Ukraine War Update Live Stream w/ Jake Broe
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:23⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to a livestream with guest Jake Broe. Jonathan's excited to be joined by Jake (again!) as he's well known to the Ukraine war Youtube community. It's particularly interesting to speak to Jake about the possibility of North Korean involvement in the war. Jonathan thanks Jake for joining him.
- Jonathan takes the opportunity to announce a NAFO campaign he's involved in to help raise funds for a truck for the 12th National Guard Brigade (a Ukrainian unit). He's excited about this and thanks Chris Jones for designing the patch.
- Jonathan's patch design has special significance for Jonathan, his viewers and the wider community and is called "42nd Epistemology Battalion" . 42 is the meaning of life and epistemology is the study of knowledge/truth. The design features a book, globe and the medical sign (in memory of Pete the Medic who passed away). Jonathan met Pete in Ukraine.
- This is an active campaign (link in the description). JR has already donated €100.
- Jonathan asks Jake about his experience of working with NAFO.
Jake Broe's NAFO fundraising
🎦 02:23-05:45⏩
- Jake confirms he's done two campaigns with NAFO - one in May and another in August.
- Jake's first fundraiser was for his 40th birthday. He underestimated the commitment of his subscribers and raised $1.2 million in one week! (enough for 30 vehicles and over 500 drones for the 69th brigade - including cheaper FPVs and more expensive Mavic 4s.
- Jake's second fundraiser was called "Thousand Days of War" and hit $1.1 million in a week. In total Jake's fundraisers will have delivered 60 vehicles, over 1000 drones and other items such as socks, generators and anti drone units. Jake acknowledges his subscribers are amazing.
- Jonathan highlights that Jake has got to a point where he has an audience who are prepared to contribute so much to something so important.
- Jake feels he's now more than just a commentator, but a participant as he knows the vehicles and drones he's helped purchase are saving/taking lives.
- Jake also feels that people see him differently - he's shown he's trying to make a difference and use his platform to save lives and help Ukraine defeat Russia.
- Jake mentions the upcoming election and how it will impact the war.
- Jonathan agrees with everything Jake has said.
Concerns about potential North Korean/Chinese/Iranian involvement in the Ukraine war and the impact of the US election
🎦 05:45-07:28⏩
- Jonathan highlights that North Korea, Iran and China appear to be taking sides more overtly and crossing red lines, something that the allies seem reluctant to do.
- Jake thinks there is heightened anxiety because of the upcoming US election. He doesn't think Donald Trump will concede if he loses (like in 2020) and that there will be court challenges and legal battles. However, Jake's more optimistic now than he was in 2020 as Trump doesn't control the military, Justice Department or FBI anymore.
- Jake feels that recent headlines about North Korea wanting to send troops to Ukraine are not a coincidence and are timed to coincide with the election and make Trump look like a "peace candidate", able to avert World War III through his relationships with Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
- Jake thinks this is all part of a plan by Trump to make himself look like the peace candidate when in reality he just wants to appease dictators. He also feels that autocracies are like clubs who don't interfere in each other's business.
Putin wants respect and to be a regional hegemon
🎦 07:28-09:25⏩
- Jake feels this is all about Putin wanting to be respected and a regional hegemon of the former Soviet satellite states. He contrasts this with 10 years ago when Putin was happy to show respect (e.g. by not vetoing the UN Security Council Resolution 1441 about Iraq) as long as Russia was shown the same respect in return e.g when it wanted to topple the government in Kyiv or prop up the Belarusian dictator.
- Jake contrasts Trump's appeasement with Democrats and people who believe in Democracy, Human Rights and International Law. Jake believes the latter should be striving for these things even though half the world's population live in autocracies and have no say in their government.
- Jake acknowledges that the US is the most impactful democracy in the world and the president should always be striving to spread democracy, human rights and respect for international law, something which Donald Trump doesn't care about.
The US needs to invest in the world to be the top nation and is on the right side in supporting Ukraine (both morally and in it's own self interest)
🎦 09:25-11:25⏩
- Jonathan feels that the isolationist tendency doesn't make sense - on one hand the US wants to be the best nation in the world but on the other hand doesn't want to be involved in NATO or invest in Europe. Jonathan feels that to be the top nation the US needs to invest in the world, using its military might and democratic checks and balances.
- Jonathan acknowledges that this will inevitably mean US imperialism which can go wrong. He's been critical of the US in the past, but feels that in supporting Ukraine, the US is on the right side, both morally and in terms of achieving US objectives in staying at the top.
- Jake highlights that the European Union is America's largest trading partner and that peace and prosperity in the EU guarantees peace and prosperity in the US. He also mentions the 1 million US citizens living and working in Europe.
Ukraine and the US election
🎦 11:25-14:50⏩
- Jake reiterates that the safety of Americans living in Europe should matter to the President but Donald Trump doesn't think that way. Jake is hoping that this "movement" can be put to the grave and urges people to vote to prevent Trump having another 4 years in power.
- Jonathan agrees and feels that there are many inflection points in the world.
- Jake highlights that China has surrounded Taiwan with a fleet of vessels.
- Jonathan feels that this election period is emboldening people around the world to do things to provoke a crisis in the US to make the Biden administration look bad. He also feels that the Biden administration is afraid of doing anything too overt about Ukraine because it will divert attention away from domestic issues and feed simplistic arguments.
- Jake agrees and highlights that when you poll Americans, military aid to Ukraine isn't a top priority even though 60% of Americans support it.
- Jake thinks that the US election needs to be over so that the focus and narrative can shift and Trump can go away.
- Jonathan agrees - he feels that the more the Democrats talk about Ukraine, the more it becomes a partisan issue and feeds the narrative that supporting Ukraine is a Democrat and not a US thing.
How will a Harris administration deal with Ukraine?
🎦 14:50-17:18⏩
- Jonathan asks Jake how he thinks things will change if Harris wins the election.
- Jake thinks the restrictions on long-range weapons inside Russia will be lifted. He believes that a Trump victory will be bad for Ukraine as the allies would be scrambling to work with him.
- Jake mentions that Olaf Sholz has already said that he knew Trump was going to win and is prepared to do what he can to appease Trump.
- Jake believes that if Harris wins and the Democrats control the House of Representatives that there will be another security assistance package of around $60 billion which should help Ukraine for another year.
- Jake acknowledges that it's up to Ukraine to decide how long they want to fight for. He supports Zelensky's decisions as leader of the Ukrainian people.
- Jake believes that Russia can't last another year. He feels that North Korea sending 10,000 troops to Ukraine is just a political stunt that might extend the war by 10 days. He highlights that Russia would need to mobilise 300,000 men to fight for another year, something he doesn't think is possible.
- Jake feels that Russia is already struggling economically.
Russia is struggling economically
🎦 17:18-18:35⏩
- Jake thinks that Putin was smart enough to put aside $300 billion to survive sanctions, but there are a lot of bad omens for the Russian economy. He mentions that Kyrylo Budanov (Head of the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine) said that things will start to get really bad by summer 2024.
- Jake highlights that it's difficult to know how bad things are in Russia as Putin controls the press and media but reports suggest that many Russians are struggling.
- Jake mentions that 40-50% of the average Russian's take home pay goes on groceries and that inflation in supermarkets is bad.
- Jake mentions Tucker Carlson and how he visited Moscow and reported how cheap food was, but highlights that this is relative to wages and you can't compare supermarket prices in Moscow with New York.
- Jonathan agrees that there are many indicators that Russia is in a precarious economic position.
Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has destroyed the lives of ordinary Russians and the oligarchs
🎦 18:35-20:33⏩
- Jonathan wonders how unhappy people in the Kremlin and FSB are with Putin as a result of the war.
- Jake thinks that everyone in Putin's inner circle must be upset as they've all lost out.
- Jake uses the example of Vladimir Solovyov who owned 5 villas in Italy. He can no longer travel to the EU, but this was completely unnecessary as the oligarchs were already wealthy and living fabulous lives.
- Jake highlights that Solovyov had illegitimate children with a WNBA player in New York and used to travel to the US every other month, a lifestyle that has now been destroyed by Putin's ideological ambition.
- Jake thinks that invading Ukraine in 2022 will go down in history as one of the worst political and military decisions.
Potential psychological impact of North Korea's involvement in the Ukraine war and the "Mongol horde" narrative
🎦 20:33-21:36⏩
- Jonathan asks Jake about North Korea and if 10,000-12,000 troops is enough to make a difference. He acknowledges that Jake has said not to worry too much, but wonders what the psychological impact will be on Ukrainians.
- Jake feels that it will be a "kick in the ghoulies" as it comes at a time when Ukrainian morale is low because of attrition, restrictions on long range strikes into Russia and the upcoming US election.
- Jake feels that this could embolden North Korea to send more help and could open the door for China to become more involved.
- Jake thinks that China has been careful not to overtly supply weapons to Russia (although some companies have). He feels that China has avoided becoming overtly involved in case sanctions are imposed. China is focused on building up its military for a potential attack on Taiwan in the next 2 years.
- Jake thinks that North Korea sending 10,000 troops to Ukraine is a propaganda exercise to make the West feel like they should give up, capitulate and negotiate with Russia. He feels that Russia is pushing the narrative that this is a fight against 2 nuclear powers and that Ukraine faces an "endless horde of Mongols".
North Korean defector Oh Chung-sung
🎦 21:36-25:45⏩
- Jake refers to the case of Oh Chung-sung (a North Korean border guard at the DMZ who defected to South Korea). Jake made a video about this 2 days ago.
- Oh Chung-sung was the 25 year old son of a North Korean General. Only the most trusted North Korean soldiers are stationed at the DMZ. Oh Chung-sung rammed a vehicle through a barricade and was shot 5 times, losing half his blood. He was rescued by South Korean soldiers.
- The surgeon who operated on Oh Chung-sung said he was one of the most unhealthy people he had ever seen. He had hepatitis B, tuberculosis and parasitic worms (including a 27cm tapeworm).
- When asked why he defected Oh Chung-sung said he wanted Choco Pies (a chocolate snack).
- Jake doesn't believe that the 10,000 North Korean soldiers sent to Ukraine are elite soldiers or special forces. He thinks they're nobodies from nowhere who have never seen the internet or a smartphone.
- Jake thinks that these soldiers will never be allowed to return to North Korea as they are now contaminated after seeing what the outside world looks like. If they return to North Korea they will be seen as dangerous contagions.
- Jake feels that this is a one way ticket for the 10,000 North Korean soldiers who will defect, surrender or die.
Are we already in World War III? And how will the allies react to North Korean involvement in Ukraine?
🎦 25:45-27:40⏩
- Jonathan acknowledges a question from a Norwegian viewer (Johnny Nedregard) about whether France and Poland will react to North Korean involvement. He wonders how the West will react and if this means we're already in World War III.
- Jake thinks that democracies and capitalist economies are only interested in the next quarterly earnings report or election. He feels that this is a disadvantage compared to autocracies who don't have to worry about public opinion.
- However, Jake feels that dictatorships are actually weak and brittle and that democracies have won most wars in the last 100-150 years.
- He uses the example of World War II and how the image of Hitler and fascism appear powerful but this doesn't reflect the historical records of democracies vs autocracies in war.
- Jake feels that autocracies have to spend too much money, manpower and resources controlling their populations. He contrasts this with democracies such as the US where the president doesn't have to worry about people rising up and killing them.
Russia and China are prone to revolution
🎦 27:40-28:31⏩
- Jake feels that China is a powder keg and that if it wasn't for their censorship and control of the internet (the Great Firewall) there would be a revolution.
- Jake also feels that Russia is prone to collapsing and breaking up. Russia has already had 2 revolutions in the last 105 years.
How is Russia managing to control the narrative about the war in Ukraine?
🎦 28:31-29:35⏩
- Jonathan picks up on Jake's comment about revolutions in Russia and wonders how they've managed to keep a hold on things, contrasting this with the Soviet-Afghan war which ended partly because of body bag counts and public discontent.
- Jonathan highlights that Russia is doing a good job disinforming their own population and spending money disinforming populations elsewhere,
- Jonathan wonders if Russia is more brittle than we are giving them credit for.
Corruption is a feature not a bug in Russia
🎦 29:35-32:31⏩
- Jake highlights that the whole structure of Russia is built on corruption and that everyone has to be complicit in this to make them complicit in the crimes of the state.
- Jake thinks that Putin knows that all of his inner circle and top generals are corrupt and skims money off the top and is OK with this as it keeps everyone loyal.
- However, Jake highlights that if the economy starts contracting due to the war, sanctions etc. this will impact the amount of money everyone is getting and that will cause problems.
- Jake feels that human nature is the same everywhere - people expect to make more money each year and this isn't happening.
- Jake uses the example of Ramzan Kadyrov declaring a blood feud against the state Duma senators from Dagestan. Jake feels that this is just posturing and that Kadyrov just wants more money and power.
- Jake uses the example of the shooting at the Wildberries headquarters (an online retailer) as a sign of things to come - he thinks this is all about money and power.
Putin is purging generals but is motivated by political expediency not a genuine desire to stamp out corruption
🎦 32:31-34:30⏩
- Jonathan picks up on Jake's comment about corruption and highlights that Putin has been purging top generals in the MOD, not because he wants to stamp out corruption, but because it is convenient.
- Jake thinks that Putin only wants to reduce corruption so that the war machine runs more efficiently.
- Jake feels that these purges are political and about loyalty to Putin e.g. Sergei Surovikin was removed because of his involvement in the Wagner rebellion and Shoigu's top deputies have also been purged.
- Jake thinks that all of this is inevitable and that the purges will never stop.
Viewer comment about Russia fighting World War III
🎦 34:30-35:08⏩
- Jonathan shares a comment from Ukrainian viewer "Mark Bisku" who lives in Canada. Mark highlights that Russia is fighting World War III whereas the West isn't.
The US is drip feeding aid to Ukraine
🎦 35:08-37:17⏩
- Jonathan highlights the $425 million aid package announced by the US and how the Biden administration has drained all of the funds under the President's drawdown authority (under the Foreign Assistance Act). However, Jonathan points out that this is separate from the $60 billion allocated by Congress in May.
- Jake explains that the US is drip-feeding aid because the Pentagon has to plan for the worst case scenario (i.e. a Trump victory) as all military aid to Ukraine would likely stop in January 2025.
- Jake highlights that the US is trying to make the aid stretch as long as possible as it is possible that Mike Johnson (Speaker of the House) could block a vote for aid as he did earlier in the year.
- Jake believes that there will be a huge surge in aid to Ukraine if a Republican controlled house can be avoided.
- Jonathan is frustrated that the US has been slow to order critical equipment such as Patriots and interceptors. He feels that the US has been reluctant to make big orders despite the fact that it takes time to manufacture this equipment. He feels that the US is not at war and that they are only prepared to support Ukraine with its spare capacity.
The US and NATO are reluctant to do anything that might negatively impact their economies or shift elections
🎦 37:17-38:27⏩
- Jake highlights that the US and UK are not at war and that they are only supporting Ukraine with their spare capacity. He feels that they are reluctant to do anything that might negatively impact their economies or shift elections as this could lead to far-right pro Russian parties taking power.
- Jake acknowledges that people are dying and that this should matter more than money.
Is the US sharing intelligence with Ukraine?
🎦 38:27-40:26⏩
- Jonathan highlights Zelensky's victory plan and how he explicitly mentioned the need for intelligence sharing (including satellite imagery) from the allies. He assumed that this was already happening, but Jake feels that this isn't the case.
- Jake thinks that the US is sharing some intelligence, but not all of it, particularly where this would expose US assets operating in Russia or Belarus. He highlights that undercover agents risk their lives.
- Jonathan mentions a story about how Trump revealed information about an asset to a foreign leader which then led to the asset's death.
- Jake highlights how Trump stole classified documents and kept them in a bathroom in Mar-a-Lago. Some of this information was about nuclear secrets.
- Jake mentions that there are first-hand accounts of Trump showing classified information to foreigners. He feels that Trump may have exposed US citizens working undercover.
Should Ukraine mobilise 18-25 year old men?
🎦 40:26-43:55⏩
- Jonathan picks up on a question from "Goose Princeton" about how tenable it is to protect 18-25 year old Ukrainian men from conscription as the war heads towards its third year.
- Jake points out that in the US, 18 year old men have to register for the Selective Service (the draft) which hasn't been used since 1972. He feels that you shouldn't force people to fight who don't want to as this caused problems in Vietnam.
- Jake feels that the situation in Ukraine is different, as the country is facing genocide. He thinks that 18-25 year old men should be doing something productive to support the war effort (e.g. working on the railways or in munitions factories). He feels that there shouldn't be many men of this age working in coffee shops,
- Jake highlights that this is a total war of survival and that everyone should be mobilised. He acknowledges that this is just his outsider perspective.
- Jonathan feels that Ukraine is trying to protect a cohort of people that it is skilling up. He feels that the military is protecting the country, but this is pointless if the country is destroyed from within.
- Jonathan feels that mobilising all 18 year old men would leave the country with no skills beyond the army and make it difficult to rebuild after the war.
- Jake mentions that he's been told that the reason for not conscripting 18-25 year olds is that this is the age when men meet women, have children and start families, a cultural argument that he doesn't understand as he feels that men can start families in their 30s.
- Jake highlights that he doesn't want to impose his values on another culture.
- Jonathan thinks that a compromise will likely be reached.
North Korea, South Korea, Nukes and the Budapest Memorandum
🎦 43:55-51:07⏩
- Jonathan picks up on a number of questions from viewers about North Korea and South Korea.
- Jonathan wonders what will happen if North Korea upsets the apple cart by becoming involved in Ukraine. He asks Jake to share his experience of South Korea.
- Jake explains that he taught English in South Korea for 6 years and is familiar with the culture and history. He feels that North Korea is a prison camp controlled by the Kim family who have achieved 3 generations of power because people are too busy trying to survive to mount a rebellion.
- Jake feels that North Korea is even more Orwellian than 1984 - the population have been brainwashed for 70 years to never question the Kim family.
- Jake feels that people can snap (he uses the example of a bodyguard choking Kim Jong-un) but doesn't know what would happen next.
- Jonathan mentions Zelensky's speech at the EU where he highlighted that Ukraine had two choices - build nukes or join NATO. Jonathan asks Jake if Ukraine should build nukes, given that the Budapest memorandum was broken.
- Jake points out that everyone knew that the threat to Ukraine's security was always from Russia.
- Jake points out that the Budapest Memorandum wasn't a treaty (as it was never ratified by the US Senate) and lost all legal standing once Bill Clinton left office.
- Jake feels that Ukraine was naive to think that Russia would honour the Budapest Memorandum and that Ukraine should have joined NATO as quickly as possible, particularly when Dmitry Medvedev was in power.
- Jonathan agrees that this would have prevented the war.
- Jonathan picks up on a question from "Matt Kirk" about the readiness of Russia's nuclear capability, given that the Sarmat ICBM test failed. He points out that 3 out of 4 of the Satan 2 tests have failed.
- Jake clarifies that this is a failure of the delivery system, not the warhead itself.
- Jake feels that Russia's nuclear warheads would probably have a good success rate, highlighting that it is very difficult to hit a target 10,000km away.
- Jake doesn't know how many of Russia's nuclear weapons are deployed but acknowledges that it's probably thousands. He points out that even with a 50% failure rate, this doesn't matter, as Russia has always compensated for lack of accuracy with overwhelming numbers.
- Jake highlights that the US has been trying to get Russia to reduce their nuclear stockpile for the last 30 years.
Nukes are expensive
🎦 51:07-53:41⏩
- Jake points out that it doesn't matter who has the most nukes, as the US has superior accuracy and conventional systems.
- Jonathan highlights how expensive nuclear weapons are and mentions a conversation he had with his son's rugby coach (former Navy) about defence spending in the UK. Most of the money is spent on pensions and nuclear weapons.
- Jake agrees that this is also an issue in the US, with a lot of the budget being spent on pensions and TRICARE (the health system for US service members and their families).
- Jake and Jonathan agree that it's absurd that the US has to have its own healthcare system for service members and their families because it doesn't have a national health system, something which other countries do.
- Jonathan is surprised that no-one has ever highlighted this before.
Superchats/Thanks
🎦 53:41-55:57⏩
- Jonathan thanks a number of viewers for their superchats and memberships:
- Richard Bennett
- Niels Clement
- James Cowley
- Johnny Nedregard
- Kevin Force
How will the war in Ukraine impact mental health?
🎦 55:57-58:53⏩
- Jonathan reads a question from "Goose Springsteen" about the mental health impact of an unsatisfactory outcome in Ukraine.
- Jonathan acknowledges that he hadn't formally thought about this before, but feels that he would really struggle with this, given how important a Ukrainian victory is. He feels that this would be an example that "shit happens" and that we need to work harder to prevent it.
- Jake is more optimistic. He feels that he was born with good genetics and is not prone to negative feelings and anxiety. He tries to practice mindfulness and gratitude, which he feels helps.
- Jake feels that Ukraine will survive, even if this is a sad chapter in their history. He points out that Ukraine has survived terrible defeats before and that it's important to think long term.
- Jake is committed to supporting Ukraine and plans to continue making content about global democracy, human rights and the fight against autocracy.
- Jonathan agrees that this is bigger than just one war.
Iran and China aren't finished
- Jake feels that Iran and China aren't finished and will continue to pose a threat. He thinks that North Korea is unlikely to do anything that would significantly impact the global order but that the Kim regime is unlikely to collapse anytime soon.
- Jake will continue to make content about these issues, highlighting that we only have one life and it's important to make a difference.
- Jonathan agrees - it's important to try to make the world a better place.
Disinformation is a problem and Elon Musk is an anarchist who is causing chaos
- Jonathan thanks "Power Andy" for his superchat.
- Jonathan highlights that both he and Jake are working in the information space and are fighting against Russian disinformation which is affecting elections and platforms such as Twitter.
- Jonathan shares a comment from viewer "Sarah" who highlights that Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson are spreading disinformation and wonders if the US Department of Justice can do something about it.
- Jake acknowledges that the US does have treason laws, but that it would be difficult to use these against Elon Musk as it would look like the Biden administration is cracking down on dissent in the run up to the election.
- Jake thinks that Trump benefitted from criminal proceedings against him as it gave him a platform.
- Jake points out that Trump has committed a number of crimes and was under investigation but the Supreme Court granted Trump complete immunity because he was president (a ruling that Jake compares to a dictatorship).
- Jake believes that the decision was made to let things ride, trust the American people and have a public debate. However, he feels that all of the court cases will come back after the election and new charges will be filed against people who broke campaign finance laws.
- Jake highlights that Elon Musk appeared on stage with Trump to campaign for him in Pennsylvania, something which is illegal (coordinating with political campaigns).
- Elon Musk has admitted that he could go to jail if Trump doesn't win.
- Jake highlights that Musk has given $75 million to a Super PAC and is trying to cause as much chaos as possible and is an anarchist.
- Jake thinks that Elon Musk will leave the country if he's found guilty of any crimes as he doesn't care about America.
Elon Musk is guilty of what he accuses the deep state of being
- Jake thinks that Elon Musk is trying to be what he accuses George Soros and Jewish billionaires of being.
- Jonathan thanks a number of viewers for their superchats and support.
- Jonathan acknowledges a question from "King Raccoon" about the NAFO fundraiser.
- Jonathan has another question for Jake from "Jake Bro" about whether public support for Ukraine in South Korea could lead to direct military aid to Ukraine.
Could South Korea provide direct military aid to Ukraine?
- Jonathan mentions that there's been speculation that South Korea could be triggered into providing aid if North Korea gets involved, but South Korea has publicly stated that they're waiting for Russia to give technology (and knowledge) to North Korea.
- Jake thinks that South Korea has been trying to avoid provoking North Korea into sending lethal aid to Russia.
- However, Jake highlights that North Korea is now directly involved. Some South Korean officials have said that if North Korean soldiers are seen in Ukraine then they will send direct lethal aid to Ukraine.
- Jake explains that South Korea has been sending NATO standard artillery shells to the US which has allowed the US to send shells from its own inventory to Ukraine.
- Jake points out that South Korea is a defence industrial powerhouse (it's partnering with Poland to build K1 and K2 tanks) and that they have a lot of capacity to help.
- Jake acknowledges that South Korea has jumped into the top 10 arms exporters during the war.
- Jonathan wonders if South Korea is happy about North Korea sending shells to Russia (as these are shells that can't be used against them).