Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:22⏩
Jonathan welcomes the team to the third part of his Ukraine War News Update for 12th December 2024. He mentions there's a lot going on. He reminds viewers about the new fundraising campaign for a truck (or possibly trucks) for Ukraine with Car4Ukraine. The ATP Geopolitics team is already in second place, having raised about a quarter of the target amount. He plans to talk to other people involved in the campaign tomorrow, including Jonathan Fink from Silicon Curtain and Written in Ukrainian. He provides a link to the fundraiser in the description.
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Mark Rutte: Prepare for War
🎦 00:23-00:31⏩
Jonathan mentions that JR has alerted him to a statement by Mark Rutte, the incoming Dutch Secretary General to NATO, who has announced, "We need to prepare for war." This has been reported by the Dutch media service NOS. Jonathan finds this statement potentially serious and reflective of the current serious situation.
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Bloomberg Reports on Russian Forces in Syria
🎦 00:32-00:58⏩
Bloomberg and other sources are reporting that talks are taking place for Russian forces to remain at the naval port and airbase in Tartus and Khmeimim in Syria. Pekka Kalyanemi comments that this is a missed opportunity for the US and Europe to reduce Russia's operations in Africa. Ray Yipso-Liu reports that Russia is close to reaching an agreement with the new Syrian leadership to keep the two bases. Jonathan notes that the Russians were involved in the killing of many Syrians, so they would need to offer significant sweeteners to the new Syrian rulers. He acknowledges the fractious situation in Syria and the challenges ahead, given the multiple rebel factions that don't see eye to eye. Russia's continued presence in Syria is seen as a gateway to Africa, which is a literal goldmine for the Kremlin and enables them to continue prosecuting the war in Ukraine. Thomas Tyner comments on the irony of the situation, given that the Biden administration and European governments are not effectively countering Russia's influence.
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US and Russia Relations with Syria
🎦 00:59-01:09⏩
Jonathan expresses frustration that the West can't effectively compete with Russia on the global stage. He points to the Trump administration's disengagement from Syria as a factor allowing Russia to exert pressure. While some believe a deal between Russia and Syria is unlikely, Jonathan notes that "money talks" and Russia has a lot of money involved in Syria. He finds the situation very worrying.
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Nuclear Powers Meet in Dubai
🎦 01:10-01:22⏩
The five original nuclear powers (USA, UK, France, Russia, and China) met in Dubai to discuss nuclear doctrines. Jonathan sees this as another sign of the increasingly serious global situation, especially given Russia's continued sabre-rattling, which China has reprimanded Russia for.
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France Assures Continued Support for Kyiv
🎦 01:23-01:37⏩
The French ambassador has assured that France's policy toward Ukraine will remain unchanged under the new government. Gaia Vesier expressed confidence in this continuity.
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Germany to Host Talks on Future Support for Ukraine
🎦 01:38-01:48⏩
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock will host a meeting with her counterparts from France, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Ukraine, as well as the UK's Deputy Foreign Minister and the EU High Representative Kaja Kallas, to discuss future support for Ukraine. Jonathan believes many countries are now having to get very serious about supporting Ukraine, given the US's inconsistent stance.
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Donald Trump Jr. Posts Comparison of Trump and Zelensky
🎦 01:49-02:05⏩
Donald Trump Jr. posted an image on Instagram comparing Donald Trump to Volodymyr Zelensky, with Trump labelled "Greatest of all time." Jonathan finds this post terrible, as it pits the US President against Zelensky and reflects the obsequious behaviour of Donald Trump Jr.
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Ukraine's Mixed Signals from the US
🎦 02:06-02:25⏩
Kate from Kharkiv notes that Trump's son's post sends mixed signals from America. While the Biden administration has been consistent, albeit with some weaknesses, there's hope that Trump will do the right thing, with 44% trust in Trump in Ukraine. However, Chris O'Wickey argues that the signals have been consistent, aligning with Philip O'Brien's view that Trump is not a fan of anything that benefits Ukraine.
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Europe Considers Ditching America
🎦 02:26-02:44⏩
Jonathan speculates that Europe might have to "ditch America" and support Ukraine independently. He wonders how Trump would react if European nations effectively told him he wasn't wanted and they would handle things themselves. This could either push Trump further towards Russia or, hopefully, spur him to be more positive towards Ukraine by playing him off against Putin.
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Macron in Warsaw Discussing EU Peacekeeping Mission
🎦 02:45-02:56⏩
Emmanuel Macron is in Warsaw talking to Radoslaw Sikorski and Donald Tusk about a possible EU peacekeeping mission in Ukraine after the war, which could include up to 40,000 troops. Jonathan sees this as a sign of Europe taking on a larger role, potentially without the US, although he notes that the situation might be different within the US Department of Defense outside of Trump's circle.
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Sanctions on Russian Shadow Tankers
🎦 02:57-03:18⏩
The KSE Institute has released a Venn diagram showing that 118 Russian shadow tankers are under US, UK, and EU sanctions, but only three are hit by all three. Jonathan highlights the need for better coordination among the three entities to ensure all 118 tankers are included in the overlapping section. Edward Hunter Christie reports that new EU sanctions target 50 ships in Russia's shadow fleet used for oil exports above the G7 price cap, and some Chinese companies are also listed.
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EU's 15th Sanctions Package and Border Protection
🎦 03:19-03:41⏩
The EU has approved its 15th sanctions package against Russia, targeting 45 tankers from the shadow fleet and over 80 individuals and entities supporting Russia's war. The package also extends Czechia's import license for Russian oil products for six more months. Additionally, the EU is allocating 178 million dollars in financial support to Baltic countries, Finland, Poland, and Norway to bolster their border protection efforts. Jonathan notes the seriousness of the situation on Europe's eastern borders.
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Austria Terminates Gas Supply Contract with Gazprom
🎦 03:42-04:34⏩
Austrian company OMV has announced the termination of its long-term natural gas supply contract with Gazprom, which was supposed to end in 2040. This follows Gazprom halting gas flows to OMV after OMV won an arbitration case against Gazprom. Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer has been fairly critical of Russia, which Jonathan finds interesting given Austria's neutrality and past facilitation of pro-Russian activities. Andrew Perpetua and Thomas Tyner comment on Austria's newfound assertiveness.
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Nehammer: Russia's Energy Blackmail Failed
🎦 04:35-05:05⏩
Karl Nehammer stated that Russia tried to use energy as a weapon against Austria, but it didn't work, and OMV is terminating the contract. He declared that Austria's energy supply is secure and that Austria cannot be blackmailed by Russia. However, a quote not from Nehammer criticizes Europe's short-sighted policy that created the dependency on Russian gas in the first place. Jonathan finds Nehammer's strong rhetoric surprising but acknowledges that many in Austria likely hold the opinion that this move will cause too much trouble.
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Anton Gerashchenko on OMV-Gazprom Contract Termination
🎦 05:06-05:35⏩
Anton Gerashchenko reports that OMV terminated its long-term natural gas supply agreements with Gazprom. Gazprom Export had halted gas deliveries to OMV, and the Austrian company won an arbitration case against Gazprom, intending to recover 230 million euros in damages. Jonathan sees this as good news for Ukraine in the long run.
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Hungary's Attempt at Brokering a Christmas Truce
🎦 05:36-06:14⏩
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó received a medal from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, highlighting their close relationship. Szijjártó called Lavrov to complain about Ukraine not approving Viktor Orbán's initiative for a Christmas truce and prisoner exchange, which they tried to organize without Ukraine. Lavrov noted that this is not the first time initiatives for peace, including those from Hungary and Turkey, have been rejected by Kyiv.
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Zelensky Slams Orbán for Call with Putin
🎦 06:15-06:44⏩
President Zelensky slammed Viktor Orbán for his hour-long call with Putin to discuss Ukraine. Jonathan finds it unacceptable for Orbán to have done this. Dmitry Litvin, Zelensky's communication advisor, responded to a question from Agence France-Presse, stating that Hungary didn't discuss anything with or notify Ukraine about its contacts with Moscow, nor did Ukraine authorize Hungary to represent it in any way. Ukraine is working daily to free prisoners and is committed to achieving real and durable peace in coordination with its partners.
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Russia Directs Propaganda Towards India
🎦 06:45-07:23⏩
Russia has directed its propaganda machine towards India. Alexander Dugin, an ultra-nationalist philosopher who underwrites many of Putin's thoughts, is working against democracy for the Kremlin's money. Anton Gerashchenko expresses concern about the economic and cultural contacts between Russia and India, seeing them as a threat to democracy. He notes India's respect for the UN Charter and its calls for dialogue and diplomacy, contrasting this with Russia's actions. Gerashchenko believes India can lead the global south in building a new world order, while Russia cannot due to its status as a terrorist country. He is glad that many in India understand the danger of Russian propaganda.
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Russia and India Sign Record Oil Supply Deal
🎦 07:24-08:05⏩
Russia's Rosneft and India's Reliance Industries have finalized a 10-year agreement to supply 500,000 barrels of oil daily, amounting to 13 billion dollars a year. Jonathan sees this as bad news, questioning whether India is talking out of both sides of its mouth given its membership in BRICS and alignment with Russia against American hegemony. Deliveries are set to begin in January next year.
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Gabrielius Landsbergis Steps Down as Foreign Minister of Lithuania
🎦 08:06-08:24⏩
Benjamin Tallis reports on Gabrielius Landsbergis stepping down as Foreign Minister of Lithuania. Jonathan expresses his admiration for Landsbergis' courage, moral clarity, and talents, hoping to see more from him in the future.
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Russia's Aviation Industry Troubles
🎦 08:25-08:41⏩
Russia's aviation industry is struggling, having only made seven out of 108 planned airliners. Jonathan saw a video of a Russian jet covered in algae being used for flights, which he finds indicative of the industry's decline.
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Protests Continue in Tbilisi
🎦 08:42-09:05⏩
Protests in Tbilisi, Georgia, are ongoing, with civil servants joining the demonstrations against the government's refusal to continue European integration and the violence and intimidation against them. Jonathan hopes that all instruments of government will join the protests to stop Georgia from functioning as a country.
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Medvedev: US Could Resolve Crisis in Ukraine
🎦 09:06-09:47⏩
Dmitry Medvedev claims that the US could resolve the crisis in Ukraine if the new administration (i.e., Trump) is truly committed. He argues that Kyiv exists thanks to military and financial support from the US and some European countries. Jonathan sees this as in line with the approach of Donald Trump Jr. and Elon Musk, noting that much of the incoming administration is compromised by Russia.
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US Lawmakers Urge Assessment of Security Risks if Aid to Ukraine Ends
🎦 09:48-10:28⏩
US lawmakers have urged intelligence agencies to assess the security risks if military aid to Ukraine ends, according to The Hill. The proposed NDAA provision mandates a report on Ukraine's war trajectory and global repercussions if US support stops, including impacts on Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of continued US support for Ukraine but expresses concern about the likelihood of this happening given the signals from the Trump family. He stresses the importance of mainstream media for investigative journalism, despite its unpopularity with some.
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FBI Director Christopher Wray Resigns
🎦 10:29-10:57⏩
FBI Director Christopher Wray has resigned, choosing to bow out before his 10-year term ends rather than wait to be fired by Trump. Kash Patel is reportedly meeting with senators to rally support for his confirmation as Wray's replacement.
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Kash Patel Plans to Investigate Zelensky
🎦 10:58-11:54⏩
Kash Patel, endorsed by Trump as the future FBI director nominee, plans to investigate Zelensky's activities. He aims to probe how US taxpayer money has been used by Ukraine and whether Zelensky exaggerated threats to secure more US funding. Jonathan criticizes Patel's statements, pointing out the US's own analysis of Russia's nuclear threat and the misunderstanding of how aid to Ukraine works. He also criticizes Patel's reference to the 2022 missile incident in Poland, emphasizing the context of Russian aggression.
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Kash Patel's Comments on Zelensky and US Aid to Ukraine
🎦 11:55-12:52⏩
Jonathan continues to critique Kash Patel's comments on Zelensky's requests for aid and the 2022 missile incident in Poland. He stresses that supporting Ukraine is in the US's strategic interest and criticizes Patel for not understanding this. A Ukrainian expresses their distress at the hate and disgust directed towards them, questioning what they have done to deserve it.
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Pressure on Senators Skeptical of Pete Hegseth and Kash Patel
🎦 12:53-13:27⏩
There is immense pressure on those skeptical of Pete Hegseth, who is being considered for a role in the Department of Defense, including many Republican senators. Joni Ernst, a female veteran and Republican senator who has been sexually assaulted, is under significant pressure. Trump's allies are determined not to repeat past mistakes and are putting immense pressure on skeptical senators regarding nominees like Kash Patel, Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Hegseth, and RFK Jr., all of whom Jonathan believes are unqualified.
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