Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"The Russians are afraid of mobilizing because it would be politically…could be suicidal for Putin."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers back to the channel and acknowledges the sounds of packing as he prepares to leave his holiday destination.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Russian Losses
🎦 00:28-02:25⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses from the previous day. Key figures include:
- 1,120 personnel
- 5 tanks
- 15 troop carrying AFVs
- 48 artillery systems (double the daily average)
- 4 multiple launch rocket systems (high)
- 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems (high)
- 55 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 17 pieces of special equipment (very high).
Jonathan notes a claim about the loss of an S-400 Triumph system, which would be a significant blow to the Russians if true.
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Andrew Perpetua's Analysis: Comparing Losses
🎦 02:25-05:19⏩
Jonathan analyses Andrew Perpetua's data, revealing that both sides experienced similar combat losses, though Russia might have lost slightly more.
- He points out that while Ukraine lost equipment, including a T-64 tank, a damaged BMP, and several APCs and MRAPs, none of these losses were irreplaceable.
- He highlights that the high percentage of destroyed and damaged equipment on both sides signifies the intensity of the fighting.
Russian Equipment Losses: Details and Analysis
🎦 05:19-05:41⏩
Jonathan provides a breakdown of specific Russian equipment losses, including:
- An electronic warfare system
- An MT-12 Rapira artillery piece
- A BM-21 multiple launch rocket system
- A T-90M tank
- A T-80BV tank
- Several IFVs and APCs.
Jonathan observes that an increasing number of Russian vehicles have been captured during the Ukrainian advance in Kursk.
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Update from John Hardy: Ukrainian POW Numbers
🎦 05:41-06:46⏩
Jonathan cites John Hardy, reporting that a Ukrainian official informed the Wall Street Journal that Ukraine captured 2,000 Russian POWs in Kursk Oblast within a few days. The Financial Times corroborates this, suggesting hundreds are being added daily. Jonathan acknowledges the logistical challenge of processing such a large number of POWs but notes its strategic advantage for Ukraine in prisoner exchanges and the potential for fuelling discontent within Russia.
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Rumoured Ukrainian S-400 Destruction: Awaiting Confirmation
🎦 06:46-07:33⏩
Jonathan addresses the rumour, originally from a Ukrainian source, that a Russian S-400 air defence system was destroyed. While awaiting visual confirmation, he highlights the significance of such a loss for the Russians.
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Ukrainian Resistance and Attrition Warfare
🎦 07:33-08:28⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces are effectively repelling larger Russian attacks in various areas, including Vuhledar and Had Kurokova, highlighting the ongoing attrition warfare. He stresses the importance of inflicting maximum losses on the Russians for every meter of land conceded.
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Ukrainian Drone Warfare: Targeting Russian Supply Lines
🎦 08:28-09:34⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian FPV drone attacks targeting critical Russian supply lines along the E38 highway in Kursk Oblast, particularly between Rilsk and Lugov. He points out the strategic significance of these attacks, disrupting Russian logistics.
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Analysis of Damaged S-300PT System: Decoy or Ukrainian Loss?
🎦 09:34-11:16⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of a damaged 5P85-1 transporter erector launcher, potentially for an S-300PT air defence system.
- He cites War Vehicle Tracker's observations, who, while often criticised for being pro-Russian, raises suspicions about the footage and questions whether the target was indeed an S-300PT system.
- Jonathan acknowledges the increasing use of decoys by both sides and their effectiveness in wasting enemy munitions.
Fire and Explosion at Trans-Siberian Railway: Potential Sabotage
🎦 11:16-12:12⏩
Jonathan reports a fire and explosion at a traction substation on the Trans-Siberian Railway in Marinsk, Kemerovo region. While attributing the incident to an accident, he doesn't rule out sabotage, highlighting the vulnerability of such infrastructure.
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Explosions at Petrochemical Plant: Incident Details and Analysis
🎦 12:12-13:07⏩
Jonathan discusses explosions at a petrochemical plant in Sterlitamak, resulting in three injuries. He cites Russian media attributing the incident to an overhead gas pipeline fire but questions the possibility of it being struck.
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Overnight Strikes: Ukrainian Air Defence Success
🎦 13:07-13:50⏩
Jonathan reports a relatively quiet night in terms of major strikes, with no Russian missiles launched into Ukraine. He highlights the Ukrainian air defence's success in intercepting all 11 attacking drones across various regions, maintaining their impressive 100% interception rate.
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Rostov Oil Depot Fire: Update and Significance
🎦 13:50-15:18⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the Russian oil depot fire in Rostov Oblast, which was struck by Ukrainian drones two days prior. He notes the fire's continued burning despite the deployment of over 250 firefighters and three firefighting trains, indicating significant damage. He adds that this oil depot was likely a key supplier for the Russian army.
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Third Bridge Hit in Kursk: Impact on Russian Logistics
🎦 15:18-16:35⏩
Jonathan reports the destruction of a third bridge over the Seim River in the Kursk region. While a pontoon bridge and a partially damaged bridge remain, heavy vehicle movement is significantly hampered. This disruption to Russian logistics could leave up to 700 Russian troops stranded south of the river.
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JDAM Strikes in Tekkino: Targeting Russian Positions
🎦 16:35-17:21⏩
Jonathan discusses videos showing JDAM strikes on Russian positions in Tetkino, a border outpost that has been consistently targeted with JDAMs and HIMARS. He notes the strategic or tactical importance of the buildings destroyed.
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Environmental Impact of the War: Ukraine's Minister Speaks Out
🎦 17:21-17:50⏩
Jonathan highlights the environmental damage caused by the war, citing Ukraine's Minister of Environmental Protection's statement that the cost exceeds $60 billion. The Minister emphasizes the consequences extend beyond Ukraine's borders to Moldova, Romania, and the world due to greenhouse gas emissions.
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Russian Military Inertia and Fears of Mobilisation
🎦 17:50-19:02⏩
- Jonathan discusses Russian commentator Anatoly Nesmiyan's analysis that the Russian army, while unable to halt the Ukrainian breakthrough in Kursk, continues its Donbas offensive merely out of inertia.
- He links this to the Russian government's reluctance to mobilize, fearing the potential political and social backlash. Jonathan compares this situation to the "shagreen skin effect," where solving one problem creates several new ones.
Looting in Glushkovo: Akhmat Unit Caught on CCTV
🎦 19:02-19:59⏩
Jonathan shows CCTV footage of Chechen Akhmat unit members looting a mobile phone shop in Glushkovo. This incident exemplifies the lawlessness and demoralization within Russian forces, even extending to looting in areas they are supposed to be defending.
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Russian Troop Movements: From Vovchansk to Kursk
🎦 19:59-20:33⏩
Jonathan reports, according to Ukrainian sources, that Russia has redeployed its airborne forces from Vovchansk to Kursk, potentially indicating a weakening Russian presence in Vovchansk. This redeployment highlights the impact of the Ukrainian advances in Kursk on other areas of the front line.
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ISW: Potential Russian Counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast
🎦 20:33-21:09⏩
Jonathan cites the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which suggests that Russia may be preparing a counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast, potentially involving up to 20,000 troops. He questions the feasibility of such a counteroffensive, given the potential strain on Russian resources.
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Russian Rumours of Ukrainian Offensives: Zaporizhia and Crimea
🎦 21:09-22:27⏩
Jonathan discusses rumours from Russian sources about impending Ukrainian offensives in the Zaporizhia region and Crimea. He dismisses these claims as unlikely, viewing them as potential disinformation. He notes Russian claims that Ukraine might possess a larger military force than they are letting on. He expresses scepticism, believing that Ukraine likely faces genuine manpower challenges.
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Russian Mobilisation: Doubling Troops in Ukraine?
🎦 22:27-23:25⏩
Jonathan addresses rumours that Russia is planning a significant troop mobilization to bolster its forces in Ukraine. He cites a statement by Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Defence, Ivan Gavrilyuk, who claims that Russia aims to double its troop presence to 800,000 by the end of the year. He expresses his anticipation of such a move, highlighting the political risks associated with a mass mobilization for Putin.
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Elon Musk and Ramzan Kadyrov: Cybertruck Controversy
🎦 23:25-25:11⏩
Jonathan revisits the controversy surrounding Elon Musk and Ramzan Kadyrov's alleged Cybertruck gift. He details how Musk initially denied donating a Cybertruck to Kadyrov, only to delete the tweet later. This incident sparks speculation and raises questions about Musk's stance on the conflict and his relationship with the Russian warlord.
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Wrap up
🎦 25:11-26:16⏩
Jonathan signs off, thanking his viewers for their support. He acknowledges individuals like Mark, Olina, Frank, and especially Ronald van der Stam for their contributions. He mentions upcoming fundraising efforts and expresses his appreciation for JR’s work. He ends by expressing his intention to resume regular updates the following day.
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