Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS/ANALYSIS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia are just committing military harakiri at the moment. It's incredible."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the first part of a bumper Ukraine War update for the 7th July 2024. There is a lot to get through today!
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russia-Ukraine War: Ukrainian General Staff Daily Losses
🎦 00:29-01:46⏩
Jonathan kicks off with a look at the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the 6th July. He notes that the figures show Russia lost 1,150 personnel, 2 tanks, 16 armoured personnel vehicles, 40 artillery systems (a high figure, although down from yesterday's 66), 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 50 vehicles and fuel tanks and 16 special equipment losses. Overall, this represents difficult losses for the Russians.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Oryx/Andrew Perpetua 5th and 6th July Losses Analysis - Part 1
🎦 01:46-03:21⏩
Moving on to the visually-confirmed losses from Oryx, Jonathan starts with the 5th July, reminding viewers that comms equipment losses (of which there were 29 Russian losses) can be ignored. Overall, the Russians lost 82 pieces of equipment, 53 if the comms equipment is discounted, with the remaining 19 being combat assets. Ukraine lost 37 pieces of equipment, or 34 if the 3 comms equipment losses are discounted. Of these 13 were combat assets - a figure close to that of the Russians.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Oryx/Andrew Perpetua 5th and 6th July Losses Analysis - Part 2: 5th July Ukrainian Losses Breakdown
🎦 03:21-04:41⏩
Jonathan analyses the breakdown of Ukrainian losses for the 5th July. These include an S-300PS launcher that was hit in an Iskander missile strike, a T-64 tank, three Bradleys and five IFVs (four of which may also have been Bradleys). Jonathan notes that while this is a concern, it shows that the Ukrainians are making good use of the Bradleys, and he hopes they will receive more soon.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Oryx/Andrew Perpetua 5th and 6th July Losses Analysis - Part 3: 5th July Russian Losses Breakdown
🎦 04:41-06:10⏩
Next, Jonathan examines the equipment lost by the Russians on the 5th July, including a command and control vehicle (a high-value target as it likely contained intel and expertise), a number of tanks and IFVs and several motorcycles, golf buggies, quads and trucks. Jonathan points out that the high number of unusual vehicles could indicate that the Russians are running out of conventional military vehicles.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Oryx/Andrew Perpetua 5th and 6th July Losses Analysis - Part 4: 6th July Losses Overview
🎦 06:10-07:46⏩
After thanking Andrew Perpetua and his team at Oryx for their hard work, Jonathan provides an overview of the losses for the 6th July, noting that Andrew was too tired to provide a full analysis this time. Overall, the Ukrainians lost seven combat assets, including a Nota counter-battery radar and another Bradley. The Russians lost five artillery pieces, a range of tanks and BMPs, trucks, seven Desert Cross 1000-dash-3 golf buggies and a quad. Jonathan believes the 5th and 6th were good days for the Ukrainians in terms of visually-confirmed losses, although the loss of the S-300PS launcher is a blow.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Russian Personnel Losses Since February 2022
🎦 07:46-13:33⏩
Jonathan moves on to the latest figures from Mediazona and Medusa (in collaboration with BBC News Russian), who estimate that at least 120,000 Russian troops have been killed in Ukraine since February 2022. This figure is based on an analysis of inheritance cases and is considered a conservative estimate that does not include deaths from the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics or foreign fighters. When combined with figures for those wounded in action, the true casualty figure is likely much higher - potentially as high as 500,000, in line with Ukrainian General Staff estimates.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Leaked Pentagon Documents Estimate of Russian Casualties
🎦 13:33-14:59⏩
Jonathan discusses a report in The Economist, based on leaked US Defence Department documents, that estimates that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, injured or captured in Ukraine as of mid-June 2024. This figure is significantly higher than the Mediazona and Medusa estimate, suggesting their analysis is incredibly cautious.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Implications of High Russian Losses
🎦 14:59-17:47⏩
Citing analysis by Twitter user Tendar, Jonathan discusses the wider implications of the high Russian casualty figures. He argues that the losses (which exceed all Soviet and Russian losses between 1945 and 2022 combined) are unsustainable in the long term, and that while the Kremlin is attempting to project an image of strength, Russia is failing by virtually every metric. He speculates that this is why Russia is investing so heavily in installing pro-Russian puppets in leadership positions in the West.
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Russia-Ukraine War: The Importance of Western Unity and Resolve
🎦 17:47-19:56⏩
Jonathan discusses the importance of maintaining Western unity and resolve in the face of Russian aggression. He argues that Europe, and particularly Germany, hold the key to ending the war, even if the US were to withdraw its support. He expresses concern about the rise of the populist right in Europe, noting that while the AfD is gaining traction in Germany, it is unlikely to form a government any time soon. He believes that the current German government would be strongly opposed to Russia, and that a CDU coalition government would likely maintain this stance. He expresses similar hope about the UK, but remains concerned about the situation in the US, given the potential for Trump to return to power. He also argues that the Biden administration needs to show more resolve in its support for Ukraine, and to stop "dancing to Putin's red line tunes".
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Russia-Ukraine War: The Effectiveness of Ukrainian Attrition
🎦 19:56-21:11⏩
Jonathan argues that Ukrainian attrition of Russian forces is proving incredibly effective, and that even the most conservative estimates of Russian losses are "terrible". He believes that the war is essentially already lost for Russia.
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Russia-Ukraine War: High Russian Casualties in Chasiv Yar
🎦 21:11-22:30⏩
Jonathan cites a report that Russia has lost up to 5,000 soldiers (killed, wounded or captured) in its attempts to capture a single micro-district in Chasiv Yar. He uses this example to highlight the brutal nature of Russia's tactics, which involve flattening towns and cities and inflicting heavy casualties on its own troops. He also notes that the true number of Russian casualties is likely even higher than reported, as it does not include deaths from allied nations such as Sri Lanka.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Recent Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Targets - Part 1
🎦 22:30-24:26⏩
Jonathan provides some examples of recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian targets, including an attack on a command post and ammunition depot near Hlybok in the Kharkiv region, and a strike on a logistics centre in Debaltseve in the occupied Donetsk region, where Russian tank equipment, ammunition and an expensive R-330 Zhitel automated jamming station were destroyed.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Russian "Triple Tapping" Attacks
🎦 24:26-25:21⏩
Jonathan condemns the Russian tactic of "triple-tapping", which involves shelling a target, waiting for emergency services to arrive, and then shelling the target for a third time. He describes this tactic as "horrific" and highlights a recent example in Nikopol, where Russian forces shelled emergency responders who were attempting to extinguish a fire.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Analysis of Russian Tank Stockpiles
🎦 25:21-31:46⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent analysis of Russian tank stockpiles by Twitter users HIMARS and Covert Cabal. Their analysis, based on open-source intelligence including satellite imagery, indicates that Russia has lost just over half of its pre-war tank reserves, with the rate of removal from storage declining from 115 tanks per month in early 2023 to approximately 60 tanks per month in mid-2024. This decline is likely due to the increasingly poor condition of the tanks remaining in storage, many of which are over 15 years old and in a poor state of repair. Jonathan points out that while Russia is still producing new tanks, the shrinking size and quality of its tank fleet will inevitably affect its offensive capabilities. He also notes that the analysis does not include tanks stored in garages, which could potentially be in an operational condition.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Russian Use of Chemical Weapons
🎦 31:46-33:21⏩
Jonathan cites reports from Ukrainian paramedics that Russian forces have been using chemical weapons in Chasiv Yar, noting that this is not a surprise.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Russian Claims to Have Destroyed Patriot Missile System
🎦 33:21-39:06⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian claims to have destroyed a US-supplied Patriot missile defence system belonging to Ukraine. These claims, which are based on drone footage, were initially supported by some open-source intelligence analysts, who believed that the footage showed the destruction of two M903 transporter erector launchers. However, other analysts, including John Ridge and War Vehicle Tracker, expressed scepticism, arguing that the configuration of the launchers in the footage was inconsistent with those used for the Patriot system. They also suggested that the footage of the impact had been recycled from a previous Russian claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian S-300P system. Subsequent analysis of low-resolution Sentinel satellite imagery appeared to confirm that the target was not a Patriot battery, but rather an Aspid or Spada system (which utilises French missiles), or potentially a decoy S-300PS launcher.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Ukrainian Use of Decoys
🎦 39:06-39:54⏩
Jonathan discusses the use of military decoys, noting that Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykhailo Oleshchuk has claimed that several of the targets hit by Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles in recent days were decoys.
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Russia-Ukraine War: 7th July Ukrainian Drone and Missile Strikes
🎦 39:54-42:17⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine has shot down all 13 Shahed kamikaze drones launched at Ukraine from Russia's Kursk region. However, he notes that two Iskander-M ballistic missiles did get through and struck targets in Ukraine. He also reports that a Ukrainian drone strike has caused a large fire and explosion at an ammunition depot in the Voronezh region of Russia, prompting the evacuation of local residents. He describes this as a "big one" that could significantly disrupt Russian logistics and ammunition supplies. Jonathan also discusses an explosion at a gas pipeline in Crimea, and speculates that this could be the result of a Ukrainian attack.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Miscellaneous News - Part 1
🎦 42:17-46:12⏩
Jonathan provides a round-up of other news relating to the war in Ukraine:
- An electrical substation fire in Dagestan has left more than 70,000 Russians without electricity.
- Satellite imagery confirms significant damage to an oil depot in Krasnodar following a Ukrainian drone strike.
- Moscow is to use barrage balloons to protect key infrastructure from Ukrainian drone attacks.
- Kyiv has restored two-thirds of its electricity generating capacity following Russian strikes earlier in the week.
- Ukrainian authorities have issued a warning to citizens to stock up on non-perishable food in anticipation of power cuts over the winter.
- The Atesh partisan group has reported an increase in the construction of defensive positions along the Crimean coast.
Russia-Ukraine War: Russian Military Blogger Forced to Retract Comments About Chechen Akhmat Forces
🎦 46:12-49:43⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent apology by Russian military blogger Romanov for comments he made about Chechen Akhmat forces fighting in Ukraine. Romanov had previously claimed that Akhmat units were deployed behind the front lines, where they were effectively serving as barrier troops. However, following a "conversation" with Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Akhmat unit, Romanov retracted his comments and issued a grovelling apology. Jonathan believes that the apology was forced, and that Romanov's original assessment of the Akhmat unit was likely correct.
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Russia-Ukraine War: Russian Public Opinion
🎦 49:43-51:05⏩
Jonathan reports that recent polls conducted in Russia suggest growing public support for peace talks with Ukraine. However, he cautions that these polls should be treated with scepticism, noting that one in three Russians support a nuclear strike on Ukraine, according to research from the Levada Centre.
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Russia-China: Removal of Russian Forces from Russia's Far East
🎦 51:05-53:30⏩
Citing analysis from open-source intelligence expert Kamil Galeev, Jonathan discusses the recent removal of Russian military forces from Russia's Far East. He argues that Russia has effectively demilitarised its border with China, potentially leaving it vulnerable to a Chinese invasion. He notes that Russia has traditionally viewed China as a potential adversary, and has maintained a large military presence on the border since the early days of the Cold War. However, Russia's disastrous invasion of Ukraine has forced the Kremlin to strip its eastern defences, potentially creating an opportunity for China to seize territory in the Russian Far East. Jonathan believes that the removal of Russian air defence systems from the Far East is particularly significant, noting that many of these systems are likely being redeployed to bolster Russia's defences in Ukraine and Crimea.
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Russia-Ukraine War: The Importance of Ukrainian Defence
🎦 53:30-56:31⏩
Citing analysis by YouTuber Arthur Ray, Jonathan discusses the importance of Ukraine adopting a primarily defensive posture for the remainder of 2024. He agrees with Ray that Ukraine should avoid launching large-scale offensives, and should instead focus on convincing Russia that the war is unwinnable. He believes that Ukraine's ultimate success lies not in recapturing territory, but in breaking the Russian will to fight. However, he cautions that this could take years, and will come at a heavy cost to Ukraine.
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Wrap Up
🎦 56:31-56:39⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and signs off.
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