Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News - Peacekeepers, Huge French Aid
Table of Contents 📖
"We're giving stuff to Ukraine because actually it's beneficial for us from a strategic, like geopolitical level, but also from our own military industrial complex level, but also our own military capability level. It's just super important."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:25⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War News Update, mentioning it's the third or fourth part of the day's coverage on 27th March 2023.
- He clarifies this update focuses on military aid, following previous updates on geopolitics and peace negotiations.
- Jonathan thanks viewers for their support of the NAFO patch fundraiser, highlighting its near completion and incredible donations, including a recent £20,000 contribution.
- He encourages last-minute contributions to reach the target, mentioning Romain Trocumet's campaign for NAFO and expressing gratitude for everyone's help.
France announces additional €2 billion in military aid for Ukraine
🎦 01:41-03:46⏩
- Jonathan discusses French President Macron's increasing role in Ukraine support, noting his strong bond with Zelenskyy and Starmer.
- France and the UK are expected to be the backbone of European support for Ukraine in negotiations.
- Macron announced an additional €2 billion in military aid for Ukraine the previous night.
- This is considered significant as France has been rhetorically strong but less forthcoming with aid compared to Germany.
- The aid package includes:
- Milan anti-tank missiles
- Mika missiles for Mirage 2000-5F aircraft
- Mistral short-range missiles
- VAB Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs) being phased out by France (Ukraine gets first refusal on obsolete equipment)
- AMX-10RC reconnaissance vehicles
- Kamikaze drones
- The fleet of Mirage 2000s for Ukraine will also be increased, with numbers speculated to be between 3 and 24, though the exact quantity is unconfirmed.
- France may seek additional Mirage 2000-5Fs from third-party countries as they are still in use by the French Air Force but are likely to be replaced soon.
Macron discusses potential deployment of European troops and sanctions against Russia
🎦 04:10-04:30⏩
- Macron addressed the possibility of deploying European troops to Ukraine, stating that decisions would be made nationally and forces could be positioned in "peace zones" within Ukrainian territory.
- Macron stated that it is currently too early to consider lifting sanctions against Russia.
Breakdown of French Military Aid Delivery Timelines
🎦 04:31-05:29⏩
- France will finance the delivery of more Caesar self-propelled guns to Ukraine.
- Most of the announced French military aid, excluding the additional Mirage 2000s, is expected to be transferred to Ukraine in 2025.
- The transfer of Mirage 2000s is contingent on the training of Ukrainian pilots.
- The first batch of equipment, worth hundreds of millions of euros, is expected to be delivered quickly from existing French stocks. This likely includes VABs and AMX-10s.
- Equipment currently in production, such as armoured vehicles, missiles, and Caesars, will be transferred in the coming weeks and hopefully fairly imminently.
French Aid to boost Ukrainian Domestic Production
🎦 05:29-05:42⏩
- Part of the €2 billion French aid package will be allocated to equipment production within Ukraine through partnerships with French companies.
- This reflects a growing trend of international support aiming to bolster Ukraine's own defence industry, similar to the "Danish model".
Low Loss Rate of French Caesar Guns in Ukraine
🎦 05:53-06:21⏩
- French sources report a significantly lower loss rate of Caesar self-propelled artillery in Ukraine (10%) compared to other equivalent guns (30-35%).
- This is attributed to the Caesar's mobility, precision, and resilience, highlighting its superiority on the ground according to the French source La Tribune.
- Jonathan notes this is positive news.
Analysis of Caesar Gun Survivability in Ukraine
🎦 06:21-07:59⏩
- Jonathan considers possible reasons for the lower loss rate of Caesar guns, moving beyond just "force fields".
- He suggests potential factors like:
- Strategic deployment in safer, concealed areas.
- Crew skill and tactics.
- He discounts "shoot and scoot" tactics as the primary reason, arguing that modern threats are more from reconnaissance and FPV drones rather than counter-battery fire which has been degraded on the Russian side.
- He notes that stationary positions in tree lines are also now more vulnerable in winter due to lack of foliage cover.
Spain delivers 105mm Howitzers to Ukraine
🎦 07:59-09:00⏩
- Spain has delivered 10 OTO Melara M56 105mm howitzers to Ukraine, as confirmed by the Spanish General Staff.
- Jonathan reviews the specifications of the OTO Melara M56 howitzer via Wikipedia.
- Key features:
- Rate of fire: 8 rounds per minute (good)
- In service since 1957
- Maximum firing range: 10,000 meters (10 km) (short range)
- Jonathan concludes these are short-range howitzers, unlikely to offer significant distance compared to other howitzers typically used in the conflict.
Next Ramstein Meeting Announced for April 11th
🎦 09:00-09:13⏩
- The next Ramstein meeting, focused on military aid to Ukraine, is scheduled for April 11th.
- The meeting will be chaired by the UK Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey.
- The aim is to provide further military assistance and support to Ukraine.
EU States resist plan for cheap loans to boost defence spending
🎦 09:13-10:39⏩
- European states, led by France, Italy, and Spain, are resisting a European Commission plan to issue cheap loans to turbocharge defence spending.
- The concern is that this would increase already high national debt burdens.
- This resistance is a setback to Ursula von der Leyen's push for greater European military autonomy.
- Her proposal included a €150 billion loan package and easing EU fiscal rules to encourage defence investment and reduce reliance on US protection.
- Jonathan expresses frustration at the difficulty of making decisions in Europe due to differing national interests and the complexity of EU politics, comparing it to "herding cats".
Reports of Collapse of European Troop Deployment Plan for Ukraine
🎦 10:39-11:41⏩
- The Wall Street Journal reports that the Franco-British plan to send European troops (peacekeepers) to Ukraine has collapsed after a meeting of leaders.
- Despite Macron's push, no country committed to providing troops.
- Reasons cited include:
- European fears of Russian retaliation.
- Lack of US security guarantees (and some US officials opposing the plan).
- This suggests US reluctance might be a significant factor, not just European unwillingness.
Macron insists intention to send deterrent forces to Ukraine remains
🎦 11:41-12:39⏩
- Despite the Wall Street Journal report, Macron stated after the summit that the intention to send deterrent forces to Ukraine still stands.
- There is conflicting information, with some sources refuting the Wall Street Journal's claim and stating commitments were made.
- The Guardian's live blog indicates Macron outlined a process for:
- Examining legal options for troop deployment.
- Continued support for the Ukrainian army.
- Defining a Europe-led reassurance force.
- Macron emphasises continued support for Ukraine and criticises Russia for intensifying attacks while pretending to engage in talks.
- He confirms further aid commitments from participating countries, including France's €2 billion package.
- He reiterated that now is not the time to lift sanctions against Russia.
Macron outlines steps for potential European force and future security guarantees
🎦 12:39-14:20⏩
- Participating countries agreed to maintain increased pressure on Russia, including its "shadow fleet."
- Foreign ministers are tasked with examining legal questions related to forces supporting a ceasefire and are to report back in three weeks.
- While there's no current unanimity on sending a European-led reassurance force, Macron suggests it can proceed without unanimity.
- Future security guarantees for Ukraine will be based on three pillars:
- A strong Ukrainian army (with a joint Franco-British mission to Kyiv to assess needs).
- A reassurance force (not stationed on the front lines, but offering strategic support).
- A broader push to rearm Europe and represent a unified European view.
- Notably, American security guarantees are not explicitly listed as a pillar, suggesting a potential European-led approach.
Franco-British leadership in European support for Ukraine
🎦 14:20-14:42⏩
- Macron and Starmer (UK) are highlighted as driving the momentum in European support for Ukraine.
- Germany's Olaf Scholz was present and voiced support, but Jonathan notes the potential shift in German politics with a likely change in Chancellor.
Bulgaria offers to host Black Sea Maritime Coordination Centre
🎦 15:18-15:23⏩
- Bulgaria has offered to host a Maritime Coordination Centre to monitor the Black Sea.
- This is seen as positive, particularly for Bulgaria and Romania who were concerned about Black Sea security and ceasefire proposals.
Estonian PM: Only Ukraine decides peace plan
🎦 15:33-15:37⏩
- The Estonian Prime Minister stated, "There's only one plan, Ukraine's plan," reinforcing that peace terms are for Ukraine to decide, not external powers like the US and Russia.
Over 200 military planners working on Ukraine operations
🎦 15:37-16:27⏩
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that over 200 military planners from 30+ countries are working on operations related to Ukraine, including airborne, naval and ground missions.
- Jonathan interprets this in relation to Macron's "reassurance force" concept, suggesting it may be connected to the Franco-British mission to Kyiv to assess Ukraine's army needs.
Details of Deterrence Force for Ukraine
🎦 17:47-18:23⏩
- Macron describes a "deterrence force" to operate in Ukraine, involving multiple countries and covering sea, air, and land domains.
- This force is part of a broader security package and will be led by Britain.
- Macron clarifies that unanimity is not required to introduce these deterrence forces and Russia cannot dictate their deployment.
- Jonathan concludes that the UK appears to be taking a leading role in this initiative.
Ukraine's Growing Military Strength is Underrated
🎦 18:23-22:08⏩
- Analyst Philip O'Brien highlights the "remarkably underreported story" of Ukraine's growing military strength as a factor in peace talks.
- He argues that focusing solely on Ukrainian difficulties ("rubble", "trouble") ignores their successes: holding back Russia, advances in some areas, degrading the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and targeting Russia's hydrocarbon sector.
- Jonathan reiterates his long-held view that the Ukrainian armed forces are consistently upgrading and becoming stronger each month due to Western weaponry (Mirage 2000s, F-16s, tanks, howitzers).
- Conversely, Russian forces are being downgraded over time, relying on older, refurbished equipment, including potentially North Korean supplies.
- While Russia may have had a temporary boost from North Korean equipment, it is not high quality, and their overall military capability is degrading.
- Ukraine's air force is being upgraded while Russia's degrades.
- Ukraine's main challenge is manpower, but Western equipment aid is significant.
- Ukraine is also massively upscaling its own domestic weapons production, including mortars and drones.
- Philip Sobran and Elena Halushka emphasize that despite "doom-mongering," Ukrainian military capabilities are growing and that a victorious Ukraine is Europe's best security guarantee.
Ukraine produces 66 of its own 120mm Mortars
🎦 22:08-23:12⏩
- Ukrainian Armored Vehicles company has delivered a batch of 66 MP120 120mm mortars to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- This is significant as mortars are vital for infantry support, as highlighted by Andrew Perpetua.
- It indicates the growth of Ukraine's own military industrial base, even after past issues with faulty domestically produced mortar bombs.
Ukraine seeks enhanced US-Ukraine defence industry cooperation
- Kateryna Mikhailko, Director General of Techforce in Ukraine, states that the question should not be "Can Ukraine survive without support?" but "How can Ukraine enhance its cooperation with the US defense industry to make this partnership work?"
- She emphasizes Ukraine's battle-hardened military, emerging defence industry, and battlefield-tested technologies as valuable assets for cooperation.
- Ukraine offers not just a recipient of aid, but a partner with unique experience and capabilities to share.
Patriot systems in Ukraine shoot down 100 ballistic missiles
🎦 24:07-25:34⏩
- Yuri Ignat reports that Patriot missile defence systems provided to Ukraine have shot down approximately 100 ballistic missiles, mostly targeting Kyiv.
- Jonathan speculates about Ukraine's reliance on the US for Kyiv's protection, suggesting it could be due to Patriot batteries, maintenance, interceptor missiles, or vital US intelligence and targeting support.
- He questions if this dependence explains Zelenskyy's relationship with the US, or if Zelenskyy is strategically managing the US while waiting for stronger European support to materialise.
- He acknowledges the complexity of achieving unified European action.
High Cost of Starlink Alternatives
🎦 25:34-26:39⏩
- Jakub Janowski discusses the challenges of creating alternatives to Starlink satellite internet for Ukraine.
- UTELSAT CEO indicates significant financing is needed for satellite procurement (from Airbus) and development of IRIS-2.
- Janowski highlights the enormous cost of building a Starlink-comparable system, estimating €10 billion+, possibly €30 billion if less efficient than SpaceX.
- This underscores the substantial investment and cost-efficiency required for any Starlink alternative.
Ukraine seeks combat units, not just peacekeepers
🎦 26:39-27:42⏩
- Ukraine is expecting the arrival of combat units from Europe, not just symbolic peacekeepers, according to the Deputy Head of the Presidential Office, Ihor Zhokov.
- Zhokov emphasized that any deployed soldiers must be ready for real combat operations, not just peacekeeping roles.
- He stresses that effective deterrence requires a credible threat and the willingness to act on it.
Denmark accelerates conscription for women
🎦 27:42-28:17⏩
- Denmark is accelerating the introduction of mandatory military conscription for women, moving the start date from 2027 to 2026.
- This decision is aimed at strengthening Denmark's armed forces in response to the growing threat from Russia, reflecting broader European concerns.
Sweden plans major rearmament and increased Ukraine aid
🎦 28:17-29:29⏩
- Sweden plans to rearm its military with a $2.5 billion investment.
- The government aims to increase defence spending from 2% to approximately 3.5% of GDP by 2030, a substantial increase.
- Sweden also plans to increase support for Ukraine in 2025, raising it from $2.5 billion to $4 billion.
- Jonathan expresses hope for increased aid from Norway and Sweden reaching Ukraine soon.
UK Navy to arm ships with Dragonfire laser system - possibly already in Ukraine
🎦 29:29-32:47⏩
- The British Navy will arm ships with the Dragonfire laser system, following the UK being the first nation to discuss laser weapons, with South Korea and the US also showing interest.
- There are rumours suggesting Dragonfire lasers may already be in use in Ukraine.
- Jonathan speculates, based on news and rumours, that Ukraine likely has access to at least one Dragonfire laser system.
- Dragonfire's capabilities:
- Range up to 1 kilometre
- Can hit a pound coin at 1 kilometre
- Cost to fire: approximately 10p
- Jonathan highlights the potential value of battlefield feedback from Ukraine for improving the Dragonfire system and UK military technology.
- He argues that providing aid to Ukraine is strategically beneficial for the UK, both geopolitically and for military-industrial complex and military capability development through real-world testing and feedback.
Russia moving North Korean equipment to front via Crimea
🎦 32:47-35:41⏩
- Russia is moving North Korean military equipment to the front lines via occupied Crimea.
- While regrettable that this equipment will harm Ukrainians, it also indicates Russia's depletion of its own resources and reliance on North Korean supplies.
- Jonathan raises the question of whether North Korean operators are accompanying the equipment and potentially operating within occupied Ukrainian territory.
- He discusses the Russia-North Korea bilateral agreement, similar to NATO Article 5, and the presence of North Korean troops in Kursk (Russia) as a "scarecrow" tactic.
- He speculates that North Korean involvement in occupied Ukrainian territories could be a "game changer" in terms of international reactions and allies' responses to North Korea.
- He believes using North Koreans in occupied territories is a significant risk for Russia.
Further reports of North Korean military aid to Russia
🎦 35:41-36:27⏩
- Reports indicate a further 3,000 North Korean troops were sent to Russia in early 2025, along with 220 self-propelled howitzers, multiple launch rocket systems, and ballistic missiles.
- This further emphasizes Russia's increasing dependence on North Korea and highlights the success of Ukrainian attrition efforts against Russian forces.
- Jonathan expresses Ukrainian frustration at managing to degrade Russian forces only for Russia to replenish with North Korean equipment and personnel.
Indian company deceives French manufacturer to supply Russia
🎦 36:27-38:41⏩
- An InformNapalm investigation revealed that Indian company Park Controls and Communications deceived a French manufacturer to supply equipment to Russian defence enterprises.
- Jonathan suggests this is a common occurrence, with Indian and Chinese companies potentially circumventing sanctions by falsely claiming end-use for non-military purposes (humorously using "badger jetpacks" as an example).
- He highlights the challenges of enforcing sanctions and closing loopholes, noting that the US is reportedly reducing its efforts in this area, potentially leaving it to European allies.
German politician accuses US of "changing sides"
🎦 38:41-39:12⏩
- Jonathan checks his thread and finds a report that Kiesewetter, an ally of German politician Friedrich Merz, has accused the US of "changing sides" regarding Ukraine support.
- This indicates a growing European sentiment and boldness in criticising the US approach to the conflict.
Ukraine acquires Soviet-era shells and rockets from Syria, possibly via Turkey
🎦 39:12-40:08⏩
- A Russian warblogger reports that Ukraine has obtained a large quantity of Soviet-era shells and rockets from Syria, potentially from former Syrian Arab Army stockpiles via Turkey.
- According to the Russian VOLT-8 Telegram channel, this has alleviated Ukraine's ammunition shortages for some legacy Soviet artillery systems.
- Ukraine can now afford to use salvos of 10-15 or even full packages of 40 rockets from systems like the Hrad MLRS.
Increased use of Soviet-era artillery by Ukraine, possibly due to Syrian supplies
🎦 40:08-40:59⏩
- The report also states Ukraine has ample 155mm ammunition.
- Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua's recent loss lists showed increased losses of older Soviet artillery pieces (like Gvozdikas), possibly indicating increased use due to the Syrian ammunition supplies.
- The Telegram channel claims Ukraine now has a "luxury" of 20-30 shells per gun.
Turkey likely facilitated Syrian ammunition transfer to Ukraine
🎦 40:59-41:40⏩
- ChrisO_wiki suggests that if the report is accurate, the munitions were likely exported to Ukraine via Turkey, presumably with Turkish government knowledge.
- He notes Turkey's significant role in supplying weapons to Ukraine, including Kirpi MRAPs.
- Jonathan concludes that this Syrian ammunition supply to Ukraine could well be true and would be positive news.
Wrap up
🎦 41:40-41:59⏩
- Jonathan concludes the update, thanking viewers for their support.
- He reminds viewers about the NAFO patch campaign, which is very close to completion with only about $300 left to reach the target.
- He thanks everyone for their donations and support and says goodbye.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
- TASK 2 - TOPIC TITLES:
- Read through the transcript and identify topic boundaries based on changes in subject.
- The first topic will always be "Hello Team".
- The last topic will always be "Wrap up".
- For each topic in between, write a concise, specific, and quantified title.
- Start numbering topics from 1.
- Pay attention to Ukrainian spellings (Kyiv, Odesa).
- Identify and correct misspellings (Artur Rehi, etc.).
- Ensure that topics are granular but not overly fragmented.
- TASK 3 - TOPIC TIMESTAMPS:
- For each topic identified in TASK 2, find the start and end timestamps in the transcript.
- Use MM:SS format for times under 1 hour and HH:MM:SS format for times over 1 hour.
- If a topic appears in multiple sections, record all timeframes separated by commas.
- Ensure the `id` attribute matches the `id` in the `
` tags.
- Check for gaps in timestamps to ensure all parts of the transcript are covered.
- Use `
` XML tags.
- TASK 4 - TOPIC SUMMARIES:
- For each topic, write a bullet point summary of the key information.
- Include context, sources, Jonathan's opinions, and any relevant user comments.
- Use British English.
- Correct spelling mistakes and grammatical errors in the transcript when summarising.
- Use markdown for emphasis if needed.
- Use `` XML tags.
- TASK 5 - QUOTE:
- Read through the transcript and select a significant quote from Jonathan.
- Ensure the quote makes sense out of context and is concise.
- Correct any errors in the quote and remove hesitations.
- Use `
` XML tags.
- TASK 6 - QUERIES:
- Review tasks 1-5 and note down any parts of the instructions or transcript that were unclear or caused confusion.
- If everything is clear, state that.
- Use `
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
` XML tags.
- Date Conversion: Be mindful of converting YYYYMMDD to DD/MM/YYYY date format.
- Topic Granularity: Decide on the appropriate level of detail for topic titles and summaries. Aim for specific and informative titles.
- Timestamp Accuracy: Ensure timestamps are accurately copied from the transcript.
- Spelling Corrections: Be prepared to correct misspellings in the transcript during summarisation and quote extraction, especially names and place names.
- British English: Write in British English consistently.
- All tasks addressed? Yes.
- All rules and guidance followed? Yes.
- XML format correct? Yes.
- All XML tags are correctly opened and closed? Yes.
- British English used? Yes.
- Ukrainian spellings used? Yes.
- Queries section included? Yes.
- XML structure is exactly as requested.
- All tags are correctly spelled and closed.
- Content within each tag is accurate and relevant.
- No extra information is added that is not in the transcript.
- All tasks are completed to the best of my ability.