Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
"This is Vladimir Putin as a dictator saying, 'you are all going to die for my weird objectives in Ukraine that completely are not necessary. We didn't need to do this and we weren't doing it. Everyone's surprised that we did it because it's so bonkers and self-serving, but we did it and I'm going to round you up off the streets and send you to your death over there'."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video, a Ukraine war update for 26th May 2024, explaining that he is a little behind on mapping and will be recording his news update a little earlier today.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
General Staff Figures and visually confirmed losses for 25/05/2024
🎦 00:20-03:32⏩
Jonathan begins by summarising the Ukrainian general staff figures, noting the decrease in Russian personnel and equipment losses, particularly tanks (12 lost) over the past few days. Jonathan believes this is due to the current fighting in the northern Kharkiv region where Ukrainian forces appear to have successfully halted the Russian offensive. Jonathan hypothesises that visually confirmed equipment losses published by Oryx/Andrew Perpetua also support this, noting the smaller numbers of Ukrainian equipment losses (including fewer Lancet loitering munition strikes against Ukrainian artillery).
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Jonathan's thoughts on the rationale behind destroying Russian military equipment
🎦 03:32-04:37⏩
Jonathan ponders on the rationale behind destroying damaged Russian tanks. He suggests it may be more beneficial to leave a damaged but recoverable tank and then destroy the recovery vehicle when it arrives. He contrasts this with luring the recovery vehicle in and destroying both the tank and recovery vehicle, preventing Russia from salvaging parts or using it again.
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Russian equipment losses 25/05/2024 (Oryx)
🎦 04:37-06:26⏩
Jonathan analyses visually confirmed Russian equipment losses, including a T-90M main battle tank, a 'tracked garden shed' and numerous infantry fighting vehicles. He discusses the use of motorcycles by the Russians in attacking trenches, questioning whether this is due to necessity or if they offer tactical advantages such as speed and agility.
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Evidence of the scale of Russian casualties in Ukraine
🎦 06:26-11:20⏩
Jonathan refers to reports in the Moscow Times, citing figures from demographers highlighting a surge in registered disabled people requiring wheelchairs, prostheses, and other rehabilitation equipment. This correlates with data suggesting significant Russian military casualties in Ukraine. Jonathan draws attention to a significant increase (42%) in those requiring rehabilitation equipment, particularly wheelchairs (81,000). He notes this increase is far higher than can be explained by an aging population, lending credence to assertions of high Russian casualties. The data also indicates a 30% increase in the number of men with disabilities aged 31-59 and 290,000 aged 18-30 - a record in that age category since data was first collected in 2016. Jonathan links this directly to estimates from UK's Ministry of Defence of approximately 450,000 Russian soldiers killed, wounded or missing.
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Ukrainian forces shoot down Russian Su-25
🎦 11:20-12:05⏩
Jonathan reports the downing of another Russian Su-25 aircraft, this time by Ukraine's 110th Mechanized Brigade, highlighting their effectiveness. This shootdown marks the eighth Su-25 lost to this brigade since the conflict began.
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Russian military column destroyed in Donbas
🎦 12:05-13:02⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a destroyed Russian military column in Donbas, destroyed by the 54th Brigade, speculating that a combination of mines, anti-tank guided missiles and artillery were likely responsible. He suggests that these losses are consistent with the figures from the Ukrainian general staff.
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Footage of Ukrainian drone destroying Russian T-90 tank
🎦 13:02-14:28⏩
Jonathan shares a video depicting a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian T-90 tank. The drone successfully hits the rear of the tank, immobilising it. A second drone then targets the vulnerable area between the turret and chassis, causing a catastrophic explosion that destroys the tank. Jonathan highlights the precision and effectiveness of the drone operators in this attack.
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Large Fire in Podolsk, Moscow
🎦 14:28-15:26⏩
Jonathan reports a large fire that broke out at a warehouse storing gas cylinders in Podolsk, Moscow. While the cause remains unconfirmed, speculation ranges from sabotage to an accident. Jonathan, quoting Tim White, believes incompetence is the most likely culprit, despite reports of explosions.
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Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine overnight 25/05-26/05/2024
🎦 15:26-18:48⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine, which he considers overdue, noting it involved fewer drones and missiles than expected (31 Shahed drones and 14 cruise missiles). He highlights that Ukraine's air defences successfully intercepted 100% of the incoming projectiles. Jonathan expresses surprise at the limited scale of the attack, speculating that Russia might be facing production constraints or testing new tactics. He suggests the primary target was likely Starokostiantyniv Air Base in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, believed to house the anticipated F-16 fighter jets. Jonathan reiterates his proposal of stationing F-16s in NATO countries and deploying them for specific missions from Ukraine to minimise their vulnerability. He highlights the historical precedent for this approach, citing similar tactics employed by the Soviet Union during the Korean War.
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Russian missile strike on Epicenter hypermarket in Kharkiv
🎦 18:48-26:07⏩
Jonathan discusses the Russian missile strike on the Epicenter hypermarket in Kharkiv, which resulted in 12 confirmed fatalities, 43 injuries and 16 people still missing. He highlights the international condemnation of this attack, describing it as a horrific act of terrorism. He shares a video message from Zelensky, who was in Kharkiv at the time, condemning the attack. Zelensky emphasises the ongoing terror faced by Kharkiv's residents for the third consecutive year and the deliberate targeting of civilians. Jonathan notes the challenges faced by Ukrainian air defences in countering short-range S-300 missile attacks from across the border in Russia, highlighting the need to neutralise these launchers.
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Attacks on Belgorod and Chernihiv
🎦 26:07-27:19⏩
Jonathan reports a retaliatory strike on Belgorod shortly after the Kharkiv attack, resulting in civilian casualties. He notes with scepticism the Kremlin's claims that Ukraine used Neptune anti-ship missiles and Vampire rockets in this attack, pointing out the improbability of these systems reaching Belgorod. Jonathan suggests Ukraine may be targeting Russian SAM launchers located within Belgorod's civilian infrastructure. He also reports missile strikes on Chernihiv.
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Ukrainian missile strike on Skadovsk
🎦 27:19-28:03⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions a Ukrainian missile strike on Skadovsk, which had been a frequent target due to the presence of Russian officers stationed in hotels following their retreat from Kherson city.
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Andrew Perpetua's Assessment of the War
🎦 28:03-31:54⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's assessment of the war, noting Perpetua's scepticism about Russia agreeing to a ceasefire while they believe they can still make gains on the battlefield. Perpetua believes Russia is heading for a 'brick wall' and running out of time. Jonathan agrees, highlighting the strain on the Russian economy and the depletion of military equipment and manpower. He emphasises the importance of considering the bigger picture, acknowledging Ukraine's struggles but arguing that their prospects for the future are better than Russia's.
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Russian military leadership changes and the 58th Combined Arms Army
🎦 31:54-33:48⏩
Jonathan draws attention to the recent upheaval in the Russian military leadership, with the sacking and arrest of numerous high-ranking officials. He specifically mentions the arrest of the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army, leading to reports of the unit refusing orders. Jonathan suggests these internal issues, combined with the economic challenges and international sanctions, indicate the significant problems Russia faces in achieving its objectives.
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Jonathan's analysis of Russia's options and constraints
🎦 33:48-36:05⏩
Jonathan analyses Russia's options, stating that a national mobilisation, while giving them a fighting chance of achieving their goals, would cripple the economy and likely provoke widespread unrest. He uses the example of the missile attacks, arguing that if Russia had more missiles available, they would have used them in larger numbers to overwhelm Ukraine's air defenses, suggesting they are constrained by production limitations. Jonathan concludes that Russia is 'in a bit of trouble' with missile and drone production and unable to mobilise fully for political and economic reasons. He contends that while Ukraine also faces challenges, they retain more 'elbow room' due to the option of further mobilisation of their population.
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The ethics of conscription and mobilisation in Ukraine and Russia
🎦 36:05-39:09⏩
Jonathan addresses the ethical implications of conscription and mobilisation in both Ukraine and Russia, acknowledging reports of people being rounded up and forced into service. He argues that while both sides are resorting to these measures, the context and necessity are fundamentally different. He explains that draft evasion in Ukraine is a criminal offence, hence the forceful apprehension of those who fail to comply. He contrasts this with Russia, where mobilisation is driven by Putin's 'weird objectives' and constitutes an unnecessary act of aggression. Jonathan stresses the existential nature of Ukraine's fight for survival, justifying their need to mobilise.
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Viewer comment from Rick from the Netherlands on media reporting of the war
🎦 39:09-42:54⏩
Jonathan reads and responds to a viewer comment from 'Rick from the Netherlands' expressing concern about how the war is being portrayed in Dutch media. The viewer highlights the lack of coverage of Ukrainian successes, the focus on Russian narratives, and the perception that the West is needlessly prolonging the conflict. Jonathan agrees that the constant negativity in media reporting, which often fails to acknowledge Ukrainian victories and resilience, can be frustrating.
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German Intelligence Assessment of the War
🎦 42:54-45:25⏩
Jonathan addresses a report from German intelligence warning of potential Ukrainian territorial losses due to Russian artillery dominance. He questions this assessment, arguing that Russia's artillery advantage is diminishing and citing reports indicating a less severe disparity than previously reported (5:1 compared to earlier ratios of 10:1 or worse). Jonathan emphasises the importance of considering the overall context, noting that while Russia's artillery production might still outpace Ukraine's by 3:1, this represents a significant improvement from earlier stages of the war.
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Zelensky warns of potential new Russian offensive in Sumy
🎦 45:25-46:51⏩
Jonathan shares Zelensky's warning about a potential new Russian offensive, possibly in the Sumy direction, where Russia is reportedly amassing troops 90 kilometers from Okhtyrka. Jonathan mentions reports of Russia destroying bridges across a reservoir, potentially to hinder Ukrainian movements and shape the battlefield in their favour.
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Over 2,000 Ukrainian children missing since the start of the war
🎦 46:51-48:01⏩
Jonathan reports on the plight of over 2,000 Ukrainian children who remain missing since the start of the war, highlighting the ongoing issue of illegal deportations and forced relocations to Russia.
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SpaceX and Starlink combating Russian jamming efforts in Ukraine
🎦 48:01-49:12⏩
Jonathan discusses SpaceX's efforts to counter Russian jamming of Starlink satellite internet systems in Ukraine, noting the challenges involved. He acknowledges Elon Musk's statement about SpaceX dedicating significant resources to this endeavor. Jonathan acknowledges the importance of SpaceX's support for Ukraine but speculates about the motivations behind it, suggesting that contractual obligations to the US Department of Defense might be a factor.
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Wrap up
🎦 49:12-49:15⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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