France has supplied the first of possibly three Mirage 5000F multi-role jets to Ukraine, according to Spassion Local Newly Secretary of Defence (Sebastian Lukonuse).
- First jet arrived today. "Excellent news".
- Will participate in defending Ukrainian skies, though it's unclear if they'll be used defensively (missile/drone interception) or offensively.
Ukrainian Success in Kursk Region (Fanasivka)
🎦 26:18-27:05⏩
- Zelensky mentions "historic operation" and Ukrainian forces entering Fanasivka in Kursk region.
- Fanasivka is east of Sudzha and north of Plokovo, indicating Ukrainian success in this area.
- "We'll see how that pans out".
Closure of Last Ukrainian Coking Coal Mine
🎦 27:05-27:23⏩
- Ukraine's steel producers are looking abroad for survival after the closure of the last operating coking coal mine in the Pokrovsk area last month.
- Mine closure due to proximity to fighting in Pokrovsk.
- Loss of domestic coking coal will negatively impact Ukrainian steel production, affecting industrial and military equipment/munitions production. "Real shame for the Ukrainians".
Pope's "Turn the Other Cheek" Comment
🎦 28:25-29:13⏩
- Jonathan criticises recent comments from the Pope, possibly about "turning the other cheek" in the context of the Ukraine war.
- Argues this approach is not useful in international conflict and would invite further Russian aggression.
- Striking back is important for Ukraine's defence.
- Questions the Pope's understanding of international conflict resolution, suggesting the comment might be misapplied or misinterpreted.
USAID Being Gutted
🎦 29:13-32:39⏩
- "Terrible news" regarding USAID.
- Christie (source) highlights "destruction of USAID" as major real-world damage, masked by other news.
- Blocking USAID helps Russia's war against Ukraine.
- Refers to a Daily Telegraph article (UK) about Musk's "purge" of USAID, cutting off workers on Ukraine's front line.
- "Bad, bad news for Ukraine", and bad news for the world, but good for Russia and China.
- USAID is being reformed or cut, but Jonathan criticizes the approach of sending in inexperienced individuals to shut things down instead of sensible auditing and reform.
Elon Musk and USAID - Potential Conflicts of Interest
🎦 32:39-35:34⏩
- Jonathan believes there's "more to this than meets the eye" regarding USAID's gutting.
- Questions why USAID was the first target for Musk and his team.
- Notes USAID has long been a right-wing "bogeyman" and a target for foreign enemies like China, who want USAID gone.
- Speculates if China pressured Musk, given his business interests in China (Tesla City).
- More likely reason: USAID was investigating Elon Musk's Starlink contracts when the changes happened.
- Greg Sklorekinski suggests USAID's investigation related to US taxpayer support for Starlink in Ukraine, despite Musk charging for services.
- James Tate suggests USAID was investigating Musk's contracts for fraud.
- Shutting down USAID could be motivated by a desire to stop investigations, obtain incriminating evidence, and eliminate the problem.
- Compares Musk to Trump, calling him a "sociopath" who doesn't care about consequences.
- "Follow the money" and examine the motivations behind targeting USAID.
Elon Musk's Conflicts of Interest and Control over Payments
🎦 35:34-36:36⏩
- Musk is now reportedly in charge of determining if he has a conflict of interest, which Jonathan calls "insanity" and "paying the fox to protect the hens".
- Criticizes the situation as a massive conflict of interest, with Musk shutting down investigations into himself.
- Condemns the actions as "despicable".
- Jonathan gives his personal opinion and concludes the news update.
- Signs off with "Take care, guys. Speak to you soon. Toodlepips."
Wrap up
🎦 36:36-36:36⏩
- Jonathan concludes the video and says goodbye to viewers.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I understood everything in the transcript and the tasks. I double checked that I have used `` and not `` for the timestamps. I have used Ukrainian spellings and British English as requested.
