Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"if you want to understand what's going on in this wall just look at yesterday morning uh and and you get a pretty good idea"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the first update of the day and warns viewers that there will be multiple videos today as there is lots to get through. This video will cover overnight news and other updates. A separate video on US Military Aid will be uploaded later today.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff figures for 17th April 2024
🎦 00:26-02:02⏩
Jonathan provides the General Staff figures for the previous day, 17th April 2024 noting that personnel losses were high but equipment losses lower across the board. This could be because of bad weather - rain is causing muddy conditions in some frontline areas. This would make it difficult to move vehicles but drone activity and fighting from fixed positions could continue. The figures may also reflect personnel losses from strikes that took place yesterday - a strike on Jankoi left 30 killed and 80 injured. Losses for 17th April:
- 3 Russian tanks
- 8 Russian armoured personnel vehicles
- 13 Russian artillery systems
- 31 Russian vehicles and fuel tanks
- 5 pieces of Russian special equipment
Jonathan compares figures from Oryx, a source that counts visually confirmed equipment losses, noting that today is unusual because although Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses are about the same, the value of Russian equipment lost is significantly higher.
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Analysis of equipment losses for 17th April 2024
🎦 02:02-04:19⏩
Jonathan analyses the Oryx data in greater detail, looking at Ukrainian losses first: a mixed bag of boats, howitzers, tanks, a Bradley (possibly damaged) and some Humvees, MRAPs, trucks, SUVs - nothing major. By contrast, Russian equipment losses are very significant. The strike on Jankoi resulted in the loss of 5 S-400 systems (launchers), a TOS-1 thermobaric launcher, a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system as well as tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, trucks, civilian vehicles, ATVs and even 3 golf carts! Jonathan points out that these figures don't include the radar or any other S-400 components, which are likely to be higher than the figures being reported. He goes on to explain how the cost isn't simply the replacement value, but whether Russia is even able to replace them - are there any more available, how long will it take to replace them and at what financial/strategic cost? What does this mean operationally? He also questions what the impact of these losses will be on future Ukrainian strikes - will Ukraine now be able to strike Jankoi freely and will they target the new location if Russia attempts to replace them?
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Ukraine confirms Jankoi Air Base Strike
🎦 04:19-06:13⏩
Jonathan moves on to discuss the strike on Jankoi Air Base. Ukrainian GUR (military intelligence) spokesperson, Andriy Yusov confirmed that intel suggests only one helicopter was hit in the strike. Jonathan reasons that the likely reason for this is that any airframes would have scrambled as soon as the missiles were detected (this applies to both sides) and that there would have been enough time to get the helicopters airborne, suggesting that they were not the intended targets. Further confirmation of the strike came from Ukraine Battle Map who, after analysis of imagery, concluded that all five S-400 launchers at Jankoi Air Base had been either destroyed or damaged, along with a radar and other S-400 battery components. Jonathan suspects there may be additional losses that have yet to be confirmed from the single photo that has been released so far.
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Impact of the Jankoi strike on Russia
🎦 06:13-07:04⏩
Jonathan highlights a post from Jakub Janowski from Oryx who joked that the success of the strike was not good publicity for the S-400 and that it's likely India (who have S-400s on order) will opt to buy non-Russian Patriot surface to air missiles instead. Jonathan shares a meme doing the rounds on social media which shows an S-400 operator reacting in horror to two 30 year old ballistic missiles (ATACMS) appearing on their radar. The fact that eight old ATACMS were able to get through Russian radar, target acquisition systems, destroy the S-400 radar and the surface to air missiles that were supposed to take them out is concerning for Russia.
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Speculation about missiles used in Jankoi strike
🎦 07:04-07:43⏩
Jonathan talks about rumours that the missiles used were Ukrainian made rather than ATACMS. This is interesting for two reasons:
- If the missiles are ATACMS, then questions remain about how they were obtained - are they from existing US stockpiles or are they new?
- If the missiles are Ukrainian, then this is good news for Ukraine because it means they could potentially use them to strike targets inside Russia (as they wouldn't be restricted by the conditions imposed on the use of western supplied equipment). The range and rate of manufacture are currently unknown.
Explosions reported in Tatarstan
🎦 07:43-08:31⏩
Jonathan reports heavy explosions at Gorbunov in Tatarstan in Russia where a facility used for the production and repair of TU-22 (Blackjack) and TU-160 (Blackjack) strategic bombers is located. Video footage of the explosions and smoke plumes have been shared on social media, along with footage of air raid sirens sounding in the local area. The strike reportedly targeted the Tupolev factory in Kazan. There is speculation that aircraft may have been destroyed in the attack.
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Ukraine suspected of using modified aircraft as loitering munitions
🎦 08:31-10:17⏩
Claims circulating on social media that Ukraine used a converted Antonov An-22 (Antei) cargo plane (NATO reporting name: 'Cock') in the strike. The aircraft is thought to have been converted to enable it to be flown remotely or autonomously, effectively turning it into a large loitering munition. Jonathan clarifies that this was not the strike that targeted the factory in Tatarstan, but a separate strike on the Kontseba radar station near Kovalykino in Bryansk Oblast, Russia (close to the border with Ukraine and Belarus). He explains that this is the second time the facility has been hit. This attack was launched from a distance of 600km. The radar at the facility is a beyond the horizon radar system with a range of 3000km. It's not known what damage was sustained in the attack.
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Overnight drone attacks
🎦 10:17-11:08⏩
Jonathan moves on to report on overnight drone strikes, beginning with the good news that Ukraine shot down all 13 of the drones launched by Russia. He notes that there appears to be a good rate of interception when 10-12 drones are launched, with Ukraine repelling most, if not all. Air raid sirens sounded in Dnipro Oblast, with strikes confirmed in Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro and Uzhhorod. The weapons used in these attacks are thought to be Kh-35 anti-ship missiles (NATO reporting name: AS-20 'Kayak') being used in ground attack mode. Although these are less accurate, they are extremely difficult to shoot down.
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Chernihiv missile attack - 17th April 2024
🎦 11:08-12:10⏩
Jonathan talks about the missile strike on Chernihiv on 17th April 2024. The attack, which saw three missiles slam into civilian infrastructure including hospitals, hotels and a theatre killed 18 people and injured 78. Jonathan remarks on the stark contrast between Ukrainian strikes on military targets that morning, which were in response to Russian aggression, and the deliberate targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure by Russia, asking viewers to reflect on the morality of each side in the conflict.
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Belgorod and Voronezh targeted
🎦 12:10-13:31⏩
Jonathan reports that air raid sirens were heard, and air defences were active in Belgorod, which has been used by Russia to launch attacks into Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. The frequency of attacks on Belgorod suggests that Ukraine is attempting to destroy the S-300 (NATO reporting name: SA-10 'Grumble') long range surface to air missile systems based there. The city of Voronezh was also attacked, though it's not clear what the intended target was. There are reports that a drone was shot down and landed on an industrial building, though this is unconfirmed - it could be that this building was the intended target, particularly as it could be involved in the production of military equipment.
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Drone activity in Rostov Oblast
🎦 13:31-13:37⏩
Unidentified drones were seen over the Kamensky Chemical Plant in Rostov Oblast, a facility that manufactures solid fuels used in multiple launch rocket systems.
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Flooding in Russia
🎦 13:37-15:17⏩
Jonathan reports on the ongoing flood situation in Russia. Water levels are continuing to rise in the city of Kurgan, which is home to Kurganmashzavod, a large plant involved in the defence sector. This facility is the only one in Russia that manufactures BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles. Jonathan hopes that Mother Nature might come to Ukraine's rescue, noting that this will be a major blow to Russia if the plant is damaged. He goes on to talk about the public discontent in Russia about how the flooding has been handled by the authorities. One settlement clubbed together to pay a private contractor to build flood defences, which were successful, whilst government funded projects, which cost millions of roubles, were ineffective (blamed on rodents by the mayor). There have been accusations that these projects were riddled with corruption, further fuelling discontent. Jonathan observes that the flooding is beneficial to Ukraine, diverting resources from the war effort and fuelling dissent in Russia.
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Energy Security
🎦 15:17-16:54⏩
Anton Gerashchenko, advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine posted a reminder that Russia has destroyed almost all thermal power generation in Ukraine. Jonathan adds that Russia is less likely to target nuclear power plants, which is why Ukraine has been working with the US company, Westinghouse to construct a new reactor at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant. The destruction of non-nuclear facilities may force Ukraine to rely on nuclear power for all its energy generation needs, though there are concerns about whether the grid can cope. Gerashchenko called for more air defence systems to protect critical infrastructure such as dams, hydroelectric plants, and gas infrastructure from attack. Zelensky echoed these concerns, stating that attacks on nuclear power plants could not be ruled out.
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Wrap up
🎦 16:54-17:31⏩
Jonathan lets viewers know that he'll be taking a closer look at a statement from Mike Johnson (US representative) in a separate video. He explains that although on the surface the statement appears to be very good news for Ukraine, on closer analysis, it's likely that nothing will change with US military aid. Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share.
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