Ukraine War Update NEWS: 3x AP's Equipment Loss Lists
Table of Contents 📖
"To lose four of them [M-46 howitzers], I think, is a bit of a problem. They've still got pretty good range, the M-46… But anyway, that they are using these means that they are drawing them out from deep reserves, and that shows that they just are churning through stockpiles of equipment."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an "extra" video, a hits and losses appendix, focusing on three newly released Andrew Perpetua loss lists from September 28th, 29th, and October 1st. He plans to analyse the figures, loss ratios and the types of equipment lost by both sides.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Overall Loss Ratios 28th Sept - 1st Oct
🎦 00:20-01:30⏩
Jonathan highlights the positive loss ratios for Ukraine:
- 28th September: 4:1 (Russian to Ukrainian losses)
- 29th September: 3:1 (Russian to Ukrainian losses)
- 1st October: 3:1 (Russian to Ukrainian losses, excluding civilian losses)
He notes that the decreasing ratios suggest some potential gains for the Russians, but overall these figures are good news for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Losses 28th September (Detailed)
🎦 01:30-02:09⏩
Jonathan observes that Ukrainian losses are insignificant, with a good damage-to-destroyed ratio. He lists the lost equipment:
- APCs: 4x M113s (Western-provided), some BMPs (old Soviet).
- IFVs: All BMPs (old Soviet)
- Other: 1x MT-LB (Soviet-era APC), a couple of unknown MRAPs.
Russian Losses 28th September (Detailed)
🎦 02:09-03:26⏩
Jonathan examines Russian losses, noting a worse destroyed/abandoned-to-damaged ratio than Ukraine:
- Artillery: 2x D-30s, 2x 2A36 "Giatsint-B" howitzers.
- Tanks: T-62s, T-72s, T-80s - approximately 10 in total.
- IFVs: Over 20 BMPs and BTRs.
- APCs: A variety of types, including MT-LBs.
- Other: "Quite a few" 4x4s, civilian vehicles, and trucks.
Ukrainian Losses 29th September (Detailed)
🎦 03:26-04:09⏩
Jonathan reviews Ukrainian losses, pointing out the significance of a damaged Leopard 2A6:
- Tanks: 1x Leopard 2A6 (damaged by an FPV drone)
- IFVs: A mix of BMPs and a Marder
- APCs: All Western-provided or Ukrainian-made, including:
- Novator APCs.
- M113s
- Humvees
- MRAPS
- Kirpis
- Turkish-supplied BMC Kirpis.
Russian Losses 29th September (Detailed)
🎦 04:09-05:55⏩
Jonathan analyses Russian losses, highlighting the appearance of a T-55 tank and numerous motorcycles as potential signs of equipment shortages:
- Artillery: Several D-30s and 2x 2S5 "Giatsint-S" self-propelled howitzers.
- Tanks: A range of tanks including a T-55A.
- IFVs: BMP-1s, BMP-2s, BMP-3s, BTRs, and BMDs.
- APCs: MT-LBs
- Other: "A host of" civilian vehicles and many motorcycles.
Jonathan finds the presence of a T-55, a tank from the 1950s, on the frontline unusual and suggests it could be due to a shortage of more modern tanks. The significant number of lost motorcycles across multiple days is also highlighted as a potential indicator of equipment problems for the Russians.
Return to top⤴️
Civilian Losses 1st October
🎦 05:55-06:27⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over the listing of six civilian vehicles hit by what he believes are likely drone-dropped bombs, potentially indicating war crimes, particularly in the Kherson region.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Losses 1st October (Detailed)
🎦 06:27-07:36⏩
Jonathan examines Ukrainian losses, noting an increase in Western-supplied equipment:
- Artillery: A couple of artillery pieces (not specified).
- Tanks: T-64s and T-80s
- IFVs:
- 1x Bradley (destroyed).
- 1x YPR-765 (abandoned).
- BMPs.
- APCs:
- 1x Stryker (destroyed).
- YPR-765s
- M113s
- Other Western-supplied APCs and MRAPS
- He observes that 100% of the IFVs and APCs lost were either Ukrainian-made or Western-supplied, marking a significant shift from earlier in the war.
Russian Losses 1st October (Detailed)
🎦 07:36-11:13⏩
Jonathan analyses Russian losses, highlighting the loss of valuable artillery systems and the use of old equipment:
- MLRS: 2x BM-21 Grads (destroyed).
- Artillery:
- 4x M-46 howitzers (all barrel destroyed).
- D-20s
- D-30s
- Tanks:
- 1x T-90M (destroyed).
- "A number of" other tanks (not specified).
- IFVs: BMP-1s, BMP-2s, BMP-3s, and BTRs (slightly better destroyed to damaged ratio).
- APCs: Mostly MT-LBs.
- Other: ATVs, "Desert Cross 1000-3" golf buggies
He points out the destruction of two BM-21 Grad MLRS, which are significant losses for the Russians. The loss of four M-46 howitzers with destroyed barrels raises concerns about Russia's ability to repair or replace these crucial components. The presence of M-46 howitzers, designed in 1946, is highlighted as another indicator of Russia drawing on older equipment reserves. The destruction of a T-90M, Russia's most modern tank, is also noted as a significant loss.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 11:13-11:22⏩
Jonathan summarises the significance of the equipment losses:
- The presence of outdated equipment like the T-55 and M-46 suggests potential equipment shortages for the Russians.
- The loss of multiple BM-21 Grad MLRS is a setback for Russia.
- The overall trend continues to show significantly higher equipment losses for Russia compared to Ukraine.
Jonathan thanks his viewers and signs off, promising to work on the main hits and losses video next.
Return to top⤴️
