Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News - Consistent Ukr Strikes
Table of Contents 📖
"Ukraine's long-range strikes were never a problem. I hope that's clear now"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another video - a Ukraine War Update News for 13th January 2025.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:10-01:31⏩
Jonathan reviews the daily Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day with the usual caveats that the figures are taken from battlefield reports.
- Personnel: 1510 (staggering number, consistently above 1300 threshold)
- Tanks: 8 (slightly below daily average)
- Troop carrying AFVs: 26 (above average)
- Artillery Systems: 37 (well above average, almost double)
- MLRS: 1
- Anti-aircraft warfare systems: 2 (good as these are high value targets)
- Drones: 183 (very high for a single day - probably includes the last two nights)
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 110 (very high)
- Special equipment: 1
Jonathan observes that many of the vehicles and fuel tanks listed could be used as combat assets, such as buggies, SUVs, unarmoured columns etc.
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North Korean Casualties in Kursk
🎦 01:31-03:23⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from South Korea about the number of North Korean casualties fighting in the Kursk Oblast:
- 3000 North Korean casualties in the Kursk blast.
- At least 300 North Korean soldiers killed and 2700 wounded, a ratio of 9:1.
- Ukrainian special forces claim to have repelled a North Korean assault in Kursk, killing 17. This may have been caught on video.
- A Ukrainian mopping-up group encountered a surviving North Korean soldier who had set an unsuccessful trap. The soldier attempted to mislead the Ukrainians and detonated a grenade to avoid capture, fatally injuring himself.
Jonathan notes that there have been reports previously that the North Koreans are not afraid to die in battle which makes them difficult to strategise against as they will charge in when you least expect it. It is similar to the issues faced when dealing with terrorists.
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Michael Kaufman on Casualty Figures
🎦 03:23-08:00⏩
Jonathan discusses a thread by Military Analyst Michael Kaufman regarding casualty figures.
- There is a lot of confusion about casualty figures and how they are estimated.
- Total casualties does not mean total losses.
- Casualty categories are:
- Killed in action
- Wounded in action
- Missing in action
- other
- The total casualty figures officially released are not representative of unrecoverable losses, but a combination of those killed in action, seriously injured, lightly injured and missing in action.
- It is safer to assume that unrecoverable casualties are significantly lower than total casualty figures - perhaps 50%. For example, of the 800,000 Russian casualties, perhaps 400,000 have returned to service.
- Jonathan notes that the Russians are known to send soldiers back to the front who should still be in hospital.
- It's important to understand that official releases usually give the top of the range.
- National estimates also diverge - the US, UK and NATO may release figures that appear to be from the same estimate pool but this may not be the case.
- In May 2022 Michael Kaufman released a thread on casualty figures which is still relevant and leverages work by C.Lawrence.
- Jonathan stands by his shorthand ratio of 1:4 killed in action to wounded in action.
- It is likely that the official figures for those Missing in Action (MIA) are significantly higher than reality and these soldiers are likely to have been killed in action. This distorts the KIA figures.
Jonathan remarks that International intelligence services are likely to rely on the Ukrainian figures for their casualty estimates as it's unlikely they have a better system. Whilst they may have access to satellite imagery they are not in a position to be able to verify the Ukrainian figures. It is possible that some of the figures released are shaded for various reasons.
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Ben Wallace on Russian Casualties
🎦 08:00-09:29⏩
Jonathan discusses comments made by former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace in an interview with Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell where he said that he expected Russian casualties in Ukraine to be around 700,000 with 250,000 dead.
- Jonathan is surprised that Ben Wallace was willing to be so specific as he should know what he's talking about.
- These figures are broadly in line with the Ukrainian General Staff figures, although the ratios of killed to wounded (2.5:1) are significantly different to other figures.
- It is thought that the Russian ratio of killed to wounded is low because they do not treat their wounded effectively so many will die who, if they had received better/timelier medical care would have survived.
Ukrainian Tank Advantage
🎦 09:29-10:23⏩
Jonathan reports that according to Forbes, for the first time since the start of the invasion, Ukraine may have a tank advantage over the Russians along some stretches of the 800 mile front line.
- This has been a long time in coming but it appears that attrition may be having a significant impact on the amount of equipment the Russians have available.
- Jonathan believes that this refers to a numerical advantage rather than an inability to use them for fear of attack by drones.
Russian BM-21 Grad Destroyed
🎦 10:23-11:13⏩
Jonathan reports on the destruction of a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher which was destroyed by a Ukrainian FPV loitering munition as it was firing its rockets.
- He jokes that he found some out-of-date sun-dried tomatoes but they didn't explode when he opened and ate them.
Russian FPV Destroys North Korean Anti-Aircraft System
🎦 11:13-11:59⏩
Jonathan reports that a video has appeared online reportedly showing a Russian FPV drone destroying a North Korean anti-aircraft system in Kursk Oblast.
- The Russians released the footage claiming that it showed the destruction of a Western artillery piece.
- This is very embarrassing for the Russians.
Russian Offensive Operations near T0504
🎦 11:59-12:32⏩
Jonathan reports that Russian forces are attacking:
- in the direction of Prokros near the Malinovska junction, trying to cut the Prokros-Kostantynivka road using T0504. This is significant as there hasn't been any movement in this area for some time, the Ukrainians had halted the Russian advance.
- Chasiv Yar, Obstuporosk in the southern Kramatorsk area.
Fiber Optic Drones
🎦 12:32-13:13⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine and Russia are increasingly using fiber optic drones.
- These drones cannot be jammed by electronic warfare systems, provide superior quality video to the operator and are undetectable by radio signals.
- However, they are costly, heavier than other drones and have a reduced payload capacity as they need to carry a large spool of cable which limits their range.
Rostov Sabotage
🎦 13:13-13:42⏩
There are unconfirmed reports that a car belonging to an army colonel in Rostov has been destroyed in an arson attack.
- The Telegram channel which published a photo of the damaged vehicle has not named the owner, but says that he is an assistant to the "Commander of Physical Training in the Southern Military District".
- It is thought that this could be Colonel Alexander Shetovsky.
Drone Attack on Ukraine
🎦 13:42-14:26⏩
Jonathan reports that there was another large scale drone attack on Ukraine overnight.
- 110 drones were used in the attack of which 78 were shot down and 31 failed to reach their target. Only one drone got through.
- Ukraine is doing an excellent job of intercepting these drones.
- Some drone wreckage fell in the Sumy, Zaporizhzhia and Zhytomyr regions.
Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russia
🎦 14:26-17:16⏩
Jonathan reports that there were drone threats overnight from Ukraine. He does not have details about specific strikes but lists the areas where they were reported:
- Tambov
- Voronezh
- Rostov
- Belgorod
- Orel
- Kursk
- Bryansk
- Engels
- Saratov
Jonathan predicted that these attacks would escalate and it's no surprise that they have increased in the run up to 20th January. Akash Maniam, an open source intelligence analyst, has remarked that these attacks have become quietly normalised and neither the Kremlin nor Western media are "screaming about World War III anymore". This normalisation is very much in Ukraine's favour as the red lines are no longer being discussed.
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Attack on the Raskia Compressor Station
🎦 17:16-17:53⏩
Two nights ago nine Ukrainian drones attacked the Raskia compressor station in the village of Gaykozor in Krasnodar Krai. The station supplies gas through the Turkstream pipeline. Russian air defences shot down all nine drones. It is thought that there was some minor damage caused to the compressor station.
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Ukrainian Attacks on Russian Targets
🎦 17:53-18:24⏩
Jonathan remarks that it was only a matter of time before Ukraine started using their drones to attack targets inside Russia. He believes this is just the start and we can expect to see further strikes on military and industrial targets, as well as command posts which are easier to hit using HIMARS and JDAMs.
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Attack on Russian Command Post in Donetsk
🎦 18:24-18:38⏩
Jonathan reports on a Ukrainian strike on a Russian command post in Donetsk. He believes it is likely to have been an aerial attack. The command post was the HQ of the Second Guards Combined Arms Army.
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Attacks on Russian Industrial/Military Sites
🎦 18:38-19:20⏩
Jonathan reports on the aftermath of a strike on several Russian targets.
- Russia claims that the targets were commercial/industrial enterprises but Ukraine says that they were disguised military sites.
- The secondary explosions at the sites suggest that Ukraine was correct.
- One of the targets was a Plastifactor warehouse in Rostov Oblast used to store reconnaissance drones. This was a joint operation by the SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) and the Ukrainian Navy.
Engels Airbase Fire
🎦 19:20-20:35⏩
Jonathan reports that the fire at Engels Airbase is still burning after six days despite Russian claims that it has been extinguished.
- The fire at the oil depot was caused by Ukrainian drones almost a week ago.
- David Himmelsbach, a commenter, provides some analysis. He points out that it is a kerosene depot which is used to fuel the aircraft. Kerosene is less viscous than oil so the fire spread easily to adjacent tanks.
- The damage caused by the fire has put the base out of commission. Modern airports store kerosene underground to prevent/limit fire damage and it is only pumped into the aircraft as needed.
- The fuel demands for the T-95 (Tu-95) are huge - similar to that of a B52 - so the Russians would need a fleet of fuel trucks to service a single bomber, something they do not have.
Increased Air Defences in Crimea
🎦 20:35-21:12⏩
Jonathan reports that the Atesh partisan group report that Russia is strengthening its air defense capabilities in Crimea and as a result, is weakening other sections of the front line.
- They are being moved from other locations.
- It is not known why but it is possible that Russia is concerned about a Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Bridge.
- Jonathan notes that there are frequent reports from Russia that missiles are being fired towards Crimea.
Owl Intercepts Russian Drone
🎦 21:12-21:24⏩
Jonathan light-heartedly reports that an owl has been filmed intercepting a Russian drone - even the wildlife is on Ukraine's side. It's not known if the owl or the drone won!
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Forced Mobilisation
🎦 21:24-22:12⏩
Jonathan reports that at least 22 Ukrainian men from the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions have been forcibly mobilised into the Russian army.
- Commenter Cheryl Whatley has said that a large number of applications to the "I want to live" project are from men who have been forced to fight for Russia. This project helps those who want to surrender to the Ukrainians.
Zelensky Suspends New Brigade Formations
🎦 22:12-23:16⏩
Jonathan takes a sip of cold tea before reporting that Zelensky has received reports about the situation with the 155th Brigade (the 155th Separate Artillery Brigade "Anne de Kyiv"). This brigade was trained by the French and there was a great deal of controversy.
- Zelensky has ordered that no new brigades are to be formed and existing units should be reinforced and strengthened instead.
- Jonathan believes that this is really significant as it shows that Zelensky is willing to make difficult decisions based on the information he is receiving.
- This is something that many people, including military analysts have been suggesting for some time.
North Korean Fighters
🎦 23:16-26:27⏩
Jonathan discusses a report by War Translators which includes comments from a Ukrainian serviceman, Volodymyr Demchenko, who shared his experience of fighting against North Korean soldiers.
- They are formidable warriors who are not afraid to die, making them extremely difficult to capture. The first North Korean POWs were not taken until the second month of their involvement in the war.
- When wounded, rather than be captured they will use a grenade to take their own life. Any soldier who is unwilling to do this will be killed by their comrades.
- They do not care about their wounded or dead and think nothing of stepping over their bodies to advance. They fight a brutal, effective form of warfare very different to the West.
- They are well trained, especially their marksmanship, proven by the number of drones they have shot down.
- Western instructors are still teaching ineffective battlefield strategies to Ukrainian recruits. It should be the other way round - NATO should be learning from the Ukrainians.
- It's time to stop listening to those who peddle good news. Those who dismissed the North Koreans have been proven wrong.
- The West does not know how to fight a modern war.
- Jonathan has always believed that the North Koreans should be taken seriously, they are well trained, well equipped and need to be defeated.
- The lack of reaction to the North Koreans is because their involvement is limited to Russia. Jonathan believes that Russia will not risk using them in Ukraine and is using the excuse that Ukraine has invaded Kursk to justify their presence there.
Russian Freight Train Derailed
🎦 26:27-26:47⏩
Another Russian freight train has been derailed, this time in Bryansk. 22 carriages were derailed and 250 metres of track and 100 metres of power lines were damaged.
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Russia - Not a Great Power
🎦 26:47-27:24⏩
Jonathan discusses a comment from Philip O'Brien who says that Russia is not a great power and if the West gives Ukraine the support it needs, it can be defeated.
- The Financial Times published a damning assessment of the Russian economy, saying that time is not on its side.
Trump and Russia
🎦 27:24-27:41⏩
Jonathan continues his discussion about the Financial Times report. He reads a section from the article which says that the only potential issue is if the Trump administration comes into power as it would likely relax the sanctions that are crippling the Russian economy.
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Sanctioned Russian Tankers
🎦 27:41-28:10⏩
Jonathan reports that three Russian oil tankers, carrying over two million barrels of oil, that were due to arrive at Chinese ports, have changed course and are now at anchor in the Sea of Okhotsk.
- The sanctions are having the desired impact in that they are preventing Russia from trading with China.
Syrian Refusal
🎦 28:10-28:29⏩
Jonathan reports that the Syrian government has refused entry to three Russian ships that wanted to dock at the Russian naval base at Tartus.
- This is good news because it will prevent Russia from withdrawing troops and equipment from Syria.
Andrew Perpetua on Russia's Position
🎦 28:29-31:10⏩
Jonathan shares open source intelligence analyst Andrew Perpetua's thoughts on Russia's position in the war.
- Putin invaded Ukraine for two reasons:
- To punish it for rebelling against him.
- To keep the West out of Ukraine at all costs.
- Russia has failed on both counts. Putin has become a laughing stock and is viewed as weak, and Ukraine is demanding security guarantees, which is the opposite of what Putin wanted.
- Russia has lost this war and Putin has two options:
- Go all in and hope he can achieve total victory.
- Freeze the conflict.
- Russia is trying to use its control of Ukrainian territory as leverage to achieve its aims by forcing a negotiated settlement which would allow it to save face. This plays on Western concerns that it is wrong/unfair that Ukraine should lose territory.
- It's important to understand that Russia doesn't care about land, it cares about its wider objectives. It wants to remove Western influence and involvement in Ukraine.
- Russia is in a bad position and this is its only option.
Anders Puck Nielsen Agrees with Andrew Perpetua
🎦 31:10-31:27⏩
Jonathan points out that Military Analyst, Anders Puck Nielsen, agrees with Andrew Perpetua's assessment of Russia's position and objectives in Ukraine.
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Positive Story
🎦 31:27-33:03⏩
Jonathan shares a positive comment from Okidoki who is raising her grandchildren.
- One of her grandchildren was repeating pro-Russian propaganda that he had heard from his teacher.
- After researching the history of Ukraine, he now understands the reality of the situation.
- Okidoki says that more people need to care about the truth.
- Jonathan praises the student for undertaking his own research - an important skill to learn at a young age.
Wrap up
🎦 33:03-33:05⏩
Jonathan thanks everyone for watching and says goodbye.
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