Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Marsalek, Austria-Russia Relationship, & +ve Sum Game
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers and explains this will be an "extra nuggets and tidbits" episode. He apologises that there may not be a map update today as JR, who usually prepares them, is unwell with COVID.
US Defence Spending & Ukraine: A Positive Sum Game
🎦 01:45-13:05⏩
Jonathan discusses a podcast episode featuring Michael Weiss. They argue that US support for Ukraine, while framed by some as detrimental, is actually beneficial to the US economy. Points discussed include:
- Job Creation: Military aid often involves sending older equipment to Ukraine, with the US then replenishing its stock with newer models. This boosts the US defence industry and creates jobs.
- Revitalising the US Military: The process of sending aid and restocking modernises the US military, a stated goal of many who oppose the aid.
- NATO Burden-Sharing: European defence spending is increasing, partly driven by the war. Many European nations are now meeting the 2% GDP target for defence spending.
- Shifting Dynamics: Some European diplomats believe they need to become more self-reliant in terms of defence, given the potential for a change in US policy.
Jonathan argues that, given these benefits, opposition to US aid for Ukraine seems to be rooted in misunderstanding or simply a desire to oppose.
The Complexities of Measuring Support for Ukraine
🎦 13:05-14:23⏩
Jonathan challenges the simple metric of the 2% GDP defence spending target for NATO members. He argues that it doesn't account for the full range of support being provided to Ukraine, such as:
- Refugee Assistance: Countries like Poland and Germany have taken in a large number of Ukrainian refugees, incurring significant costs.
- Supporting Ukrainian Infrastructure: Aid to maintain energy grids and other infrastructure is vital for Ukraine's war effort but often falls outside of traditional "defence" spending.
He suggests a broader assessment of support is needed, one that considers a country's GDP, population, and overall contributions to Ukraine.
Effectiveness of Bradley Fighting Vehicles
🎦 14:23-16:40⏩
Jonathan cites reports from a German source on the effectiveness of US-supplied M2 Bradley fighting vehicles in Ukraine. Key points:
- Significant Impact: A single Bradley has reportedly been able to destroy entire Russian units in some instances.
- Technological Superiority: The Bradley's advanced optics, powerful 25mm cannon, and TOW missile system are praised.
- Maintenance Requirements: Jonathan notes that the Bradley requires more maintenance than simpler Soviet-era vehicles, but this is a minor drawback compared to its benefits.
Jan Marsalek: Austrian Businessman and Alleged Russian Agent
🎦 16:40-29:39⏩
This segment is a deep dive into the case of Jan Marsalek, a fugitive Austrian businessman with alleged ties to Russian intelligence.
- Early Life & Family History: Jonathan introduces Marsalek and notes his grandfather was also suspected of being a Russian agent.
- Austria: A Hub for Russian Espionage: Austria has a long history of Russian intelligence activity, dating back to the Cold War. Its laws, international organisations, and energy dependence on Russia make it an attractive target.
- Wirecard Scandal: Marsalek was COO of Wirecard, a German payment processing company. He disappeared in 2020 after the company collapsed due to a massive accounting fraud.
- Alleged Espionage Activities: Investigations by Bellingcat and others allege that Marsalek was a Russian agent who used Wirecard to funnel money to Russian intelligence and Wagner PMC operations.
- Links to Poisoning of Sergei Skripal: Marsalek allegedly obtained and shared classified information about the poisoning of Sergei Skripal, a former Russian intelligence officer, in the UK.
- Continued Russian Ties: Marsalek is suspected to be living in Dubai and reorganising Russian operations in Africa, potentially even taking over Wagner PMC. Jonathan expresses his disgust at Marsalek's actions and the need for him to be brought to justice.
TVP World Shutdown and Polish Politics
🎦 30:17-33:02⏩
Jonathan addresses the recent shutdown of TVP World, Poland's English-language news channel, by Donald Tusk, the new Polish Prime Minister.
- TVP World's Coverage: Jonathan acknowledges TVP World's excellent reporting on the war in Ukraine, but also notes it was seen as a mouthpiece for the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS).
- Propaganda Concerns: A Polish viewer comments that TVP World's non-Ukraine coverage was heavily biased, prompting Jonathan to clarify that while the channel did good work on Ukraine, it also had a clear pro-PiS agenda.
- Tusk's Motivation: Jonathan believes Tusk shut down TVP World to regain control of the narrative from PiS and promote a more objective media landscape.
Democratic Backsliding in Central Europe
🎦 33:02-33:07⏩
Jonathan sees Tusk's actions as a positive sign for both Ukraine and the EU, contrasting Poland's situation with the democratic backsliding seen in Hungary and Slovakia.
A Touching Moment of Ukrainian Resilience
🎦 34:07-35:59⏩
Jonathan shows a heart-warming video of a wounded Ukrainian soldier being helped by a street vendor who gives him food. Jonathan contrasts this compassion with reports of mistreatment of wounded Russian soldiers, highlighting the difference in societal attitudes.
Wrap Up
🎦 35:59-36:21⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and sends his best wishes to JR for a speedy recovery.
"Austria is more of an issue within Europe than I had previously given them credit for being."
