Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-03:33⏩

Jonathan introduces the video (his usual "Hello team") and explains that JR has done a "fabulous job" updating the maps. There is discussion about adding a "grey zone" to the maps to depict areas where neither side has control. Jonathan explains that each mapper (DeepStateMap, SyriacMaps, Andrew Perpetua) has their own methodology which may be pro-Ukrainian, pro-Russian or neutral and therefore their maps often differ. He explains how the grey zone can be fluid and difficult to pinpoint as the line can shift considerably in a short space of time, which is not always reflected by the maps.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Stelmakhivka - Krokmalna - Makiivka (Northeast)

🎦 03:33-06:14⏩

Jonathan reports that there are three areas of "confirmed changes" on the map (i.e. claims made by the mappers) - the first being the northern area by Stelmakhivka-Krokmalna in the direction of Makiivka. Andrew Perpetua agrees that Russian forces have made gains in Kizilivka. Analysis of geolocated footage (05/05 & 06/05) by ISW suggests marginal Russian advances east of Stelmakhivka and south of Krokmalna. A Russian milblogger claimed a 300m advance on the eastern outskirts of Stelmakhivka. Ukrainian paratroopers destroy a Russian lead vehicle (and possibly the one following) in the Kupiansk direction near Krokmalna. Whilst geolocated footage suggests a Russian presence, it does not necessarily mean they control the area. Jonathan suspects this is a repelled attack.

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Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast)

🎦 06:14-18:14⏩

Jonathan reports no mapping changes around Chasiv Yar. Radu Hosu (Romanian analyst who fundraises for Ukraine) describes the battle for Chasiv Yar as the "most important of the year". He highlights Ukrainian counterattacks south of Ivaniske (confirmed by Ukraine's videos) which is causing the Russians to redirect troops away from Chasiv Yar, thus slowing Russian progress in this area. This Ukrainian counteroffensive coupled with the destruction of three bridges east of Chasiv Yar, the arrival of Western Artillery munitions and Patriot interceptors (which will curtail Russian air superiority) is "leading to an improvement" according to Radu Hosu. Jonathan believes that the recently destroyed bridge east of Chasiv Yar was destroyed by the Ukrainians (not the Russians) as this would impede a Russian advance, forcing them to find a different route across the canal. Jonathan notes that the arrival of Patriot interceptors coincides with the downing of two Russian Sukhoi fighter jets and this may deter the Russians from using their airforce in this area. Hosu suggests that the Ukrainians could hold onto Chasiv Yar for a "good few months" should the Russians make "tactical mistakes" on the Kupiansk and Prokrovsk axis. Whilst Jonathan agrees that it is a "tall order" for the Russians, he believes that given their use of "guided glide bombs" the Ukrainians will struggle to hold on for more than a couple of months. He notes that the Ukrainians have openly admitted that Chasiv Yar will fall - it is only a matter of time. Jonathan discusses the strategic importance of Chasiv Yar - its high ground, canal and fortified positions. He suspects that the Russians will resort to "meat assaults" as they did in Bakhmut. He believes that the fall of Chasiv Yar will have a "domino effect", opening up attacks on Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk - towns/cities the Russians need in order to take the Donbas. He notes the "internal political tensions" within Europe and the forthcoming elections could result in pressure on Ukraine to accept an "unjust peace deal".

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Novoprokrovsk (Donetsk Oblast)

🎦 18:14-19:04⏩

Jonathan reports Russian advances south of Ocheretyne and Soloveve (south of Avdiivka). DeepStateMap reports that Russian forces advanced near Novoprokrovsk (directly west of Vodyane), their next objective in this area. Their advance has stalled around Semenivka, Opytne and Vesele but they are making progress in the north.

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Avdiivka (Donetsk Oblast)

🎦 19:04-21:12⏩

Jonathan states that there is no mention by ISW of Chasiv Yar. Geolocated footage (06/05) shows Russian advances along the E50 highway, east of Novokalynove. Active hostilities are reported on the Southern flank of Avdiivka with Ukrainian forces hitting a Russian column of armoured vehicles on the highway to Karlivka. Jonathan notes that footage shows this location to be further back from where Russian forces have been located since. He describes how Russian forces are making incremental gains (100-200m) in this area each day.

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Krasnohorivka (Donetsk Oblast)

🎦 21:12-22:18⏩

Jonathan reports small groups of Russian forces trying to storm Krasnohorivka. Heavy Ukrainian artillery fire is preventing them from consolidating gains. A Russian milblogger has claimed that Russian forces have captured most of Paraskoviivka (a settlement on from Novomykhailivka) although this has not been confirmed by the ISW. One Russian milblogger says fighting is ongoing on the eastern outskirts. Jonathan believes it is only a matter of time before the Russians take Paraskoviivka but Kostyantynivka will be a challenge for them - as will capturing Vuhledar.

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Novomykhailivka (Donetsk Oblast)

🎦 22:18-24:45⏩

Jonathan notes that the last he heard (yesterday) Russian forces had lost 314 pieces of equipment in Novomykhailivka alone. He extrapolates from this to illustrate that based on current attrition rates, the Russians do not have the resources to take the Donbas, even if the Ukrainians are "on their knees" at the moment. He struggles to comprehend these losses, describing how this tiny town (4.5km x 2km) was the "graveyard" of so much equipment. He believes that Russian losses in the Donbas have been "unsustainable" but sees no reason why these losses won't be replicated in future attacks.

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Urozhaine (Donetsk Oblast)

🎦 24:45-26:51⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukrainian forces (58th Brigade) have counterattacked in the Southern part of Urozhaine and liberated 0.28 square km. Further geolocated footage suggests a more "advanced liberation" of 0.32 square km. Jonathan observes that whilst this hasn't been reflected in the maps yet, it is interesting to see the Ukrainians counterattacking here as there haven't been many examples recently (due to a lack of troops/equipment).

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Robotyne (Zaporizhzhia Oblast)

🎦 26:51-28:59⏩

Jonathan reports that Syriac maps shows that over the last 5 days, Russian forces have improved their positions in Robotyne with Ukrainian forces withdrawing to the outskirts of the town (in the north and east). Syriac Maps does not believe that it will be possible for Russian forces to win the battle for this area until they have taken these Ukrainian defensive positions. The other mappers do not agree on this. However, geolocated footage (yesterday) by ISW indicates a Russian advance in Southern Robotyne. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirm that positional engagements are continuing here. Jonathan observes that Syriac maps and ISW would appear to be in agreement and suspects that the other mappers will update their positions to reflect this soon.

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Dnipro River (Kherson Oblast)

🎦 28:59-35:46⏩

Jonathan reports that ISW is claiming Russian advances on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast but not at Kinburn Spit. He explains why it is essential to refer to left and right banks of a river rather than rely on compass points when a river flows in more than one direction. Geolocated footage (06/05) indicates that Russian forces have advanced north of Oleshky. Footage shows Ukrainian forces striking a Russian target South East of Nechaieve on the highway (97) near the bridge over the Konka River. Jonathan notes how the ISW sometimes gets things wrong e.g. describing a Russian presence in an area they already control as an "advance". He believes that this geolocated footage is evidence of the Russians pushing north of Oleshky. Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians have struggled to advance further south in this area due to the terrain (river delta) which makes it challenging to operate equipment and would leave them vulnerable to attack. A Ukrainian Spokesman has stated that Russian forces are using up to 300 "strike drones" a day in Southern Ukraine. Jonathan questions whether this is significant given the size of the area. He notes that without context this is difficult to quantify. The Ukrainian spokesman also reported that Russian forces are trying to take control of Nastriia Island (in the Dnipro River Delta) and are taking losses. A Russian source claims the Island is contested (a grey zone) and the high water levels are complicating operations in the area. Jonathan notes that all the mappers agree that the Ukrainians have full control of this island but this suggests otherwise. He wonders if the Russians are now trying to take it back. Finally, Jonathan reports that Russian forces are increasingly using guided glide bombs on the right bank of the Dnipro River - a tactic that is "not unusual" and describes how this is "horrific" for civilians still living in this area.

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Wrap Up

🎦 35:46-36:08⏩

Jonathan concludes the video with his usual sign off and thanks his supporters on Buy Me A Coffee and PayPal - noting their "insane generosity". He promises to give a personal shout-out to people who have supported him in the next few days.

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"Like, if Russia is going to take the Donbass, then, like, and Ukraine can attrit them at those same rates, [22:55.740 -> 22:57.980] they just don't have the ability."