Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update, Kharkiv Offensive Update
Table of Contents 📖
"It's not wise to build trenches under mortar, drone and artillery fire right next to the border"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:23⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers and apologises for the lack of frontline updates, explaining he's had to combine 2 days updates into one. He also apologises for the late release of his previous video, explaining he had his (58th!) Covid booster. He then shares an anecdote about encountering 2 Ukraine supporters: one in a pharmacy queue and another driving a Tesla in his village - highlighting solidarity with Ukraine.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Frontline Overview - Kharkiv, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Robotyne
🎦 02:23-11:06⏩
Jonathan explains that the maps he is using are from 3 sources: JR, Andrew Perpetua and Syriac Maps. He notes that there is a huge amount of Russian activity with significant gains in the Kharkiv region - to such an extent he's had to remove the gray zone lines from the maps for clarity. Jonathan points out that the Russian advance may be an attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces, forcing them to redeploy from other areas (such as Sumy) according to Ukrainian intelligence.
- In the Vovchansk area, there is heavy fighting with Russians having made significant gains, although Ukrainian forces are attempting to counter-attack.
- Around Chaviv Yar, Russian forces have captured a trench north of the canal micro district, putting them in control of the railway line there.
- Further south, towards Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Krasnohorivka, there are significant Russian gains across the front line. Jonathan highlights the Russian advance across the Derna River as significant as it removes a natural barrier for Russian troops, providing them with access for mechanised equipment to advance further west.
Robotyne - Russians Capture First Line of Ukrainian Fortifications
🎦 11:06-18:11⏩
Jonathan provides more detail about the situation in the Robotyne sector in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where the Russians have made significant gains. Jonathan explains that the three mappers (JR, Andrew Perpetua and Syriac Maps) are in agreement that Russia now controls almost all of the first line of Ukrainian Fortifications (the Surovikin line). Jonathan points out that Ukrainian forces seem to have been pushed back as their counter-offensive lost momentum, and ran into issues with ammunition and personnel.
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Russia Recaptures Island in Dnipro River Delta
🎦 18:11-20:36⏩
Jonathan describes the situation in the Dnipro River Delta where Russian forces appear to have recaptured a strategically important island that had been under Ukrainian control. Despite the Ukrainian General Staff's earlier announcement of their success in taking the island, Russian forces, using jetskis, have managed to regain control, even raising a Russian flag there, leading Syriac maps to change their mapping of the area. Jonathan questions the strategic value of the island given the effort the Russians have put in to retaking it and suggests it might be to prevent Ukraine using the waterways.
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Analysis of Russian Troop and Equipment Numbers and Ukrainian Fortifications
🎦 20:36-27:52⏩
Jonathan references OSINT defender who claims that Russian forces have moved significant numbers of troops and equipment across the border in the Kharkiv region. Whilst the details can't be verified, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces confirm that Russia is using significant forces in the area. He goes on to discuss claims by Tatarigami that Ukrainian forces have been using 'kill zones' to inflict heavy casualties. There is some debate about the preparedness of Ukrainian defences with some suggesting a lack of fortifications. Jonathan shares Tatarigami's analysis which, whilst acknowledging the presence of trenches and fortifications in areas such as Krasnoyarsk, highlights the lack of fortifications around Vovchansk. Tatarigami argues that the presence or absence of fortifications doesn't seem to have impacted the outcome and that the issues may be related to the inability of Ukraine forces to react to the Russian advances. Jonathan finishes by saying that trenches are unlikely to be dug too close to the border due to the risk of artillery/drone/mortar fire.
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Wrap up
🎦 27:52-27:56⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share his content.
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