Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
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Table of Contents 📖
"This is a game of military chicken, so the Ukrainians are pushing on in Kursk hoping that the Russians will crumble in say Prokrosk, and the Russians are pushing in Prokrosk hoping that the Ukrainians will crumble in Kursk."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War Frontline Update for 29/07/2024. He mentions that the mapping might be slightly outdated as he prepared it the previous evening. Jonathan reminds viewers that both Andrew Perpetua and Suriat Map likely have updated maps available. He also reminds viewers to check the key on the screen if they are unfamiliar with the lines on his map.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kursk Counteroffensive and Prokrosk Advance: A Game of Military Chicken
🎦 00:26-05:24⏩
Jonathan analyses the current frontline situation, framing it as a game of military chicken between Ukrainian forces and Russian forces, illustrating this through analysis of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk and the Russian advance near Prokrosk.
- Jonathan highlights the concerns about Russia's accelerating advances in the Prokrosk region, contrasting it with the apparent slowdown of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, suggesting a strategic dilemma for the Ukrainian armed forces as to where to deploy their reserves.
- Jonathan posits that the situation in Kursk and Prokrosk represents a strategic dilemma for both sides: The Ukrainians hope for a Russian collapse in Prokrosk while pushing in Kursk and the Russians, conversely, hope for a Ukrainian collapse in Kursk while pushing in Prokrosk. This creates a tense standoff where each side is waiting for the other to make a mistake.
- The Russians are reported to have amassed a significant force of around 30,000 troops in and around Kursk, indicating a determined effort to counter the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- Jonathan acknowledges the fluidity of the situation, emphasizing the need for further analysis and observation as events unfold.
Ukrainian Fortifications and Russian Claims in Kursk
🎦 05:24-06:15⏩
- Jonathan examines the Ukrainian fortifications south of Kurchatov, Kursk, and the border fortification network, indicating ongoing Ukrainian efforts to fortify and hold their positions in the region.
- The ongoing fighting around Koronovo is noted, highlighting the contested nature of the area and the Ukrainians' efforts to make advances there.
Belgorod Incursion Rumours
🎦 06:15-07:39⏩
Jonathan addresses rumours circulating among Russian milbloggers, who claimed that Ukrainian forces had breached Russian defences in the Belgorod region, particularly around Shebechino, Chansk, and Nova Tavolzhanka. He casts doubt on the accuracy of these claims, suggesting that while there may have been some Ukrainian pressure in those areas, the situation remains unclear due to conflicting reports. Jonathan emphasises the need for further confirmation and analysis to determine the veracity of these claims.
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Ukrainian FPV Drone Operations on the Rilsk-Galushkovka Highway
🎦 07:39-08:18⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces are successfully using First Person View (FPV) drones to control the Rilsk-Galushkovka highway, a key logistical route for Russian forces.
- This tactic allows the Ukrainians to disrupt Russian logistics and troop movements, even at a significant distance from the front lines, demonstrating their ability to adapt and innovate in their use of drone technology.
General Syrsky's Assessment of the Kursk Offensive
🎦 08:18-09:46⏩
- Jonathan cites General Syrsky, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, reporting that Ukrainian forces have captured 1,294 square kilometers of territory and liberated 100 settlements in the Kursk region.
- Syrsky also confirms that 594 Russian servicemen have been taken prisoner during the offensive. Jonathan notes that this number was initially reported as 600 and acknowledges the update.
- Despite acknowledging the Ukrainian gains, Jonathan highlights the pro-Russian perspective of the military mapper "Suriat Maps." "Suriat Maps" contends that the Ukrainian Kursk offensive, while achieving some initial strategic objectives, may have inadvertently benefited Russia by diverting Ukrainian resources from the Donbas region, potentially jeopardising the defence of Ukrainian national territory.
- Jonathan acknowledges the potential validity of the pro-Russian view while remaining cautiously optimistic about the overall impact of the Kursk offensive, emphasizing that it successfully returned the discussion about Ukraine to the global stage and generated significant media coverage, indicating a shift in the information landscape surrounding the conflict.
Prokrosk Frontline Analysis
🎦 09:46-10:34⏩
- Jonathan acknowledges contrasting viewpoints regarding the reasons behind Russian gains in the Prokrosk region.
- He references military analyst Andrew Perpetua, who argues that the Russian advances stem from superior training, Non-Commissioned Officer (NCO) competency, and effective use of fortifications rather than a simple numerical advantage in manpower and equipment.
- Jonathan contrasts Perpetua's assessment with the view that the situation in Prokrosk is indeed a "personnel chicken" scenario, where the Ukrainians might be holding back reserves for a strategic countermove.
Ukrainian Strike on Railway in Lugov, Kursk
🎦 10:34-11:15⏩
- Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian strike targeting a railway in Lugov, Kursk, impacting Russian logistics.
- The strike, according to local media reports, caused damage to two residential buildings and a warehouse.
- The attack on the railway infrastructure underscores the Ukrainian strategy of targeting Russian logistical capabilities, aiming to disrupt the flow of supplies and reinforcements to the front lines.
Analysis of Frontline Changes and Mapping Discrepancies
🎦 11:15-12:52⏩
- Jonathan examines frontline changes and mapping discrepancies between different sources, particularly concerning the situation around Koronovo and the extent of Ukrainian control in the area.
- He observes a significant difference in the depicted control zones between the maps of Andrew Perpetua and Suriat Maps, particularly around Alexandrovka, northeast of Koronovo.
- The discrepancies between the maps underscore the challenges of obtaining accurate and up-to-date information in the fog of war, where conflicting claims and limited visibility contribute to uncertainties about the situation on the ground.
- Despite the discrepancies, Jonathan emphasizes that Ukraine remains active in the Kursk region, solidifying their positions and seeking opportunities to advance.
Russian Advance in Chaziar
🎦 12:52-15:19⏩
- Jonathan highlights a concerning development in Chaziar, where a Ukrainian military spokesperson acknowledged that Russian forces now control 40% of the town.
- This revelation, sourced from Ukrainian officials, contradicts previous assessments and raises concerns about the situation on the ground. Jonathan emphasizes the strategic significance of Chaziar due to its elevated position, making it a crucial point for controlling the surrounding area.
- He expresses his concern over the lack of corresponding changes in the available mapping data and the potential for the situation in Chaziar to worsen unnoticed.
Frontline Developments: Turetsk, New York, and Prokrosk
🎦 15:19-16:42⏩
- Jonathan provides an update on frontline developments in other sectors, particularly the Russian advances in Turetsk and New York.
- In Turetsk, the Russians have managed to advance into the town's outer suburbs and secure positions in high-rise buildings to the north, consolidating their control over the area.
- Similarly, the Russians have established a strong presence in New York, further solidifying their control over this strategically important location.
- Jonathan notes the rapid pace of the Russian advance in the Prokrosk direction, observing that they have gained significant ground quickly.
Ukrainian Retreat in Donbas: Intentional Manoeuvre or Desperation?
🎦 16:42-17:57⏩
- Jonathan raises questions about the suspiciously fast retreat of Ukrainian forces from Donbas, as observed by Russian sources.
- He questions whether this retreat is part of a deliberate Ukrainian strategy, perhaps to lure Russian forces into a trap, or if it indicates a more desperate situation for Ukrainian defenders.
- The rapid pace of the retreat, coupled with the Ukrainians' apparent reluctance to deploy reserves, fuels speculation about the reasons behind this tactical decision.
- Jonathan highlights a sense of uncertainty and concern regarding the situation, particularly given the historical context of Russia's re-entry into Kharkiv Oblast in May 2024.
Analysis of Prokrosk’s Significance and Potential Fall
🎦 17:57-23:23⏩
- Jonathan discusses the strategic importance of Prokrosk, citing analysis by Tatarigami, emphasizing its role as a crucial logistical hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region. He points out its significance as a vital railway junction and road juncture, highlighting that its loss would severely hamper the resupply of Ukrainian troops across a wide area.
- The loss of Prokrosk would leave only Kramatorsk as the sole remaining logistical hub of similar importance in the Donbas region, putting immense pressure on the Ukrainians to maintain control of it.
- Jonathan further underscores the political implications of Prokrosk’s potential fall, noting that its proximity to the Dnipro Oblast border could embolden Putin to push further into Ukrainian territory. He draws parallels with Russia’s previous actions in Kharkiv Oblast, suggesting that historical precedent raises concerns about Putin’s willingness to respect territorial boundaries.
- He analyses satellite imagery, citing the OSINT group Blackbird Group, revealing that Ukrainian defensive lines established after the fall of Avdiivka have been compromised in several areas, further escalating concerns about the viability of defending Prokrosk.
- He highlights a difference in opinion regarding the factors contributing to the situation in Prokrosk. While some experts, like Andrew Perpetua, believe it's not solely a manpower issue, Tatarigami argues that the shortage of manpower to adequately man the existing fortifications, regardless of their quality, poses a severe threat to the defence of the town.
- He posits that while the loss of Prokrosk is not a foregone conclusion, the current balance of forces and the speed of the Russian advance makes it an increasingly likely outcome.
- He suggests that Ukrainian hopes of leveraging the autumn weather to slow the Russian advance might be overly optimistic.
Southern Frontline Update: Russian Gains Near Vuhledar
🎦 23:23-25:41⏩
- Jonathan shifts focus to the southern frontline, reporting significant Russian gains, particularly their capture of the entirety of Volodymyrivka, a strategically important town on the road between Vuhledar and the north.
- He highlights the speed at which the Russians have advanced in this sector, raising concerns about the ability of Ukrainian forces to hold the line.
- The loss of Volodymyrivka and the Russians’ control over the road severely limits Ukrainian logistical options, forcing them to reconsider the strategic value of holding Vuhledar.
- Jonathan speculates that the Ukrainians might choose to abandon Vuhledar due to its diminished logistical importance following the loss of the road.
Wrap Up
🎦 25:41-25:49⏩
- Jonathan concludes the update by inviting viewers to share their perspectives on the evolving situation and the complex strategic calculations involved in the Kursk and Prokrosk sectors.
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