Ukraine War Update EXTRA
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Table of Contents 📖
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"If you want to understand what Russia has done here, come to Ukraine and you will see it with your own eyes. After that, you will tell us how to end this war, who started it, and when we can end it."
Hello Team!
Jonathan is still ill but pushing through to provide this extra update with additional context and insights on the war in Ukraine.
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Drones in the Ukraine War
- Drones are vital for intelligence but suffering high attrition rates. 90% of drones Ukraine deployed between February and July were destroyed.
- Average life expectancy of a fixed-wing drone was 6 flights, and a quadcopter only 3.
- This raises questions about how long European fleets would survive given the attrition rates seen in Ukraine.
Gepard Anti-Aircraft Vehicles
- Germany has promised Ukraine more Gepard anti-aircraft vehicles which are effective against drones like the Shahed-136.
- However, ammunition for the Gepards is scarce. The Swiss have blocked delivery so far due to re-export restrictions.
- Rheinmetall could produce more ammunition if the German government provides the necessary authority and funding.
Expanded US Training for Ukrainian Forces
- The Biden administration is considering a dramatic expansion of the training the US military provides to Ukrainian forces, including instructing up to 2,500 Ukrainian soldiers per month at a US base in Germany.
- Jonathan notes that while this is reported as Biden's decision, in reality the US military would have proposed this plan and Biden would approve it. Military decisions are made by military leaders and advisors, not the President directly.
- The same applies to the weapons the US has and hasn't provided to Ukraine - this is a military decision rather than Biden's.
New Zealand Troops Training Ukrainians
- New Zealand troops helping to train Ukrainian soldiers in the UK performed a Haka, the traditional Maori war dance, for UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.
- While some have criticized this as a waste of training time, Jonathan argues it is important for building a sense of camaraderie, brotherhood and joy among the troops.
- He shares some humourous anecdotes about the history of the Haka in the New Zealand All Blacks rugby team.
Russian Propaganda Video Analysis
Jonathan analyses a video posted by a Russian source claiming to show Ukrainian soldiers complaining about poor leadership and conditions in Bakhmut. He points out numerous indicators that this is a Russian propaganda video:
- The soldiers only have a yellow armband as a marker of being Ukrainian, the bare minimum prop
- Their equipment and helmets look distinctly Russian rather than Ukrainian
- The mud is dry, inconsistent with current ground conditions in Bakhmut
- The soldiers are doing strange things like digging random holes rather than clearing actual damage
- The food they show as being "scavenged" is suspiciously unlabelled, likely because it is Russian rather than Ukrainian
- Overall, the video shows the minimal effort required to stage a propaganda piece rather than an authentic Ukrainian video
Situation in Bakhmut
- CNN report with Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut shows them using machine guns and drones to target Russian positions
- Commanders say they are heavily outnumbered and outgunned, with even US-provided weapons wearing out from overuse
- They are requesting more artillery and ammunition to continue holding Bakhmut against the Russian onslaught
Other Updates
- Videos show significant Russian reinforcements of older model IFVs and APCs on the move, but their destination is unknown
- A large fire consumed a shopping mall in Krasnoyarsk, Russia, amidst reports that 1 in 3 Russian malls may go bankrupt soon
- H&M is permanently closing its 170 stores in Russia
- Yandex, Russia's Google equivalent, has removed destroyed buildings in occupied Mariupol from its maps to hide the destruction from Russians
Zelensky Invites Elon Musk to Ukraine
In response to Elon Musk repeatedly suggesting Ukraine should hold peace talks and cede territory to Russia, Zelensky has invited him to visit Ukraine and see the situation firsthand. Musk had cited outdated and flawed opinion polls to support his arguments. Zelensky suggests that after witnessing the reality of the war, Musk can then tell Ukraine how to end it. Jonathan commends Zelensky for calling out Musk and his ill-informed opinions.
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Wrap up
Jonathan is planning another video analysing the controversial pro-Russian takes of retired US Colonel Douglas Macgregor, who has advised the White House in the past. This demonstrates the nuances in American political opinion on support for Ukraine, even among Republicans.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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