Ukraine War Update EXTRA : Brittney Griney-Victor Bout Deal
Table of Contents 📖
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"Value is subjective. Victor Bout is worth whatever Russia are willing to pay for him. Nothing more and nothing less."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses the recent prisoner exchange between the US and Russia involving Brittney Griner and Victor Bout. He notes that this topic has caused a lot of controversy in America, largely along political lines and playing into the culture war narrative. Jonathan encourages viewers to approach the issue with an open mind.
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Dom Nichols' Analysis
Jonathan shares an excerpt from the Ukraine: The Latest podcast, featuring Dom Nichols' analysis of the Griner-Bout deal. Nichols suggests it was a pragmatic deal, as the US had to accept Griner or nothing. He believes Bout has limited utility for Russia after being in prison for 12 years. Nichols also discusses negotiation tactics and the potential lessons for dealing with Russia in the future.
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Viewer Comment and Jonathan's Response
A viewer criticizes Jonathan for making "dumb political comments" and suggests he hasn't done proper research on the issue. Jonathan counters this, stating that he has written an article on the topic and done the necessary research. He argues that the viewer's reaction demonstrates knee-jerk political entrenchment and an unwillingness to consider alternative viewpoints, which can lead to political polarization.
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Trump's Role in Paul Whelan's Case
Contrary to the viewer's claim, Jonathan presents evidence that the Trump administration did not actively work towards Paul Whelan's release. He cites Paul Whelan's brother, who stated that Trump was not prepared or interested in wrongful detention cases during his presidency. Jonathan also notes Trump's hypocrisy in criticizing the Biden administration's deal while failing to mention Whelan's case during his own term.
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Evaluating the Griner-Bout Deal
Jonathan argues that the value of Victor Bout to Russia is subjective and may be less than some people assume. He suggests that after 10 years in prison, Bout's utility as an arms dealer may be limited, and he will likely be closely monitored by the international intelligence community. Jonathan also notes that the Biden administration likely exhausted other options before agreeing to the Griner-Bout swap, and there may be additional factors involved that are not public knowledge.
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Political Implications and Timing
The Griner-Bout deal took place after the US midterm elections, suggesting that the Biden administration was aware of the potential political backlash but proceeded anyway. This, according to Jonathan, indicates that the deal had intrinsic value for the administration despite the expected criticism from Republicans and conservative media outlets.
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Understanding Value and Subjectivity
Jonathan emphasizes that value is subjective and that the Griner-Bout deal represents an equilibrium where both the US and Russia found mutual value in the exchange. He argues that critics who claim the deal was unfair or unbalanced are imposing their own subjective evaluations without considering the broader context and the fact that value is not objective.
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Wrap up
In conclusion, Jonathan invites viewers who disagree with his analysis to provide evidence and explanations for their positions. He acknowledges that his perspective may upset some viewers but encourages them to approach the issue with an open mind and to consider the complexities of the situation.
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