Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"I've seen a lot of people get out of BMPs that look like the mine would have taken out everyone inside and then it disables the BMP and people get out."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new Ukraine War News Update for June 25th, 2024, focusing on the first part of the day's news.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:10-03:31⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses, noting 1,180 personnel, a lower-than-average four tanks, 18 armoured personnel vehicles (above average), a significant loss of 35 artillery systems, and 58 fuel tanks. He speculates on the decrease in tank losses, suggesting a potential lack of operational tanks, a shift in Russian tactics away from large tank formations, and their limited utility in the current conflict. He highlights the versatility of Bradleys in this context. Jonathan observes that the high personnel and fuel tank losses, combined with the increased use of less-protected vehicles like buggies, could indicate a shortage of more suitable military vehicles.
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Oryx Losses
🎦 03:31-07:43⏩
Jonathan examines Oryx's loss statistics, with credit to Andrew Perpetua. Russian losses stand at 48 compared to 24 Ukrainian losses, though Jonathan believes the latter might include decoys, potentially making the ratio closer to 2:1. This is better for Ukraine, but not the ideal 3:1 ratio. He expresses concern over the near parity in combat asset losses—15 Russian to 11 Ukrainian. Jonathan points out that a significant portion of the visually confirmed destroyed Ukrainian equipment consists of Western-provided vehicles like the AHS Krab, Bradley, Senator, M113, and MaxxPro. This suggests Ukraine might be running low on their own equipment and are increasingly relying on Western aid.
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Russian Equipment Losses - More Buggies
🎦 07:43-09:22⏩
Jonathan analyses the footage of destroyed Russian equipment and questions the prevalence of "golf buggies" amongst the losses. He questions their effectiveness in a warzone, especially considering the presence of drones, mines and artillery. He reiterates his belief that this points to a potential shortage of more suitable armored vehicles.
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Crimea - Possible S300/S400 Systems Hit
🎦 09:22-10:24⏩
Jonathan discusses claims circulating on social media about the destruction of S-300 and S-400 air defence systems in Crimea, citing sources like Jane Keeve. These claims suggest Ukrainian forces successfully targeted these systems, potentially making Ukrainian airspace safer for their F-16s and drones. However, Jonathan emphasizes that visual confirmation is still pending.
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Russian BM-21 Grad Destroyed
🎦 10:24-10:44⏩
Jonathan shows footage of the destroyed Russian BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system near Prokofivka, west of Avdiivka. He notes this as a significant loss for the Russians in that area.
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Russians Claim Ukrainian IRIS-T Destroyed
🎦 10:44-19:18⏩
Jonathan addresses Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian IRIS-T SLM medium-range air defence system using Iskander-M missiles. He expresses skepticism about the footage, pointing out suspicious cuts and inconsistencies that cast doubt on the Russian narrative. Jonathan questions the lack of a clear impact and the presence of unexplained smoke. He references analysis by Germany to Ukraine and War Vehicle Tracker, both expressing reservations about the Russian claims. He concludes by stating that while something might have been hit, the manipulated footage raises red flags.
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Moscow - Platan Research Institute Fire
🎦 19:18-22:09⏩
Jonathan highlights the major fire at the Platan Research Institute near Moscow, a key facility for Russian military electronics. The fire engulfed over 4,500 square metres, resulting in at least nine deaths, some from jumping out of windows. Jonathan emphasizes the strategic significance of this institute, as it develops components for fighter jets, nuclear launch systems, S-400s, and guided munitions. He posits sabotage as a likely cause, considering the facility's critical role in the war effort. A commentator, Trent Alenco, suggests that the fire could significantly set back Russian electronic warfare capabilities, comparing it to the impact on the Luftwaffe after September 1944.
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Russian Air Alerts and Strikes
🎦 22:09-27:35⏩
Jonathan reports on overnight air raid alerts in the Russian regions of Kursk, Voronezh, and Belgorod, with explosions and air defence fire reported in Belgorod. Footage suggests the attacks involved drones and rockets. While Russian media claim all 29 drones were shot down, Jonathan points out evidence of at least two direct impacts. He then covers conflicting reports from Voronezh, where initial reports of drone fragments hitting an industrial site were later contradicted by Ukrainian intelligence claiming responsibility for the attack on an ammunition depot. Jonathan also briefly mentions strikes on Kharkiv, with smoke rising from the city. He notes a significant attack on Pokrovsk, west of Avdiivka, where two Iskander-M missiles killed four people, injured 34 (including two children), destroyed one house, and damaged 16 others. While Jonathan acknowledges the possibility of military targets, the footage suggests civilian areas were hit. He explains the concept of Circular Error Probable (CEP) for missiles, highlighting that even "precision-guided" munitions have a margin of error that can result in civilian casualties.
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Zelensky Replaces Joint Forces Commander
🎦 27:35-28:36⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's replacement of Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol with Brigadier General Andriy Hnatov as commander of the Joint Forces. He links this decision to a previous video where the Azov chief of staff criticized an unnamed Ukrainian general, suggesting the criticism prompted Zelensky's action. This, according to Jonathan, implies that Sodol's performance was deemed unsatisfactory.
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US Limits on Ukrainian Strikes into Russia
🎦 28:36-31:47⏩
Jonathan expresses frustration with the US's stance on Ukrainian strikes within Russian territory. He questions Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder's rationale for limiting Ukraine's reach to 100 kilometres, preventing attacks on key Russian air bases. He argues that this "anti-escalatory" approach is counterproductive, as those bases launch devastating attacks on Ukrainian front lines and cities. Jonathan contends that allowing Ukraine to target these airfields is crucial for their defence and criticises what he believes is an overly cautious approach by the Biden administration, specifically attributing the decision to National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. He believes Sullivan is "complicit" in hindering Ukraine's ability to effectively counter Russian aggression.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Infrastructure
🎦 31:47-35:34⏩
Jonathan transitions to discussing Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure, citing Zelensky's confirmation of over 30 attacks on refineries, terminals, and oil depots within Russia, showcasing the reach of Ukrainian drones. He also mentions Ukrainian intelligence chief Budanov's assessment that while these strikes might not single-handedly win the war, they can impact the Russian economy and troop morale. Jonathan views these strikes as a crucial component of Ukraine's strategy, acknowledging the importance of weakening Russia's ability to sustain its war effort. Conversely, he highlights the vulnerability of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, with Anton Gerashchenko reporting a loss of nine gigawatts of generating capacity due to Russian attacks. Jonathan expresses concern that completely crippling Ukraine's energy grid could force their capitulation, particularly given potential political shifts in the US by November.
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Increase in Russian Chemical Weapons Use
🎦 35:34-36:02⏩
Jonathan raises concerns about the escalating use of chemical weapons by Russian forces. He reports that Ukraine recorded 715 instances of chemical weapon use in May alone, marking a significant increase from the previous month.
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Twitter Issues and Potential Manipulation
🎦 36:02-39:33⏩
Jonathan discusses potential issues on Twitter, noting a pattern of pro-Ukrainian accounts, including those of Sean Harris, Tim White, and Julia Davis, experiencing a significant and unexplained drop in followers. He questions whether these are widespread technical glitches or targeted actions, particularly given Elon Musk's ownership of Twitter and his pro-Trump, anti-Democrat stance. He highlights Musk's history of altering Twitter's algorithms to juxtapose Ukrainian news with disinformation and speculates on a potential connection between Musk's political leanings, his relationship with Trump, and the observed Twitter irregularities. Jonathan invites viewers to share their experiences and insights on this matter.
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Wrap Up
🎦 39:33-39:35⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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