Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News, US Working to Help Russia
Table of Contents 📖
"So I personally think that Europe should just cut off the US. Say to Ukraine, don't allow the US to have your rare earth metals. Just don't even think about continued aid for them. Just sod them. We'll do this ourselves. And by the way, US, you can have all your bases back, and you have no power in Europe anymore. And you don't get to say what goes on in Europe. I think we just cut America loose."
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:47⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics and introduces the Ukraine War News Update for 10th February 2025.
- He mentions feeling unwell but is pushing through to deliver the content due to its importance and volume.
- The video will be split into sections, with geopolitics in this part and peace deals/politics potentially in the third section.
- He acknowledges that some viewers dislike political discussions but explains its relevance when discussing the war's end.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses: Personnel, Tanks, AFVs, and Artillery
🎦 00:47-01:27⏩
- Jonathan begins with the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day.
- Personnel losses are reported at 1,170, described as relatively low but still significantly high in the context of the entire war.
- Nine tanks and 16 AFVs are reported, with AFVs being slightly below the daily average.
- Artillery system losses are higher than average at 35.
Trends in Russian Losses: Drones, Vehicles, and Artillery
🎦 01:27-02:45⏩
- Jonathan references a viewer conversation on Twitter about the importance of trend analysis in loss statistics, especially 7-day and 30-day averages.
- He refers to the DELS daily data presentation (available in the video description) to examine these trends.
- Darker red colours on the daily stats indicate worse days for Russian losses.
- Currently, 109 vehicle and fuel tank losses are considered medium pink, which would have been considered "insane" earlier in the war, indicating the scale of losses has changed perspective.
Record High Drone Losses for Russia
🎦 02:45-03:34⏩
- The 30-day rolling average for Russian drone losses is at an all-time high.
- Russia is sending large numbers of drones every night, with 83 fired the previous night, considered relatively low compared to previous surges.
- Drone statistics are calculated with a cut-off in the middle of the night for daily reporting.
- In the last 24 hours, 137 drones were lost, significantly higher than the 30-day rolling average of 88 and the 7-day rolling average of 104.
- The mean average for drone losses over the entire war is 22.74, highlighting the recent surge.
Increased Drone Production in Russia
🎦 03:34-04:15⏩
- The high drone loss numbers are attributed to increased production of Shahid drones by Russia.
- Initially, Russia relied on Iranian-produced drones, which had to be shipped from Iran.
- Now, Russia is manufacturing drones domestically at a "huge rate," posing a significant challenge for Ukraine.
- The rolling average for drone losses is consistently being exceeded.
Record Vehicle and Fuel Tank Losses; Artillery Losses Increasing
🎦 04:15-05:25⏩
- Vehicle and fuel tank losses also have a record 30-day rolling average of 103.47.
- Artillery losses are showing signs of increasing, although not yet evident in the 30-day rolling average trend line.
- The blue line on the DELS data presentation, representing total artillery losses, shows a steeper incline, indicating increased losses recently.
- A previous "purple patch" for Ukrainian artillery strikes had dipped, but is now trending upwards again.
Low Russian Anti-Aircraft System Losses
🎦 05:25-06:06⏩
- Anti-aircraft warfare system losses for Russia are not significant.
- Jonathan speculates that Ukraine has successfully targeted Russian anti-aircraft systems previously, causing them to retreat further back.
- He wonders if this might allow Ukraine to take more risks with its airframes, suggesting a potential shift in air warfare dynamics.
- However, three anti-aircraft systems were destroyed in the latest figures, which is positive news.
High Vehicle and Fuel Tank Losses Indicate Russian Tactics
🎦 06:06-06:25⏩
- The high losses of vehicles and fuel tanks, alongside relatively lower APC losses, suggest Russia is using these vehicles for attacks and movements to the contact line instead of APCs.
- Jonathan suggests this tactic reveals information about Russian strategies and vulnerabilities.
Russian Soldier Morale Low in Siversky Direction
🎦 06:25-07:29⏩
- In the Siversky direction, Ukrainian forces captured numerous Russian soldiers who exhibited low morale and a lack of will to fight.
- Ruslan Pidugny, commander of the Antares drone battalion, reported stopping small Russian group advances.
- Captured prisoners cited heavy losses as a reason for their low morale and lack of desire to fight.
- Jonathan notes this is anecdotal evidence consistent across the front line.
- He cautions that low morale alone may not be decisive, as barrier troops, commanders, and potential imprisonment for retreat can still compel soldiers to fight.
Russian Flag Hoisting in Turetsk: PR Narrative
🎦 07:29-08:42⏩
- Andrew Perpetua reports Russians hoisting flags in Turetsk.
- Jonathan recalls a previous video about Russians attempting to raise a flag at a mine in Turetsk, which was then targeted by Ukrainian drones.
- Perpetua suggests the flag hoisting is a PR move to change the media narrative, implying Russia captured Turetsk two weeks prior but delayed releasing footage to control media cycles.
- The footage is likely old and intended to distract from current Russian struggles, according to Perpetua.
- Perpetua suggests asking "what exactly they're trying to hide" by releasing this footage now.
Ukrainian Gains Outpace Russian Advances
🎦 08:42-09:31⏩
- Jonathan mentions his previous five-day frontline update where he observed that Suriyak Maps showed more Ukrainian gains (blue pins) than Russian gains (red pins).
- This marks the first time in a long period that Ukrainian advances have surpassed Russian advances.
- Claims suggest that the intensity of Russian advances in the Prokrosk area, previously their most successful region, has decreased.
Is Russian Offensive Culminating?
🎦 09:31-10:18⏩
- Jonathan questions whether the reduced Russian advances and reported struggles with equipment and personnel indicate a culmination of their offensive.
- He acknowledges being criticised by trolls for suggesting Russian culmination, but defends his analysis based on data showing limited Russian progress over five days and reports of Russian difficulties.
- He concedes that Russia might be taking a "breather" and could resume advances, but also posits that current struggles could signify a genuine culmination.
Russian Counteroffensive Attempt in Kursk Region Repelled
🎦 10:18-10:54⏩
- In the Kursk region, Russian forces attempted a counteroffensive near Chukoskaya Konopelka.
- This area is where Ukrainian forces had previously advanced into Russian territory, taking Chukoskaya Konopelka and attempting to take Ulanok and Fanasivka.
- The Russian counteroffensive was repelled by paratroopers from the Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade.
- Le Figaro reports on Ukrainian counterattacks to slow Russian advances in Kursk, Turetsk, and Prokrosk regions.
Ukrainian Counterattacks Aim to Exhaust and Disperse Russian Forces
🎦 10:54-11:25⏩
- Ukraine has launched counterattacks to slow down Russian troops and gain time.
- Jonathan suggests Ukrainians are likely waiting for Russian forces to become exhausted before launching counterattacks, rather than attacking when Russia is strongest.
- The goal is to force Russia to disperse their efforts and resources.
Fires in Krasnodar Region, Russia
🎦 11:25-11:47⏩
- Tim White reports "another Russia on fire incident" in the Krasnodar region.
- Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted Krasnodar.
- A fire near Sochi destroyed a building, with the cause unconfirmed but considered suspicious.
- These fires add to a pattern of incidents within Russia.
Ukrainian Powerlifting Champion Arrested by FSB in Russia
🎦 11:47-12:39⏩
- A Ukrainian powerlifting champion, Yulia Lemeschenko, 42, was arrested by the FSB in Voronezh, Russia.
- She is accused of being part of a group of four women planning terrorist attacks to reclaim Ukrainian nationality after moving to Russia.
- Russian authorities released footage of a staged apartment raid, purportedly showing bomb-making materials.
- Jonathan expresses scepticism about the staging of the FSB footage.
Tanker Sinks in Ust Luga Port: Environmental Risk
🎦 12:39-13:07⏩
- The tanker Koala has sunk in Ust Luga port, carrying 130,000 tons of cargo.
- Initial reports suggested explosions in the engine room, raising suspicion of sabotage.
- Search dogs are still reportedly on board, suggesting it's not fully submerged.
- Tim Hermanson calls it an "environmental time bomb" and criticises "one-hole, rust-bucket, shadow-free shipping" that funds Russia's war.
EU Action Against Russian Shadow Fleet Imminent
🎦 13:07-13:12⏩
- Jonathan mentions that the EU is expected to take action against the Russian shadow fleet, a point he will return to later in the video.
Ukraine Achieves 100% Air Defence Interception Rate
🎦 13:12-13:53⏩
- Ukraine achieved a 100% interception rate against Russian distance strikes overnight, which is positive news after recent inconsistent performance.
- Of 83 drones launched, 61 were shot down, and 22 were attributed to electronic warfare or decoys.
Drone Debris Damage in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava
🎦 13:53-14:41⏩
- Despite the high interception rate, drone debris caused damage in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava regions.
- A fire in Sumy and damage in Kharkiv and Poltava resulted from falling debris.
- In Poltava, drone wreckage caused fires that damaged up to 30 dachas (holiday homes).
Massive Fire in Kharkiv Region
🎦 14:41-14:54⏩
- Significant damage occurred in Kharkiv, where emergency services took five hours to control a large fire.
- The blaze was at an agricultural enterprise in Vovchansk, close to the front line.
Kramatorsk Hit by Glide Bomb: Casualties and Damage
🎦 14:54-15:28⏩
- Kramatorsk was struck by a Russian aerial glide bomb, resulting in one death and nine injuries.
- An apartment building, a family medicine clinic, and an educational institution were damaged.
- Kramatorsk is now more vulnerable due to Russian advances towards Chazyvyar, bringing it closer to the front lines.
Attacks in Other Donetsk Region Locations
🎦 15:28-16:04⏩
- Ukrainian officials reported 13 other attacks in the free part of the Donetsk region.
- Locations damaged include Siversk and Sviatohirsk.
Ukrainian Activity on Dnipro's Left Bank in Kherson Region
🎦 16:04-16:31⏩
- Ukraine is focusing attention on the Russian-occupied left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region.
- Nocturnal video footage showed "glowing and burning," indicating strikes and explosions.
- Details of the damage in the Kherson area are expected to emerge later.
Afipsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai Hit
🎦 16:31-17:11⏩
- The Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, with a capacity of 6.25 million tonnes per year, was hit.
- The extent of the damage is unknown.
- Drones targeting the refinery reportedly went off course and hit residential areas nearby.
- Tim White confirms an explosion in Afipsky near the refinery, but the exact target is still being verified.
Drone Debris on Residential Complex in Krasnodar
🎦 17:11-17:17⏩
- Russian sources report drone debris falling on the roof of a residential complex in Krasnodar.
- No injuries were reported in this incident.
Historical Ukrainian Influence in Krasnodar Region
🎦 17:17-18:30⏩
- Archive footage circulating in Russia suggests historical Ukrainian influence in the Krasnodar region.
- Locals in the footage, possibly from the 1960s-70s, discuss having Ukrainian surnames and changing them to Russian versions.
- The region is described as having a significant former Zaporozhian population and Ukrainian cultural influence.
- Jonathan draws a parallel to Belgorod, where dialects are a mix of Ukrainian and Russian, suggesting the Russia-Ukraine border region is not uniformly pro-Russian.
Russian Looting in Kursk Region
🎦 18:30-20:12⏩
- Heavy fighting is reported in the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces pushing back in some areas.
- Special Kherson Cat references previous footage from August showing Russian looting in their own shops and enterprises in Kursk region areas like Glushkovo and Koronov.
- Commercial enterprises in these areas were looted and shut down by Russian forces.
- This contrasts with Ukrainian behaviour in occupied territories, where civilians supported local businesses rather than looting.
Cultural Differences: Ukrainian Support vs. Russian Looting
🎦 20:12-20:46⏩
- Jonathan highlights a cultural difference between Ukrainians and Russians.
- Ukrainians rallied to support their businesses when invaded, while Russians are looting their own territories in Kursk.
- He acknowledges the danger of generalising about entire populations but argues that consistent war crimes and actions against their own people by Russians make such generalisations difficult to avoid.
Kursk Governor Establishes Hotline for Looting Complaints
🎦 20:46-21:30⏩
- The acting governor of Kursk region, Alexander Hinstein, has established a hotline for citizens to report looting by Russian military forces in Russian-controlled parts of the region.
- Kursk citizens have reportedly given the governor "a really rough time" at town hall meetings, expressing dissatisfaction with the situation.
- Jonathan believes the Russian handling of the Kursk incursion has been "incredibly badly mismanaged."
Ukraine's Drone Line Project Announced
🎦 21:30-24:11⏩
- President Zelensky announced the "Drone Line Project" to strengthen brigades on the front lines and deter Russian assaults.
- Five elite unmanned units are uniting to spearhead the project.
- Defence Minister Ruslan Umarov describes it as a "transformative step in modern warfare," emphasising drones' central role in combat.
- The project aims to create a 10-15 kilometre deep "kill zone" using integrated infantry and drone strike systems.
- Initial phases involve five elite regiments and brigades, including the 20th Separate Regiment, K2, and Magyar's Birds.
- The project seeks to provide constant aerial support and enhance target detection.
Concerns About Publicising Drone Line Project
🎦 24:11-24:48⏩
- Jonathan expresses concern about publicly announcing the Drone Line Project, questioning whether it gives Russia valuable information.
- He suggests Russia might adopt similar strategies.
- Despite this concern, he acknowledges the project's potential as a positive development for Ukraine, integrating infantry, drones, and the military-industrial complex.
Wall Street Journal: Russian Torture of Ukrainian POWs
🎦 24:48-25:26⏩
- The Wall Street Journal reports on systematic torture of Ukrainian POWs by Russia.
- A St. Petersburg prisons head ordered guards to "be cruel, don't pity them."
- Torture methods included beatings, electric shocks, and medical neglect leading to amputations.
- Jonathan highlights the importance of this type of journalism, especially in America, to expose Russian cruelty.
US Political System and Support for Ukraine Questioned
🎦 25:26-26:07⏩
- Jonathan expresses concern about the US political system's commitment to supporting Ukraine.
- He hints at problems "right at the top of the American political system" regarding whose side they are truly on.
- The Wall Street Journal report highlights investigations by the International Criminal Court, which is ironically sanctioned by the US.
Jonathan's Outburst: Europe Should Cut Off the US
🎦 26:07-28:49⏩
- Jonathan expresses anger and frustration towards the US, triggered by US rhetoric and actions.
- He suggests Europe should tell the US to remove all its bases and nuclear warheads from Europe.
- This outburst is prompted by perceptions that the US is:
- Insulting Europe by claiming they are not doing enough for Ukraine.
- Lying about financial contributions to Ukraine.
- Exploiting Ukraine's natural resources for reimbursement.
- Imposing tariffs on European goods.
- Jonathan argues that Europe is crucial for US power projection in the Middle East and Africa.
- He is rhetorically robust, acknowledging potential issues with his suggestion but emphasising his annoyance at US rhetoric.
US Exploiting Ukraine's Natural Resources and Insulting Europe
🎦 28:49-30:00⏩
- Jonathan continues to criticise the US, highlighting:
- US intention to discuss reimbursement for aid to Kyiv through agreements on Ukrainian natural resources.
- Discrepancy between US claims and actual European financial contributions to Ukraine.
- He advocates for Europe to "get harsh on the US" regarding these issues.
- He clarifies that his criticism is directed at the current US administration, not all US supporters and viewers.
Trump-Putin Contact and US Policy Concerns
🎦 30:00-31:34⏩
- Jonathan expresses worry about Donald Trump's contact with Putin.
- Trump is reposting Putin's claims, including Putin's statement that Europe will "stand at the feet of the master."
- Trump is amplifying tensions between the EU and the US, which Jonathan sees as deeply concerning.
US Undermining Counterterrorism and Soft Power
🎦 31:34-32:23⏩
- Jonathan lists US actions under Trump that undermine US power and global standing:
- Cutting back the CIA and FBI.
- Disbanding the kleptocracy unit and foreign influence in US elections department.
- Stopping USAID.
- Calls to shut down Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Voice of America.
- He sees these actions as detrimental to US counterterrorism, counterintelligence, and soft power projection.
Elon Musk Supports Shutting Down Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
🎦 32:23-33:27⏩
- Elon Musk agrees with shutting down Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) and Voice of America (VOA), calling them "radical left crazy people" wasting taxpayer money.
- Jonathan counters that RFE/RL played a crucial role in the collapse of communism by providing uncensored news and amplifying dissident voices.
- He highlights the importance of RFE/RL's historical legacy in promoting freedom and democracy during the Cold War and criticises the US for undermining its own legacy.
- Jane Keith comments that "if it's an enemy of Putin, it's an enemy of Musk," suggesting Musk's alignment with Putin's interests.
Trump Believes Putin Cares About Casualties: Jonathan's Outrage
🎦 33:27-34:57⏩
- The New York Post reports Trump's phone call with Putin, where Trump claimed Putin "cares about casualties" and has a plan to stop the war.
- Jonathan expresses outrage and calls Trump an "idiot" for believing Putin cares about casualties, given evidence of Russian war crimes and torture of POWs.
- He reiterates his earlier point that Europe should "cut off the US," stop US access to Ukrainian rare earth metals, and handle Ukraine aid independently.
- He suggests the US should lose its power and influence in Europe.
US Policy as Geopolitical Suicide: Handing Power to China and Russia
🎦 34:57-35:28⏩
- Jonathan argues that by cutting off aid to Ukraine, Trump is handing a "silver platter" to China to expand its influence.
- He sees this as "geopolitical suicide" at a time when Russia is weakened and China's economy is facing challenges.
- He believes the US should be "turning the screw" on Russia and China, but instead is ceding power to them.
North Korean Citizens Entering Russia Under Student Visas
🎦 35:28-36:20⏩
- North Korean citizens are entering Russia, ostensibly on student visas, but likely for construction work.
- The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing South Korean intelligence agencies (Yonhap), reports that nearly 8,000 North Koreans entered Russia under this pretext.
- This influx is attributed to a labour shortage in Russia caused by the war in Ukraine.
- Jonathan questions whether these North Koreans will ever return to North Korea after experiencing a degree of Western society in Russia.
EU Preparing to Seize Russian Shadow Fleet Tankers
🎦 36:20-37:33⏩
- The EU is preparing a major operation to seize Russian-linked tankers of shadow fleets in the Baltic Sea, according to Politico.
- New legislation will allow ships to be seized for environmental damage and damage to submarine cables and critical infrastructure.
- Jonathan approves of this action as "thinking creatively" and "good and right and proper."
- He mentions the seized Chinese ship Yiping 3 as an example of vessels unfit for purpose in shadow fleets.
Coal Prices Continue to Collapse, Hurting Russian Economy
🎦 37:33-38:08⏩
- Coal prices, representing 7.4% of Russia's exports, continue to fall.
- This is positive news for Ukraine as it weakens the Russian economy and its ability to fund the war.
- The significant drop in coal prices since 2022 will impact Russia's war effort.
Wrap up
🎦 38:08-38:49⏩
- Jonathan concludes the news update, hoping it was useful.
- He apologises for the political content, acknowledging some viewers dislike it, but justifies its inclusion due to discussions about ending the war and US disinformation.
- He reiterates that Trump administration decisions are benefiting Moscow and Beijing, which he considers "insane."
- He thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share.